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As anyone who bets knows (or should know), lines are highly fluid and it is very likely that by the time you read this, the odds presented here will have changed. If the lines have moved in your favor, then good for you. If they moved toward our recommended side, then it’s just a reminder to keep up with our latest picks at the blog.

Javonte Williams Over 2.5 receptions (Was +100 at BetMGM, now -110)

I’m going to take Jerry Jones at his word when he says rookie Jaydon Blue isn’t ready to play a big role yet. I’m going to keep this simple. It’s plus money on a line that’s less than both Williams’ career average of 2.9 and our projection of just over 2.5 receptions. His average would be higher but his totally ineffective rushing in ’24 on the Broncos resulted in him playing fewer snaps and he only averaged 2.0 receptions.

He definitely looked better running the ball in Week 1, Blue, like I said may not be ready to play significant snaps and Miles Sanders had a really costly fumble vs the Eagles. Williams has gone Over 19-15 for this prop when he has at least 11 carries, so when he is the primary back, he hits this plus money bet over 50% of the time.

David Montgomery Over 10.5 rush attempts (-130 FanDuel, BetMGM)

Before the season started, I thought Jahmyr Gibbs would get more carries per game than Montgomery, but in Week 1 Montgomery outrushed him 11 to 9. While I like Jared Goff and the passing game to have success and help build a big lead vs. Chicago in the first 2.5 quarters, we should hopefully see Montgomery feast in the last quarter and a half.

This line was -110 at BetMGM when it opened so you’ll want to move quickly on this.

He averaged 12.7 per game last season and that’s what the model projects. He has gone Over 10.5 carries in 12 of his last 17 games and in nearly 80% of games in his career. He may be nearing the end of his career and finish the season with under 180 total carries, but expect him to have 12+ at least to start the season.

Breece Hall Over 80.5 rushing + receiving yards (-120 Fanatics)

I loved what I saw from Breece Hall in Week 1. He benefited from the defensive “gravity” that Justin Fields, as a running threat, provides while also keeping the workhorse RB role (19 rushes) over Braelon Allen (six rushes). Allen ran for a TD so maybe he gets the lion’s share of goal line carries, which is why Hall ATD isn’t as good a bet in my opinion. 

With a career 92 rushing + receiving yard average (22-19 over 78.5) and a projection for 90 here, there is 11 yards of wiggle room. Hall started slowly in his second season recovering from a season-ending injury his rookie season, but when he regained his form, he had three straight of at least 90 yards. He then had another rough stretch with six of seven Unders, but then he ripped off 12 Overs in 14 games from the end of ’23 to midway through 2024. With his 145 yards in Week 1, I think he’s in one of his high production grooves.

Zach Charbonnet Over 9.5 receiving yards (-118 BetMGM)

Many expected Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker would split RB snaps in Klint Kubiak’s offense. Charbonnet had 12 rushes for 47 yards and a TD. Walker had just 10 rushes for 20 yards. The good thing for this week is Charbonnet didn’t have any receptions, so we’re getting a really low line.

He had at least 10 receiving yards in 14 of 17 games last season and averaged more receiving yards on the road (19) than at home (13) in his career. 

Ashton Jeanty Under 91.5 rushing yards (-115 BetMGM)

The Raiders anemic rushing attack a year ago was supposed to be fixed by Jeanty and Geno Smith at QB. But they did not radically improve the team’s offensive line run blocking. The Raiders averaged just 80 rushing yards per game last season, and we estimate that a workhorse RB like Jeanty may only get 75% of team rushing yards. So a line of 92.5 projects to 120 rushing yards as a team, and this team is not 50% better on the ground with just Jeanty and Geno.

Jeanty’s dominance in college came from his ability to break tackles and have defenders bounce off him. That simply does not happen at the NFL level unless you are Derrick Henry. He did have 19 rush attempts (just 38 yards) in Week 1 so oddsmakers will likely set him at 17.5 to 18.5 carries and I think he’ll need to average more than 5 yards per carry to go Over.

In his final season at Boise State, Jeanty averaged 7.0 YPC, but he capitalized on defenses who underrated him. He averaged 13.4, 7.7 (vs Oregon), 11.5, 10.0, and 14.3 YPC in his first five games. But once the word was out about the need to really wrap him up to bring him down, his averages were much lower with 7.0, 3.9, 4.8, 6.1, 5.0, 8.9, 6.1, 6.5, and 3.5 vs the best defense he faced, Penn State, during the College Football Playoff.

Other Model Values

These are our latest Week 2 projections in comparison to the betting lines at the time we published. When there is projection value,  we list the full bet and the sportsbook with the best line. You can use this to see if the model agrees with your personal best bets.

RUSHINGRUSHRUSH LINERUSHYDRUSHYD LINEATDYES ATDRUSH+REC YDRUSHYD+RECYDDerrick Henry (BAL)16.6-10395.50.95-210, 67.7% (FD)113-Saquon Barkley (PHI)18.519.59989.50.58o0.5116Over 105.5 (-114 DK)Josh Jacobs (GB)17.818.58577.50.92-185, 64.9% (DK)106Over 91.5 (-118 MGM)Kyren Williams (LAR)17.9Under 19.5 (-110 MGM)7974.50.99-170, 63% (DK)9091.5Jonathan Taylor (IND)17Under 19.5 (-110 MGM)7875.50.5o0.59090.5Jordan Mason (MIN)14.5Over 13.5 (+108 FD)74Over 57.5 (-110 MGM)0.3o0.582-Tony Pollard (TEN)17.817.57366.50.38o0.59088.5Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)12.4Under 14.5 (-130 FAN)7265.50.82-155, 60.8% (FAN)10397.5Christian McCaffrey (SF)13.4-72Under 83.5 (-115 MGM)0.51-107-Bucky Irving (TB)16.315.56861.50.61o0.58781.5Chuba Hubbard (CAR)14.615.56764.50.74+100, 50% (MGM)8180.5James Conner (ARI)12.7Under 15.5 (-110 MGM)6664.50.8-155, 60.8% (MGM)8682.5Bijan Robinson (ATL)14.8Under 16.5 (-118 MGM)6265.50.67o0.58996.5Ashton Jeanty (LV)14.2Under 17.5 (-125 MGM)6267.50.68-120, 54.5% (MGM)81Under 91.5 (-115 MGM)Breece Hall (NYJ)12.912.56160.50.4o0.590Over 80.5 (-120 FAN)James Cook (BUF)13.2Over 12.5 (-105 FAN)6155.50.78-130, 56.5% (DK)8172.5Aaron Jones (MIN)12Over 9.5 (-108 FD)61Over 35.5 (-114 FD)0.48o0.584-D`Andre Swift (CHI)14.415.55960.50.31o0.579-De`Von Achane (MIA)11.3Under 14.5 (-130 MGM)5959.51.01-110, 52.4% (MGM)9093.5Trey Benson (ARI)8.98.559Over 34.5 (-115 MGM)0.18o0.562-Javonte Williams (DAL)13Under 15.5 (-130 MGM)5555.50.71+120, 45.5% (MGM)7573.5Chase Brown (CIN)13.6Under 19.5 (-135 MGM)54Under 70.5 (-112 DK)0.86-170, 63% (DK)78Under 95.5 (-114 DK)David Montgomery (DET)12.1Over 10.5 (-130 MGM)5440.50.58o0.570Over 57.5 (-115 MGM)Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG)11.6Under 14.5 (-115 MGM)5353.50.42o0.57370.5RJ Harvey (DEN)10.6Over 7.5 (-115 MGM)53Over 31.5 (-115 MGM)0.37o0.566-Travis Etienne (JAC)11.5Under 14.5 (-115 MGM)5256.50.29o0.57276.5Alvin Kamara (NO)12.712.55149.50.44-7877.5Lamar Jackson (BAL)7.4-5046.50.26o0.550-J.K. Dobbins (DEN)10.4Under 12.5 (-118 MGM)4946.50.41o0.55661.5Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS)11.2Over 9.5 (-114 DK)4738.50.43+250, 28.6% (DK)62-Zach Charbonnet (SEA)10.710.54642.50.5+190, 34.5% (MGM)6557.5Omarion Hampton (LAC)12Under 13.5 (+100 MGM)45Under 54.5 (-110 MGM)0.45o0.562Under 71.5 (-110 MGM)Jalen Hurts (PHI)9.79.54444.50.66o0.544-TreVeyon Henderson (NE)8.97.54431.50.32o0.55853.5Dylan Sampson (CLE)12.8-43-0.37o0.564-Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)10.610.54336.50.48o0.55446.5Isiah Pacheco (KC)11.1Over 7.5 (-148 FD)4235.50.26o0.55147.5Jayden Daniels (WAS)8.69.54144.50.17o0.541-Jaylen Warren (PIT)9.1Under 12.5 (-114 FD)4049.50.3o0.56460.5Kyler Murray (ARI)55.53825.50.37o0.538-Bhayshul Tuten (JAC)9-38Over 16.5 (-110 MGM)0.39+255, 28.2% (MGM)52-Kenneth Walker III (SEA)9.8Under 12.5 (-114 FD)3746.50.38o0.55658.5Caleb Williams (CHI)5.25.536Over 25.5 (-115 MGM)0.11o0.536-Nick Chubb (HOU)11.6Under 13.5 (-115 MGM)35Under 49.5 (-115 MGM)0.42o0.539-Drake Maye (NE)4.75.53325.50.21o0.533-Josh Allen (BUF)7.6Over 6.5 (-114 FD)3335.50.72-105, 51.2% (DK)33-Kareem Hunt (KC)9.2-3226.50.3o0.53937.5Keaton Mitchell (BAL)4.6-31-0.17o0.538-Tyler Allgeier (ATL)7.9-3026.50.17o0.535-Najee Harris (LAC)7.8-30-0.27o0.542-Austin Ekeler (WAS)7.7Over 5.5 (-135 MGM)2921.50.22o0.55547.5Kenneth Gainwell (PIT)9.4Under 10.5 (-118 MGM)2934.50.21o0.538Under 50.5 (-115 MGM)Daniel Jones (IND)6.2Over 5.5 (+100 MGM)2826.50.41o0.528-Braelon Allen (NYJ)7.7-2817.50.29o0.536-Ray Davis (BUF)7.3-28-0.28o0.532-Bo Nix (DEN)5.64.527Over 19.5 (-110 MGM)0.19o0.527-Cam Skattebo (NYG)6-26-0.26o0.540-DJ Giddens (IND)5.6-26-0.22+550, 15.4% (MGM)36-Rico Dowdle (CAR)5-2518.50.21+600, 14.3% (DK)3329.5Spencer Rattler (NO)3.73.52416.50.04-24-Patrick Mahomes (KC)4.63.52423.50.19o0.524-Jaylen Wright (MIA)5.5-23-0.11o0.523-Ollie Gordon (MIA)5.4-23-0.24+475, 17.4% (MGM)29-Ty Johnson (BUF)4.4-23-0.24o0.535-Kaleb Johnson (PIT)6-23-0.2+500, 16.7% (MGM)29-Rachaad White (TB)5.9-23Over 13.5 (-110 MGM)0.27+450, 18.2% (MGM)36Over 22.5 (-110 MGM)Jerome Ford (CLE)5.7-22-0.19o0.534-Bryce Young (CAR)33.52115.50.21+475, 17.4% (MGM)21-Jaydon Blue (DAL)4.4-21-0.24o0.532-Miles Sanders (DAL)4.6-21-0.15o0.528-J.J. McCarthy (MIN)3.93.52017.50.09o0.520-Justice Hill (BAL)4.6-20-0.31+450, 18.2% (DK)38-

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