Week 2 in college football saw more of the same in the big games, where waiting to watch the market move — and then fade it — again showed better results than beating the market to the closing number.
We highlighted Duke +3 as a valuable bet, thinking that the Blue Devils would probably close shorter than that. Sure enough, 2.5 was the common spread by Saturday, but Duke bettors didn’t see five turnovers coming, turning a 14-13 game at the half into blowout city in the second half.
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The lone ranked-on-ranked game didn’t see a drastic move, as Oklahoma went from -5.5 to -4.5, but the Sooners won by two scores.
The “Bad Beat Monster” joined the big-game fray. Kansas +6.5 seemed too high and closed +5.5 at Missouri. The Jayhawks took a 21-6 lead, and even after Missouri came back to take the lead, the cover seemed almost assured. That is, until the Tigers broke a 63-yard run when simply killing the clock was their main goal and ended up winning (and covering), 42-31.
In our first matchup featured in this summer’s lookahead line bets to make, we’re one for-one on beating the market and have it matter with the CyHawk “Game of the Year.” Lined under a field goal all offseason, the game landed exactly on Iowa State by 3, giving the Cyclones a second high-profile win as they’re making moves up the college football rankings. They’re hardly alone.
Here’s a look at a few college football teams on the rise and fall, along with bets I’d make right now in some of Week 3’s biggest games.
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Movers
Oklahoma’s performance, which combined a defense that featured hits that were audibly impressive, and QB John Mateer — who’s now moved among the still-early Heisman favorites — should have put the rest of the SEC on notice. While they’ve gone from +500 to +240 to make the College Football Playoff, they’re still 23-1 to win the conference.
The Sooners moved up in the rankings, but their conference brethren Mississippi State has earned a ton of respect in the betting market.
First, the Bulldogs won as a big favorite in Week 1, bringing a line for Week 2 against Arizona State — that could have been up around 10 — down to 5.5, only to win outright as an underdog. As if the SEC needed to be tougher top-to-bottom.
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Shakers
South Florida didn’t exactly shake up the world in Week 1 with its win over Boise State. That simply gave them a leg-up on last year’s Group of Five representative in the College Football Playoff conversation. After shaking up Gainesville with a more-than-two-touchdown upset of the Gators, things are now very real in Tampa. Of course, now they’re headed to Miami, where a win over the Hurricanes would be Ali-esque.
With so many of the Power 4 teams crushing cupcakes in Week 2, one P4-G5 game didn’t go that way at all. The betting market made UCLA the favorite over UNLV, but that was a mistake. The Rebels started the game on the type of 23-0 run Larry Johnson would be proud of, and won 30-23. They have a bye week before going to Miami (OH) to start their season’s second segment, one that should decide whether there’s national attention to follow, and a potential move up the oddsboard in the futures markets that Dan Mullen’s team are qualified for.
Betting the big games for Week 3
As always, there’s no guarantee that an early investment in a lookahead line pays off, but, per our “Game of the Year” article this summer, we’ve been the market again, having already pinpointed value on Georgia Tech at +8.5.
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You’ll note that THE WINDOW’s projection for this point spread was Clemson -2.9. After re-opening as high as 6.5, the market has pulled this game down to just a shade higher than our projection at Clemson -3.5. Of course, while we get to pat ourselves on the back all week for doing the work early to get the best of the number, the game still needs to be played — win, lose or cover.
The betting market has come down to reality on Clemson, not just because of a season-opening loss at home to LSU (who didn’t exactly blow out Louisiana Tech last week), but Clemson finding itself down 16-0 to Troy was alarming.
QB Haynes King and the upset-minded Yellow Jackets get their first chance to get one this season, after taking care of Colorado on the road and a glorified walk-through with Gardner-Webb last week — and no one should be surprised if they do.
When it comes to the betting market, this is an almost-identical matchup to the one above, as Georgia was lined as a 7.5-point favorite this summer, but the perennial national title contender has since reopened and moved close to a field goal on the road in Knoxville.
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Unlike Clemson, Georgia hasn’t had a measuring-stick game (one that would presumably need to come against a team who thinks their hedges are better). Nor have the Bulldogs been the focus of an “upset watch” against an inferior team. The closest thing to a negative for Georgia is that they didn’t come close to covering against Austin Peay last week, but the Bulldogs dominated the box score (421-196 in total yards).
Meanwhile, Tennessee housed East Tennessee State a week after beating Syracuse convincingly on neutral territory. The Orange followed up that loss by barely escaping UConn in another absurd point-spread result this season.
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I have this projected at just shy of Georgia -5, so while the summer line was too high (but not quite the discrepancy of Clemson-Georgia Tech), not enough has happened to create this much of an adjustment.
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Georgia didn’t play a season-opening made-for-TV showdown this year. In 2021, the Bulldogs allowed just three points to Clemson, beat Oregon 49-3 in 2022, and crushed Clemson 34-3 in Week 1 last season. It’s entirely possible the Bulldogs have been treating the first two weeks like a makeshift preseason, and Kirby Smart is ready to unleash “aggression” on their first important opponent.
Considering Georgia has won by a collective score of 137-57 in Smart’s four games against Josh Heupel, 3.5 points shouldn’t be too much to ask.
Pick: Georgia -3.5
Look who it is! The golden boys from South Florida have jumped into the Top 25 of the polls, immediately qualifying for big-game status against the final team in their three-game non-conference gauntlet. At first glance, another point spread of more than two touchdowns seems like a gift, given how good the Bulls have looked.
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But this is a brutal spot for USF. Expecting college athletes to get up for a prime-time game with a 2024 CFP team, then a trip to “The Swamp,” and then a game with Miami, is asking too much of their schedule.
While the spreads are the same, the Gators and Hurricanes are not the same teams. Florida got a ton of credit in the marketplace for making a bowl game with a tough schedule last year, and assumptions were made that the Gators would take a step forward. Maybe that still happens, but they’ve already shown they can play with anybody, as we saw in their season-opening win over Notre Dame.
In Week 2, Miami got a quasi-bye with Bethune-Cookman, setting the Hurricanes up to be the fresher, hungrier, bigger and better team in this week’s tilt with the newly ranked Bulls.
USF could still win the American, and with banked wins over Boise State and Florida, they could make the College Football Playoff. But with a projected point spread of three touchdowns or more, even our respect for the Bulls isn’t enough to shy away from laying the points with the ‘Canes.
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Pick: Miami (FL) -17
Notre Dame QB CJ Carr leads the Fighting Irish into an important game against Texas A&M. (AP Photo/Peter Joneleit)
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You needed to be checked for a concussion just for watching last season’s slugfest between Texas A&M and Notre Dame. The Irish won 23-13 because the Aggies couldn’t get anything going on offense, with just 246 total yards. Even with a stat line of 12-of-30 passing for 100 yards from QB Conner Weigman, the game was tied 13-13 early in the fourth quarter.
Weigman lasted one more game before being replaced by freshman Marcel Reed and a seven-game winning streak for Texas A&M ensued. Reed’s now the clear-cut starter (and Weigman’s in Houston), showing increased passing efficiency in two games against UTSA and Utah State, while still being the type of dangerous running threat that Notre Dame didn’t have to face last season. The closest replica were capable runners Jayden Maiava and Will Howard, whose teams scored 35 and 34 points on the Irish.
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Notre Dame has had a week off to get back to the drawing board after losing to Miami, but this should be another game to go either way late, and, while seven points is a fair line based on previous results, the Aggies are primed for giving their full effort in an attempt at revenge, while Notre Dame would be content with a win of any kind.
Pick: Texas A&M +7
You can find more on college football’s biggest games and best bets each week from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.