It’s almost time for UFC 318, which means it’s definitely time for MMA Knockout’s staff predictions.
Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway slug it out for the BMF belt this weekend, where ‘The Diamond’ is certain to retire, win or lose.
MMAKO’s Mat Riddle, Drew Beaupré, and Zain Bando are here to predict the main card.
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Mat: I’m in Camp Poirier. I think sometimes fighters can have a guy’s number, and the simplest prediction would be to pick the guy who’s already up 2-0 in the rivalry. I choose Poirier by decision, or by overwhelming TKO, since Topuria laid the blueprint. (Pick: Poirier)
Drew: As suitable a matchup as this may be for Poirier’s retirement fight, trilogies always feel a bit strange when one fighter is already up 2-0.
Holloway’s second foray up to lightweight against Justin Gaethje certainly provides some hope that he could find more success here than in their 2019 meeting, and I’m going to side with “Blessed” to spoil Poirier’s retirement party in what will hopefully still be an action-packed fight. (Pick: Holloway)
Zain: It’s really hard for me to pick against Dustin Poirier in his hometown. UFC 318 was built for him, and I think he and Max Holloway will put on a show. Poirier’s feel-good story, to me, should end the right way. (Pick: Poirier)
Verdict: Poirier 2-1 Holloway
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Mat: Costa certainly isn’t as polished on the feet as Kopylov, but he’s got an underrated ground game that I think he’ll use effectively. He desperately needs this win, and I think Kopylov is just a bit too green to be fighting a guy like ‘Borrachinha’ right now. (Pick: Costa)
Drew: In his prime, I think Costa’s forward pressure and overall aggression would allow him to keep Kopylov on the back foot and nullify a lot of his offense and kicking game.
It’s hard to predict what fans should expect from “The Eraser” at this stage of his career, but given that he’s coming off losses to a pair of former middleweight champions, I’ll still take him to score his first win since 2022 and first meaningful victory since 2019. (Pick: Costa)
Zain: I’m not looking forward to this fight at all. I think Paulo Costa is a shell of who he used to be and Roman Kopylov needs a signature win. I think he gets it done here. (Pick: Kopylov)
Verdict: Costa 2-1 Kopylov
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Mat: UFC surprised me with this fight, I think Holland should be fighting up the rankings. I believe his striking to be a head above Rodriguez’s, and he has good offensive submissions to win the fight on the ground. I don’t see a route to victory for D-Rod that isn’t a Hail Mary punch. (Pick: Holland)
Drew: Holland thankfully seems committed to the welterweight division for the immediate future, and the move has paid off with back-to-back wins and a pair of Performance of the Night bonuses. Rodriguez also enters this bout on a two-fight win streak, but it’s hard to see an area where “D-Rod” really holds a major advantage in this matchup. (Pick: Holland)
Zain: This is a contender for FOTN. Kevin Holland’s consistency helps the UFC build stars, but Daniel Rodriguez is no joke either. It should be a great fight. I think he catches Rodriguez with something he doesn’t expect, delivering a highlight reel submission. (Pick: Holland)
Verdict: Unanimous for Holland
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Mat: Pitbull is rightfully the underdog in this one, I don’t think he’s UFC caliber at this point in his career. I anticipate Ige flattening him with a right hand in the opening frame. (Pick: Ige)
Drew: I’m glad to see Pitbull making a quick turnaround after his lackluster UFC debut, but if he were to lose this fight then it would probably eliminate any hope of him making a run at the featherweight title. Ige certainly isn’t an easy out, but as long as Pitbull comes out with more urgency in this fight then I think the Bellator legend should get his hand raised. (Pick: Pitbull)
Zain: I think Patricio Pitbull had an off night in his first UFC outing and feel confident in picking him against the always durable Dan Ige. To me, it’s one of those fights that screams experience trumping everything else. (Pick: Pitbull)
Verdict: Pitbull 2-1 Ige
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Mat: Zellhuber shouldn’t be as big a favorite as he is, but I definitely see him piecing Johnson up at range. Johnson always has the nuclear option in his fists, but like Rodriguez against Holland, it’s a far cry. (Pick: Zellhuber)
Drew: At first glance this matchup looks like it’s meant as a chance for Zellhuber to add a significant name to his record, but it’s easy to forget that Johnson has won two fights in a row and four out of his last six dating back to 2022.
That being said, “The Menace” is going to be at a considerable reach and height disadvantage, and unless Johnson connects with something big then I expect Zellhuber will get the job done. (Pick: Zellhuber)
Zain: Decent fight, but not the best. Michael Johnson seems to have one foot out the door, and this seems like a good resume booster for Daniel Zellhuber. (Pick: Zellhuber)
Verdict: Unanimous for Zellhuber
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