The good news for this column is it absolutely crushed it on spreads in Week 1, sweeping the board on all of our picks. The bad news is the totals were hilarious: the Panthers couldn’t score at all, so that Over didn’t sniff anything and the Jets-Steelers Under may end up being the biggest laugher of the season. Everything in Week 1 went under except that game.

Heading into Week 2, I think I’m going to steer clear of the totals and probably focus more on the sides, of which, like Thanksgiving, there are many I would like to partake in. Going back and looking at the data from the last few years in the first two weeks of the season, I think there’s a clear case of NFL teams falling in line with their new approach to training camp and preseason and how it forces teams to largely ramp up to the start the regular season. 

The average margin of victory for Weeks 1 and 2 of 2023 and 2024 and Week 1 of 2025 is right at a full touchdown. That includes a decent handful of abberation blowouts (see: the Saints winning by more than 50 points in the first two weeks of the season last year), so the reality of the first two weeks — one that’s born out in the point spreads — is we’re going to get lots of close games. Couple close games with lots of low totals and you need to be cognizant about which spreads you’re betting. 

With that in mind, I’m going to try and focus on teams with shorter spreads and/or teams with high game totals (45 points or more) that I think are capable of blowing out the opposition. For all of my picks — plus a slew of great insight from other experts — make sure to join SportsLine and turn on alerts. 

Below we’ve got my five favorite bets of the week, the three teams that are terrifying me, a couple player props I love for this weekend and my best bets for anytime touchdowns. Let’s get into some NFL betting.

Best betsLions -6 vs. Bears

Oh buddy, this line is going to move after Thursday night. The Lions were anemic against the Packers in Week 1 and it was reasonably chalked up to a lot of offseason changes (offensive line attrition and the arrival of two new coordinators). Then the Bears were great early and terrible on offense for three quarters and it kind of became an enigma. Then the Packers did what they did to the Commanders in prime time. I don’t know if this line will move a full point by Sunday, but I wouldn’t be shocked: the Packers might have the best defense in football. The Bears are … not great. The Lions have heard nothing but chatter all offseason about Ben Johnson leaving causing them to crater, and while I don’t think Dan Campbell will do anything untoward that would dip into the unsportsmanlike territory, he will definitely run the score up here. The Lions are 10-0 off a loss, scoring more than 30 points per game in those outings. Betting on the Lions this week is like betting on Scottie Scheffler to birdie a hole after he bogeys. It’s not free money, but it’s +EV. Get them at -6 while you can — it might not matter when they’re up by a million late in the fourth. 

Eagles -120 at Chiefs

If you read my Bet It Now column earlier this week, you could have gotten the Eagles at PLUS points or this money line at an eight-cent discount. These type of edges matter a ton in the NFL, but if you didn’t bet Philly then, I think it’s still fine to take them now. Strip away the aura of the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, toss a different uniform on this team, call them the Arkansas Animals (or Minnesota Martians or whatever your favorite generic team name is), compare the roster to the Eagles and tell me who you would take in this spot. I could be wrong! The Chiefs are the Chiefs! Mahomes and Travis Kelce might show up big in this spot, and they are operating behind a much-improved offensive line. But I still don’t know if they’re slowing down the Eagles. I would expect Philly to sling the ball a bit early in this matchup and then feed Saquon Barkley. The Eagles are a better team and have the better roster right now — and they are winning this game. 

49ers -3 at Saints

Again, hopefully you read the Bet It Now column, because you’d be squatting on some pretty choice value for the total in this game: it was sitting at 42.5 and has dipped down to 40.5 as of Friday morning, largely because Brock Purdy is guaranteed not to play and Jauan Jennings might miss out as well. I wouldn’t play the total there personally (although if you want to try and thread the needle on a half-unit buyback on the Over for a window pregame or play it live, I don’t oppose that at all). What I would do is invest in Kyle Shanahan’s ability to get the most out of a quarterback when no one expects it by backing the Niners at a short number. Mac Jones has an incredible pedigree as a prospect (shoutout to the prestigious Bolles High School and that little college he attended), was a first-round pick and has had success as a starting NFL quarterback. Jennings and George Kittle being out is a problem, but the Saints are a wounded team trying to rebuild. The 49ers will want to play ball control and this shouldn’t be a blowout, but Robert Saleh might have this defense cooking and we could be primed for a Christian McCaffrey blowup game in this spot. The Saints will fight valiantly, but the 49ers might be too much even on their last legs.  

Jaguars +3.5 at Bengals

Not to beat a dead horse with a broken record, but this was in the Bet It Now column too, although the CLV hasn’t popped up as of Friday. I still like the Jaguars, though, mainly because I think this game turns into a total shootout (Vegas agrees, the total is a too-high-to-bet 49 at the moment). That gives us variance and a real chance to have the Jaguars win the game. Joe Burrow’s numbers in high-totaled games over the last two or three years will be cited a lot and they are incredible. But a lot of those monster games were in losses. Trevor Lawrence looked fantastic early against Carolina before the Jags offense turtled following a lightning break. I expect a lot of points in this game and it to end up within a field goal. If you’re giving me the Jags with the hook I’m happy to take it against a Bengals defense that might be improved but isn’t elite yet by any stretch.  

Seahawks +3 at Steelers

I know, I know. I took the Steelers Under last week, it went laughably Over. Now the Pittsburgh game has the lowest total on the board once again and I’m diving right back in, headfirst into the shallow end. What could go wrong? I’m just not buying entirely that the Steelers will be involved in shootouts this season. I also firmly believe Pittsburgh’s defense will stand up better at home than it did last week, particularly without the unit having to face a rushing quarterback. The Seahawks defense looks really sharp as well and should be able to slow this game down while feeding the rushing attack. Ryan Grubb won’t put Sam Darnold in disastrous spots here unless the Seahawks are down big. I think we see a lot of running and a lot of running clock in this one and it ends up being a 17-14 or 20-17 barn burner at best. 

Three teams that scare me in Week 2

If we’re going to make confident bets, we at least need to acknowledge certain things that are red flags as well, so here’s where my Spidey Sense is tingling for the upcoming week.

Dallas Cowboys

Much better than people expected in the opener against Philly, the Cowboys got the massive advantage of SpitGate taking away the Eagles’ best player. With Jalen Carter, I firmly believe the Eagles would have covered that game. The Giants stunk against the Commanders, which was made even more perplexing by the Packers picking up massive chunk yardage against Washington’s defense, but Russell Wilson is battling for his job and there’s no guarantee we don’t get second half Jaxson Dart here. I would tread cautiously with Dallas in this spot, particularly if you’re going with them in Survivor leagues. I have zero interest in laying the six points. 

Arizona Cardinals

One of the teams listed in my “Bet Now” column, this does look like some value, because the Cards are likely to close above seven points. But the total in this game is incredibly low. If Arizona doesn’t finish in the red zone, Carolina can storm through the backdoor. I’ll have at least one player prop on the Cardinals coming up, but just know anything above 7 points is a little risky. The implied score here doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room for the Cards to cover if they don’t convert everything into touchdowns. 

Denver Broncos

Denver nearly covered in Week 1 at home against the Titans, despite Bo Nix playing an atrocious game. Two horrible picks and a terrible fumble caused by not cutting it loose down the field should have led to more Titans points. The Broncos defense bailed Nix out. I’m wildly overconfident in Sean Payton fixing things, but if that Bo Nix shows up in Week 2, the Colts will win this game. If last year’s Nix shows up and the Broncos defense performs to expectations, Denver could beat Indy by 20. There’s just a tingly concern we get another bad performance from the Broncos offense lingering. 

Player propsTrey Benson Over 34.5 rushing yards

The Panthers cannot stop the run. They’ve allowed 200+ rushing yards in seven straight games dating back to last year and they launched a longshot Travis Etienne Comeback Player of the Year Award campaign in Week 1. James Conner is going to eat and Trey Benson is going to eat too. The former FSU stud, drafted last year as a third-round pick, flashed explosive-play ability against the Saints last week and somehow draws an easier matchup in Week 2. He’s not the starter so I understand why the line isn’t higher, but in a game where Arizona is at home and favored by a touchdown, he could see enough carries to grind this out and/or rip a long one off to hit the number.

Matthew Stafford Under 32.5 pass attempts

You can pick up a full pass attempt here on BetMGM in a game where we have an insanely low total (41.5) and a Rams offense that doesn’t want to have Stafford dropping back a ton and facing pressure from a pretty dangerous Titans front four. Tennessee doesn’t pose as big a threat offensively as the Texans do and last week Stafford threw the ball just 29 times. I’m of the belief he threw more because the Rams needed to be aggressive with Houston holding a lead for almost all of the first half. I’d bet we get some early Stafford attempts to move the ball down the field, followed by the Rams getting a lead and then Sean McVay leaning into the run game with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum (a super deep play for anytime touchdown scorer). 

J.J. McCarthy Over 16.5 rushing yards

This game is on Sunday Night Football, which means it’s back-to-back primetime games to start his career for J.J. McCarthy and, oh, don’t mind the “having the kid” meat of the primetime sandwich. PGA bettors know about the “dad vibes” aspect of performance and we’re going to give McCarthy the same prop props here. He ran twice for 25 yards against the Bears and while I think in a perfect world Kevin O’Connell would prefer McCarthy not run a ton, I’m not sure it will matter: Baker Mayfield just picked up 39 yards (as the leading rusher!) against this Falcons defense on five carries. McCarthy might get some designed runs, but he’ll definitely scramble for more than 20 yards in this game.

Anytime touchdownsBrian Thomas Jr.

There’s a great number still sitting out here on DraftKings, nearly 15 cents better than the next closest option I see on the market. Thomas is a monster, obviously, and while he had a slow-ish start to the season, he still managed to score a touchdown with a designed rushing attempt in Liam Cohen’s offense. This total is substantially higher and he’ll be a huge factor in the Jacksonville passing attack. Buy now before it sinks. 

A.J. Brown

The Eagles might very well be without Dallas Goedert this weekend after he didn’t practice on Thursday. We’ll see. Either way, Brown was a hot topic coming out of a Philly win last week because he wasn’t involved in the offense. Brown isn’t complaining publicly, but the squeaky-wheel narrative can move silently and in this case I expect Brown to get some action early, especially after the Chiefs load the box to stop the Eagles’ lethal run game. 

David Montgomery 

This is a shorty for sure, but Montgomery is the hammer of this offense. In a game Dan Campbell really wants to win, the Lions will have ample short-yardage opportunities. It might be time to buy a cheap price on Montgomery finding the end zone. This number would have been preposterous a year ago — Montgomery was like -160 to score. But he’s still the guy getting the rock and closing out games — the short-yardage king for Detroit.Â