HOLY CRAP! Fantasy football Week 1 was wild.
Christian McCaffrey injury worries that turned out to be no concern. The entire 49ers offense (outside of CMC & Ricky Pearsall) hitting the injury report. Kenneth Walker’s usage giving everyone (myself included) stress diarrhea and projectile vomiting. J.J. McCarthy‘s miraculous comeback and fourth-quarter heroics.
There are so many storylines and subplots that I could make this intro 2,000 words and still not cover half of what transpired in Week 1. Now that we have had a few days to process all of that we’re still left sifting through the ruins of so many fantasy rosters filled with promising rookies that weren’t utilized, wide receiver by committee situations, etc. etc.
Before we dive into all of the Week 2 action and discuss ALL OF THIS, I have to point out a change to the Primer moving forward. My goal with the Primer has always been and remains supplying everyone with in-depth but concise information to help Fantasy GMs to set their lineups & WIN.
Well, when I was writing last week’s edition, I noticed I was having trouble figuring out how and where to file in players to the categories that were in the Primer for each team section: Must-Start, Strong Starts, etc., because not every player fits into a nice, neat box. Sometimes a player has a tough matchup, but you walk into the week knowing this, and you have to play them anyway and trust that volume can outkick the bad matchup.
Well, with an aim at improving clarity, I’ve added another category to the weekly lineup for player analysis. Moving forward, every player written up weekly will fall into one of these buckets. I know this made writing this week’s Primer easier, and I hope it helps everyone.
Must-Start: Elite Players, and you don’t need my analysis to tell you to start them. They are in your lineups weekly as MUST start options.
Strong Starts: Players with strong usage and matchups that should be in consideration for most fantasy lineups.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays: Flex options for the week that could offer upside.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade: This group might have a bunch of players that you will be or will be forced to start, but their matchups offer some hesitation or could cap their ceilings.
Ok. Let’s discuss the Week 2 slate. Enjoy.
WAS vs. GB | CHI vs. DET | CLE vs. BAL | NYG vs. DAL | JAC vs. CIN | LAR vs. TEN | SEA vs. PIT | BUF vs. NYJ | SF vs. NO | NE vs. MIA | CAR vs. ARI | DEN vs. IND | PHI vs. KC | ATL vs. MIN | TB vs. HOU | LAC vs. LV
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Fantasy Football Primer
Washington Commanders vs. Green Bay Packers
GB -3.5, O/U 48.5
Washington Commanders vs. Green Bay Packers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings
Packers Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Terry McLaurin didn’t have the strong start to the season that I hoped for, considering the matchup. He had only a 13.3% target share, a 29.2% air-yard share, 0.87 yards per route run (27 receiving yards), and an 18.2% first-read share. McLaurin’s 19.3 aDot was interesting. I hope that Washington isn’t shoving him into a field-stretching-only role while Deebo Samuel takes the high-volume usage weekly, but I guess we’ll see how that works out as we move through the season. Jayden Daniels overshot McLaurin on a go route against the Giants that could have made his final stat line better, so I’m not pressing the panic button just yet. In Week 1, Green Bay was 12th in single-high rate (55.1%). Last year, McLaurin was quite good against single high with 2.42 yards per route run, a 24.8% first-read share, and 0.101 first downs per route run. It has only been one game, but I’m not sold that Carrington Valentine and Keisean Nixon can hang with McLaurin. The perimeter duo combined to allow an 83.3% catch rate and 110.4 passer rating in Week 1. I know I’m out on a limb with including McLaurin in the strong starts category this week, but it has been one game, so let’s not overreact too much.
Deebo Samuel started the season off right as he shut all the haters up. After an offseason where social media posts questioned his conditioning, Samuel finished with 22.6 fantasy points, 19 rushing yards, and a score. He ran out of the slot for 76% of his snaps, swallowing up a 33.3% target share with a 36.4% first-read share, producing 77 receiving yards (2.64 yards per route run). Samuel could continue terrorizing the NFL and making Washington look wise for investing in him this week. Last year, Green Bay gave up the 11th-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers. Javon Bullard (Week 1: 90.9% catch rate and 93.9 passer rating) didn’t exactly look like a shut-down nickel in Week 1 either.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Zach Ertz has an unimpressive but steady start to the 2025 season. He finished with a 70.3% route per dropback rate, a 16.7% target share, 1.00 yards per route run, and a 22.7% first read share (second on the team). He did have a target in the red zone against the Giants. Ertz is a decent streaming option this week against a defense that allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game and the tenth-highest yards per reception to tight ends last year.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
These players are in the gray area. Not a smash start, not a hard fade. Jordan Love was quite good in Week 1 despite posting only 15.9 fantasy points. The problem wasn’t Love’s play, but the fact that he had only 23 dropbacks as the Packers turtled and sat on their lead against the Lions. In Week 1, Love ranked seventh in yards per attempt, fourth in passer rating, eighth in catchable target rate, second in hero throw rate, and seventh in fantasy points per dropback. Love will have what looks like a tough on-paper matchup this week against Washington, but it has been only one game (not to take anything away from Washington). In Week 1, they allowed the fourth-lowest yards per attempt and passer rating and the lowest CPOE. Yes, I know this was against the Giants. I think there also has to be some context to the fact that Washington was also fourth in pressure rate. The Commanders do have a talented defense, but this is probably best viewed as a middle-of-the-road matchup for Love and company and a litmus test for Washington’s defense. Love should have clean pockets to operate from in Week 2 after facing the fourth-lowest pressure rate in Week 1. The passing volume is a concern for Love, but Jayden Daniels can hopefully push them to take to the sky more in Week 2.
The SZN of BILL is here. Croskey-Merritt rendered Chris Rodriguez a healthy scratch in Week 1. He played only 33% of the snaps against the Giants, but he turned ten carries into 82 rushing yards. He split the red zone work with Austin Ekeler, with each player getting two carries inside the 20. Croskey-Merritt posted a 20% missed tackle rate and 4.10 yards after contact per attempt. He displayed the lateral agility, vision, and footwork that I loved in college. Croskey-Merritt looks gamescript sensitive at the moment after he had only a 13.5% route per dropback rate in Week 1. That could climb into the 30% range in Week 2 if he can shove Jeremy McNichols back into the shadows. Croskey-Merritt did have three pass blocking snaps in Week 1 and didn’t allow any hurries or pressures. Croskey-Merritt will have his work cut out for him in Week 2 against a stout Packers run defense. Last week, they allowed the fewest rushing yards (tied), zero explosive runs, and the fourth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. They did give up the highest missed tackle rate (32%), but that could easily be a one-week anomaly. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Green Bay allowed the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, the third-fewest rushing yards per game, and the second-lowest missed tackle rate.
Washington had Austin Ekeler leading the way in Week 1. He had a 47% snap share (46% route share), finishing with nine touches and 57 total yards. Ekeler had a 10% target share and split the red zone carry load with Jacory Croskey-Merritt (two each). His per-touch efficiency was snoozeworthy with zero explosive runs and missed tackles. Ekeler has the veteran nod for now, but Jacory Croskey-Merritt will eat into his work if he continues what he did in Week 1 in the next few games. Ekeler has uphill sledding in Week 2 against a stout Packers run defense. Last week, they allowed the fewest rushing yards (tied), zero explosive runs, and the fourth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. They did give up the highest missed tackle rate (32%), but that could easily be a one-week anomaly. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Green Bay allowed the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, the third-fewest rushing yards per game, and the second-lowest missed tackle rate.
I understand it paid off in Week 1, but I STILL can’t trust Jayden in Reed in a fantasy lineup, right now. Yes, he led the team with a 22.7% target share and 28.6% first-read share, but if he didn’t score in Week 1, people would be more hesitant to play him. He had only a 52.2% route per dropback rate with an unsustainable 42% target per route run rate, which still only got him five targets. The Packers sat on their lead against the Lions, which limited the passing volume, but playing slow and strangling teams with the clock could be their approach in 2025. They had the second-fewest plays run in Week 1. Until Reed’s playing time changes, I can’t trust him in fantasy lineups. If it burns me, it burns me. It’s too volatile and could easily leave you with a goose egg in your lineup in any week.
Romeo Doubs‘ usage in Week 1 was similarly concerning, with only a 65.2% route per dropback rate. Yes, he led the team with 68 receiving yards, but he needed 4.53 yards per route run to post that receiving yardage line, which isn’t sustainable at all. Doubs had an 18.2% target share and 21.4% first-read share, but those marks aren’t good enough to consider embracing the Green Bay WRBC. Doubs isn’t startable and can be dropped from your rosters if you can find a better option from the waiver wire to fill out your benches.
If you drafted Matthew Golden, it’s too early to consider cutting him, BUT you can’t trust in your starting lineup for fantasy purposes until his usage changes in Green Bay. In Week 1, Golden was fifth on the team with a 43.5% route per dropback rate. He had only a 9.1% target share and 14.3% first-read share. Neither of those is remotely high enough to consider starting him in Week 2 (even in the deepest of leagues). Matt LaFleur remains an intelligent and talented head coach, but this stuff is infuriating. Sit Golden.
Tucker Kraft led the team with a 73.9% route per dropback rate while seeing an 18.2% target share. His end zone target that he converted into a touchdown saved an otherwise paltry stat line with two receptions and 16 receiving yards. Despite Kraft leading the way in routes, Green Bay still didn’t make it a point of emphasis to get the ball in his hands, with only a 7.1% first-read share. Kraft is a shaky option at tight end for Week 2 against a defense that last year allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game and ranked 16th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends.
WAS vs. GB | CHI vs. DET | CLE vs. BAL | NYG vs. DAL | JAC vs. CIN | LAR vs. TEN | SEA vs. PIT | BUF vs. NYJ | SF vs. NO | NE vs. MIA | CAR vs. ARI | DEN vs. IND | PHI vs. KC | ATL vs. MIN | TB vs. HOU | LAC vs. LV
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
DET -6, O/U 47
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Bears Players & Weekly Rankings
Lions Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Jared Goff had a rough opening to the season as the QB21 in fantasy. He ranked 21st in yards per attempt, 18th in passer rating, 17th in CPOE, and 26th in fantasy points per dropback. The Detroit offense looked out of sorts to open the season, with its offensive line having the 13th-lowest pass blocking grade for the week. Goff has been pressure sensitive for much of his career. We’ll see if he and the offense can bounce back in Week 2 as he squares off against his former offensive coordinator’s team. The Bears offer a nice matchup this week for Goff to let off some steam. In Week 1, once J.J. McCarthy settled in, he shredded this pass defense as they allowed the fourth-highest CPOE and the 12th-highest passer rating and yards per attempt. Chicago had the fourth-lowest pressure rate of Week 1, so Goff should have more time to work in Week 2.
Rome Odunze was Chicago’s clear WR1 in Week 1 with a WR19 finish in fantasy. He had a 22.9% target share (led the team), 24% air-yard share, 37 receiving yards (0.93 yards per route run), an endzone target, and a 27.8% first-read share. He posted strong scores with a 0.162 separation score and an 18.9% route win rate. If Caleb Williams can deliver catchable targets in Week 2, Odunze could have a strong day. Detroit allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers in Week 1.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Last week, David Montgomery finished with 15 touches and only 43 total yards. He had 55% of the running back rushing attempts while seeing a 32.6% route share and 10.3% target share. Jahmyr Gibbs had two red zone carries while Montgomery got one. Overall, he played only 37% of the snaps. The once vaunted Detroit offensive line generated the 12th-fewest yards before contact per attempt on the ground. Montgomery didn’t look explosive with only a 9% missed tackle rate and 2.0 yards after contact per attempt. We’ll see if he can get going this week against the Bears, who in Week 1 allowed the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt, the 13th-highest missed tackle rate, and the eighth-most yards before contact per attempt.
Last week wasn’t the start to the season that anyone rostering Jameson Williams wanted to see. He had only a 12.8% target share, 15.6% air-yard share (4.8 aDOT), 23 receiving yards (0.55 yards per route run), and a 9.5% first-read share. He wasn’t getting open with only a 2.4% route win rate against Green Bay. Hopefully, this week leads to better results, but that also depends on who is starting on the perimeter for Chicago this week. Jyalon Johnson might be back this week. I’ll update Jameson Williams‘ outlook once we get a better read on who will be available this week for the Bears defense.
Last week, D.J. Moore could have had a bigger day if Caleb Williams hadn’t airmailed him when he was wide open, but he finished with five receptions and 68 scoreless receiving yards. He had a 14.3% target share, a 37.4% air-yard share, 1.94 yards per route run, and a 16.7% first-read share. Moore was third on the team in first-read share behind Rome Odunze and Olamide Zaccheaus. His 0.125 separation score backed up the fact that his lack of boxscore production wasn’t necessarily his fault. Moore will do battle with a secondary that allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers in Week 1.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
There’s no way around it. I’m sorry, Bears fans, but Caleb Williams had a ROUGH outing in Week 1. During the beginning of the game, he was skating by with his rushing ability and checking it down (third-highest checkdown rate of Week 1), but that luck eventually ran out. He finished the week as the QB9 in fantasy thanks to 58 yards and a score on the ground. As a passer, it was tough to watch as he ranked 20th in yards per attempt, 30th in CPOE, 29th in highly accurate throw rate, 31st in catchable target rate, and he had the highest off-target rate. The Lions offer an easier matchup for Week 2 than what he dealt with against Minnesota, but I still don’t trust Williams in fantasy to take advantage of it unless he’s putting up rushing stats like Week 1 every game. In Week 1, Detroit allowed the seventh-highest yards per attempt, the fourth-highest passer rating, and the second-highest success rate per dropback. The Lions also generated the fifth-lowest pressure rate.
In Week 1, D’Andre Swift “volumed” his way to an RB27 finish as he racked up 20 touches and 65 total yards. He played 81% of the snaps while seeing a 60.5% route share, a 14.3% target share, and all of the running back rushing attempts. Swift was hopelessly inefficient with only a 6% missed tackle rate and 1.71 yards after contact per attempt. He could easily rack up the volume to be an RB2/3 again this week, but he has another brutal matchup. Last week, Detroit allowed the 13th-lowest missed tackle rate, the 11th-fewest yards before contact per attempt, and the second-lowest rushing success rate.
In his first NFL game, Luther Burden had only a 20.9% route share and 2.9% target share. I’m guessing those numbers increase in Week 2, but there’s no way to predict that accurately, and he’s unlikely to be a full-time player this week. Stash Burden on fantasy benches for a possible stretch run breakout, but he isn’t startable for Week 2.
Ben Johnson is making his talented rookies earn their spots. In Week 1, Coltson Loveland had a 44.2% route share with a 5.7% target share and 5.6% first-read share. He could make it more of an even split with Cole Kmet as soon as this week, but the bigger takeaway is that neither he nor Kmet is startable with their usage up in the air. It’s not like you’ll be missing out on a smash matchup for either player. Last year, Detroit allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
WAS vs. GB | CHI vs. DET | CLE vs. BAL | NYG vs. DAL | JAC vs. CIN | LAR vs. TEN | SEA vs. PIT | BUF vs. NYJ | SF vs. NO | NE vs. MIA | CAR vs. ARI | DEN vs. IND | PHI vs. KC | ATL vs. MIN | TB vs. HOU | LAC vs. LV
Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens
Browns Players & Weekly Rankings
Ravens Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Zay Flowers had a monstrous Week 1 as the WR1 in fantasy. He earned a 47.4% target share, a 54.2% air-yard share with 7.15 yards per route run (143 receiving yards), and a 53.3% first-read share. Just insane usage. Lamar Jackson was locked onto Flowers, and he could easily do the same this week. In Week 1, Cleveland utilized single high with 53.6% of their defensive snaps. Last year, against single high, Flowers had a 27% target per route run rate, 2.97 yards per route run, and a 30.8% first-read share. Flowers will be featured this week again, but he’ll have tough matchups on the perimeter all game against Denzel Ward (66.7% catch rate and 74.3 passer rating allowed) and Greg Newsome II (two targets defended with zero receptions allowed). Playing Flowers this week is a bet on talent (that you should make).
Last week, Cedric Tillman was the WR18 in fantasy while seeing a 17.8% target share, a 30.7% air-yard share, and 24% first-read share (second on the team, tied with Harold Fannin Jr.). His per-route efficiency wasn’t great, which was a theme with his production last year. Tillman had 1.18 yards per route run and 0.068 first downs per route run in Week 1. We’ll see if Tillman can replicate last year’s fireworks against Baltimore when he secured seven of nine targets with 99 receiving yards and two scores. The Ravens’ secondary struggled last week against Buffalo, allowing the 14th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. We’ll see if Baltimore can get on track this week, but it’s a good time for Tillman to face off against the Ravens.
Mark Andrews‘ 2025 season got off to a quiet start. He had a 59.1% route share but only had a 5.3% target share (one target) and 6.7% first-read share. Andrews could easily have a bounce-back game against Cleveland this week. During his last four regular-season meetings against this defense, he has averaged four receptions and 53.5 receiving yards with four receiving scores (he scored in three of four games). Last year, Cleveland allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game and the 11th-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends.
Last week, David Njoku had a quiet game as Harold Fannin Jr. stole the Cleveland tight end show. Njoku still had a 79.2% route share, but he only saw an 11.1% target share with 0.97 yards per route run (37 receiving yards) and an 8% first-read share. This seems to be the possible “get right” matchup for a bunch of players in this game. It could be for Njoku as well. Last year, in his only meeting with the Ravens, he secured five of his seven targets with 61 receiving yards (one score) as the TE7 for the week. Last year, Baltimore allowed the ninth-most receiving yards, the tenth-highest yards per reception, and the 12th-most fantasy points to tight ends.
Is Harold Fannin Jr. 2024 Isaiah Likely? Doomed to disappoint us in fantasy after a wonderful Week 1 performance? I don’t know, to be quite honest. Ok, here’s the good. Last week, Fannin Jr. had a 20% target share, 2.17 yards per route run (63 receiving yards), and a 24% first-read share as the TE6 in fantasy. Alright, now it’s time for the negative. Fannin Jr. had only a 60.2% route share and a ridiculous 31% target per route run rate. Both of those usage metrics scream regression. It’s unlikely that he continues to see a target per route run rate that high, so unless he sees an uptick in routes, his usage is likely to come crashing back to Earth. Cleveland also utilized two tight end sets with 50.7% (second-highest in the NFL) of their offensive plays in Week 1. That’s a big difference from their 16.5% (tenth-lowest) snap usage of the same personnel grouping last season. I would sit Fannin Jr. this week to see how his usage shakes out, but I know that’s likely not the world that many people are living in after Week 1 with a BEVY of tight end injuries hitting fantasy teams. The matchup and talent are there for this usage to continue for at least one more week. Last year, Baltimore allowed the ninth-most receiving yards, the tenth-highest yards per reception, and the 12th-most fantasy points to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Dylan Sampson pulled off his best Duke Johnson impression in Week 1 as the RB9 in fantasy (PPR). He played 45% of the snaps, had 57.1% of the rushing work (12 carries), managed a 29.2% route share, and finished with 20 touches and 93 total yards. He had an unsustainable 17.8% target share. Unless his routes increase, he likely won’t see that much work in the passing game weekly. He had eight targets while running only 14 routes. Sampson has to run more routes weekly, or his target count will drop because that target per route run rate isn’t replicable. He was effective on the ground with a 25% missed tackle rate despite having only 2.4 yards per carry. His offensive line is more to blame, though, as they generated only 0.25 yards before contact per attempt for him. Sampson will have to rack up his production in Week 2 through the air again, as Baltimore is a top-shelf run defense. In Week 1, they allowed the 14th-lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the third-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Sampson should see work through the air against a defense that last year allowed the fourth-most receiving yards and the third-highest yards per reception to running backs.
Last week, Jerry Jeudy had a solid start to the season as the WR32 in fantasy. He had a 17.8% target share, a 40.9% air-yard share, 1.47 yards per route run, and a team-leading 28% first-read share. Last season, in his two meetings against Baltimore, he was the WR37 and WR36 in weekly scoring while seeing a 28% target share, 30.9% air-yard share, and 31.7% first-read share. He had 1.87 yards per route run while averaging 71 receiving yards. The Ravens’ secondary struggled last week against Buffalo, allowing the 14th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. We’ll see if Baltimore can get on track this week, but Jeudy should lead the way and see plenty of volume from Joe Flacco this week.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Joe Flacco finished Week 1 as the QB19 in fantasy. He ranked 18th in yards per attempt, 24th in passer rating, 11th in CPOE, and fifth in highly accurate throw rate. Flacco directed an offense that was eighth in neutral passing rate. Cleveland will be pass-heavy this season, whether in neutral environments or because they are likely trailing in games. Flacco is a steady QB2 again this week based upon volume alone. Toss out Baltimore’s Week 1 pass defense stats, as they played Josh Allen, who tore them apart. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Baltimore allowed the second-fewest yards per attempt, the lowest passer rating, and the fourth-lowest CPOE. In a divisional game and coming off a tough loss, Baltimore likely resembles last year’s pass defense excellence.
Jerome Ford isn’t a player that I’m rushing to get in a fantasy lineup anytime soon. Last week, he did play 53.9% of the snaps, but he turned that into only seven touches and five total yards. Dylan Sampson was integral to the offensive game plan when he was on the field, while Ford soaked up empty-calorie snaps. Sit Ford as the backfield could tilt more in Sampson’s direction in Week 2.
Sit Bateman this week. Last week, he had a 15.8% target share with only 0.56 yards per route run (10 receiving yards) and a 20% first-read share. In Week 1, Cleveland utilized single high with 53.6% of their defensive snaps. Last year, against single high, Bateman had only a 13.2% target share, 1.43 yards per route run, and a 14.3% first-read share. Bateman will have tough matchups on the perimeter all game against Denzel Ward (66.7% catch rate and 74.3 passer rating allowed) and Greg Newsome II (two targets defended with zero receptions allowed).
DeAndre Hopkins was only a part-time player in Week 1. He had only a 50% route share with a 10.5% target share and 6.7% first-read share. He isn’t startable until his role in the offense changes.
WAS vs. GB | CHI vs. DET | CLE vs. BAL | NYG vs. DAL | JAC vs. CIN | LAR vs. TEN | SEA vs. PIT | BUF vs. NYJ | SF vs. NO | NE vs. MIA | CAR vs. ARI | DEN vs. IND | PHI vs. KC | ATL vs. MIN | TB vs. HOU | LAC vs. LV
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys
Giants Players & Weekly Rankings
Cowboys Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Dak Prescott played well in Week 1, but he was left walking away empty-handed with only 7.8 fantasy points. Thanks to two Javonte Williams short touchdowns, some underthrown seam balls, and his receivers dropping other passes, Prescott’s stat line doesn’t give him the respect he deserves. Prescott had the most yards lost in Week 1 due to drops (61). In Week 1, he was sixth in catchable target rate and third in hero throw rate while ranking seventh in aDOT. Prescott is primed for a better week against the Giants. In Week 1, they gave up the 11th-highest yards per attempt, the 12th-highest passer rating, and the fifth-highest CPOE. This is while their talented defensive line had the eighth-lowest pressure rate.
Javonte Williams looks like Dallas’s new workhorse running back. He played 80.4% of the snaps in Week 1 with a 68.2% rushing share and a 71.4% route share. He finished with 20.4 PPR points, much of that due to his two-score day, but he also had 17 touches and 64 total yards. We didn’t see much in the name of efficiency as he had zero explosive runs, zero missed tackles forced, and only 2.13 yards after contact per attempt. Williams was constantly slammed into the A gaps in Week 1, so I hope there are better days ahead for his efficiency running behind an offensive line that ranked second-best in yards before contact per attempt. Williams could also be aided by what looks like another year of the Giants fielding a pitiful run defense. Last week, which lined up with their rough 2024 metrics, the Giants allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and they had the second-lowest stuff rate.
I talked about it in last week’s Primer, but Week 1 wasn’t the week to be bullish for George Pickens‘ outlook. Well, we have made it to Week 2, and it should be wheels up for Pickens. Last week, Pickens had only an 11.8% target share with 30 receiving yards (0.94 yards per route run) with a 19.4% air-yard share, and a 13.6% first-read share. Those numbers should all come up against the Giants. Last week, the Giants continued their trend of single high heavy defense (eighth-highest rate, 64.9%). Last year, against single high, Pickens had a 32% target per route run, 3.25 yards per route run, and 0.137 first downs per route run. He should cook this week. Last week, New York allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Wan’Dale Robinson is up to the same PPR cheat code stuff in 2025. Last week, he drew a 21.6% target share and 34.8% first-read share as he finished with six receptions and 55 receiving yards. He did actually get a red zone target as well, so maybe I’m underselling him a bit here. If he’s going to see this type of volume again weekly in 2025, he’ll be in play as a PPR flex play weekly. Just understand that you’ll probably get 10-11 PPR points in the best case of circumstances and no more. Last year, he had at least double-digit PPR points nine times, but only eclipsed 15 PPR points three times.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Russell Wilson won’t grace any starting lineup of mine in Week 2. I don’t care if it’s Superflex or not. He was a sitting duck last week and honestly looked lost. He finished Week 1 with a 45.9% completion rate, 4.5 yards per attempt, and a 59.3 passer rating. This is all while he also sustained the fourth-highest pressure rate. Dallas held Philly to 6.6 yards per attempt and the 13th-lowest CPOE. I expect Wilson to be under duress again this week against a Dallas front that led the NFL in pressure rate in Week 1. Wilson might get pulled at some point for Jaxson Dart. While I hope it doesn’t happen (for Dart’s sake), I can’t rule it out.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. opened this season as the team’s workhorse back, but he was left with little to show for it. He played 72.6% of the snaps with a 58% route share, but he finished with only 12 touches and 35 total yards. The offensive line was horrendous, with -0.2 yards before contact per attempt generated. Tracy’s 10% missed tackle rate in Week 1 wasn’t amazing, but his 2.60 yards after contact per attempt was solid. He might not have a chance this week behind this offensive line, but Dallas’s revamped run defense didn’t look any better in Week 1. Yes, I know that was against the Eagles, but when you allow the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-most rushing yards, and have the fourth-lowest stuff rate, it leaves a tiny hope candle lit for Tracy Jr. for Week 2. Tracy Jr. is a volume bet only for fantasy purposes, and you hope that he can get into the endzone. If he doesn’t, he’s likely sunk in fantasy for Week 2.
Last week, Jake Ferguson had a 77.1% route share with a 17.6% target share and 22.7% first-read share while he finished with five receptions and 23 receiving yards. The usage is exactly what we wanted to see, despite the ending result not being amazing for fantasy purposes. Last week, the Giants continued their trend of single high heavy defense (eighth-highest rate, 64.9%). Last year, against single high, Ferguson had only 1.04 yards per route run and a 16.8% first-read share. Last year, the Giants also held tight ends to the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game and the fourth-fewest receiving yards. Ferguson needs a touchdown to pay off for fantasy this week, likely.
WAS vs. GB | CHI vs. DET | CLE vs. BAL | NYG vs. DAL | JAC vs. CIN | LAR vs. TEN | SEA vs. PIT | BUF vs. NYJ | SF vs. NO | NE vs. MIA | CAR vs. ARI | DEN vs. IND | PHI vs. KC | ATL vs. MIN | TB vs. HOU | LAC vs. LV
