With the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Gameweek 4 deadline just two days away, we’ll be hearing from our panel of guest writers and pundits.
Here, eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his weekly Q&A, giving his opinion on Crystal Palace assets and the keep-or-sell dilemma facing owners of Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest players.
You can read his Gameweek 4 Wildcard drafts here.
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Q: What to do with Nottingham Forest assets? The defence, in particular, because I’m afraid we won’t see a clean sheet ever again!
(via Pakhetafpakhetop)
A: The sacking of Nuno Espirito Santo and the appointment of Ange Postecoglou has come as a blow to all of us invested in the Forest defence. Many of us have even doubled up, expecting them to be defensive contribution (DefCon) monsters.
What we do know about Ange is that his defenders will be unlikely to rack up many DefCon points, so that lowers the stock of someone like Murillo (£5.5m), who has limited attacking threat, significantly. Does this mean they will never keep a clean sheet under Ange? No. There will be games where they do keep clean sheets, like they did in Ange’s first season when he had his first choice backline of Micky van de Ven (£4.6m), Destiny Udogie (£4.4m), Cristian Romero (£5.0m) et al fit.
You obviously don’t buy their defenders now but I think it is worth holding their players at least till the Burnley and Sunderland fixtures are out of the way in Gameweeks 5 and 6. After that, they are very much sellable as the schedule turns for the worse significantly.
Q: Is buying Morgan Rogers for Ismaila Sarr too contrarian?Q. Aston Villa have been appallingly bad this season. Regardless of their new signings, why aren’t you advocating for an immediate fire sale of their assets?
(via Hairy Potter and FPL Virgin)
A: Aston Villa are the only team in England’s top four divisions yet to score this season. That is quite abysmal whichever way you slice it.
I think Morgan Rogers (£7.0m), in particular, has been poor. He hasn’t looked as sharp as last year and his passes have often been overhit/underhit or misplaced, while the driving runs from midfield have been absent.
They have lost a lot of creativity; Leon Bailey, Jacob Ramsey (£5.4m), Marcus Rashford etc have all left, which has made the team a lot more predictable. The signings will help, though, especially Harvey Elliott (£5.4m), who I really rate.
I wouldn’t be buying Rogers right now, despite Villa’s kind fixture schedule. At the same time, I don’t think there are many midfielders I would rush to buy if I owned Rogers. Maybe Antoine Semenyo (£7.4m), but that’s about it with Ismaila Sarr’s (£6.5m) injury.
With Ollie Watkins (£8.9m), he has had eight shots in the box this season. Only Semenyo (nine) and Erling Haaland (£14.1m, 13) have fared better. Their next opponents, Everton, are in the bottom five for expected goals conceded (xGC) so far, then they play Sunderland and Burnley in Gameweeks 5 and 7. You could move Watkins to Viktor Gyokeres (£9.0m) or Haaland if money/transfers allow but again, looking at those opponents, I don’t think they are a fire sale.
I do trust Unai Emery to get it right eventually. They have the talent, they have the manager and I am backing Villa to turn it around over the next four Gameweeks.
Q: Is Jean-Philippe Mateta still a good option for the next couple of games, given the injuries to Ismaila Sarr and Adam Wharton?
(via @ScoopMcc)
A: When Eberechi Eze (£7.5m) departed for Arsenal, I still had faith in Crystal Palace’s attack because they had Adam Wharton (£5.0m) in midfield. He is, in my opinion, one of the best ball progressors in the league. Wharton and Will Hughes (£4.9m) are vital to their midfield structure.
Palace also play a very structured counter-attacking system under Oliver Glasner and Sarr is always their outball when they do break. They will indeed miss the Senegalese international and I’m guessing Justin Devenny (£4.5m) or Romain Esse (£4.9m) will need to step up in his absence.
Their numbers are not great, though.
Mateta has had just three shots in the box over the three matches and Palace are ranked eighth for xG (4.09) overall. While he’s still a good option, his stock has definitely lowered in my eyes with these injuries to key players. I think Palace will score fewer goals, but Mateta’s goal share might increase.
It feels like one I would hold, but not necessarily rush to buy. Jorgen Strand Larsen (£6.4m) interests me more from next week if he is declared fit.
Q: Regarding Palace defenders, is Daniel Munoz worth the extra £0.5m over Maxence Lacroix and £1.0m over Chris Richards?
(via @Coleye1977)
A: No defender has created more big chances (two) than Daniel Munoz (£5.5m) thus far. Wth Sarr out, I think the onus to provide goals will only increase for the Colombian international. I think he’s the best £5.5m defender pick for the short term, but all three of Maxence Lacroix (£5.0m), Chris Richards (£4.5m) and Munoz are great picks in their own right.
I think if you’re looking for a short-term, explosive pick, then Munoz is ideal to capitalise on the good fixture run and then move on to another defender in the same price bracket.
Lacroix and Richards are more set-and-forgets who you can retain in your team for a longer period, bench in tougher fixtures or even use them as DefCon beasts in the tougher games. It all depends on the structure of the rest of your squad and how you are spending the £1.0m/£0.5m saved. I do think Munoz is a fantastic pick, though.
Q: Is Patrick Dorgu still a hold or should I move him to Marcos Senesi or another £4.5m/£4.6m defender?
(via Vasshin)
A: FPL managers who started the season with Patrick Dorgu (£4.5m) would have no doubt been eyeing the Burnley fixture in Gameweek 3. It’s a bit of a red flag that he got zero minutes after playing just 45 minutes midweek against Grimsby.
The fixture run in the short term for Manchester United is quite tough, with only the Sunderland match in Gameweek 7 looking good for a clean sheet. That being said, without a proper defensive midfielder, I feel they will continue to ship goals regardless.
I would indeed look to get rid of Dorgu, therefore. I think the entry point for Marcos Senesi (£4.6m) is great this week, with Bournemouth having four home games over the next six matches.
