FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Sony/Crunchyroll’s Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle is a beast with the town gonzo over box office forecasts. On the conservative side, it’s looking like a $28 million Friday (including $11.4M previews) and a $45M three-day cume at 3,315 theaters, which is a definite record opening for anime movie.
However, there are others who believe Friday is around $35M (including previews), with a $60M-plus weekend in store.
The lower forecasts stem from the philosophy that the audience for this movie is niche-focused, limited to Demon Slayer devotees, and that no audience expansion is possible. While the last Demon Slayer opened to north of $21M and came out when theaters were reopening from the pandemic in the spring of 2021, Dragon Ball Super: Super Broly (which posted a similar opening), saw a -46% drop in its Saturday with $5.8M next to its $10.9M Friday. Marketing has been quite thrifty on this anime movie, on par with other Crunchyroll titles. That’s the other amaze-amaze about this movie.
Conjuring: Last Rites from New Line/Warner Bros, per estimates, is coming in at $29.7M at 3,802 locations, which is where we saw it. That would make it off 65% for a running 10-day total by Sunday of $134.6M, very close to topping the original movie’s cume, which is the franchise’s highest at $137.4M.
Third belongs to Focus Features’ Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, which as a shot at $20M but right now is at $19.5M in third at 3,694 sites. That is higher than the bow of 2022’s previous chapter New Era after a $9.2M Friday (including $2.6M previews).
Fourth is Lionsgate’s The Long Walk at 2,815, looking at $11M-$13.5M after a $5M Friday. The movie, which largely stars a fresh-faced cast, was made for net $20M.
Disney’s 30th anniversary rerelease of Pixar’s Toy Story is eyeing $1M today for a $3.4M weekend in estimates at 2,375 theaters.
FRIDAY AM, AFTER EXCLUSIVE: Previews for Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle came in at $11.4 million. That’s a record for an anime movie, beating 2022’s Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero which did $4.3M in previews before a $10.9M Friday and $21.1M opening. By the way, that figure for Infinity Castle is for both Tuesday fan and Thursday night shows.
RelishMix counts 200 million followers in the Infinity Castle social media universe across TikTok, YouTube, Instagram, Facebook and X. No surprise that chatter is positive given that RT audience score Thursday night, which continues to stand at 99%. “Hype centers on animation and Zenitsu/Akaza moments; with comments exclaiming ‘The animation is peak’ and ‘Zenitsu is LOCKED THE HELL IN’ and ‘Absolute mf cinema.’ Event behavior is strong with fans exclaiming how they’ve booked tickets at full capacity theaters, and calling the trailer ‘godlike’ as well as shoutouts to the LiSA and Aimer theme songs.”
Focus Features’ Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale counted $2.6M in all previews from Wednesday and Thursday at 2,900 venues. Wednesday paid sneak previews alone on large-format screens were $1M.
Lionsgate’s The Long Walk came in at $1.3M. Audience reaction on RT audience score is good at 86%.
Again, this weekend is expected to be the best mid-September frame at the box office for all movies post-Covid, exceeding $100M and besting the $93.7M from the same frame a year ago.
New Line’s The Conjuring: Last Rites posted $3.3M on Thursday, -23% for a first week of $104.9M.
EXCLUSIVE: Sony/Crunchyroll’s Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle, as we knew all along, is having a great night, with preview estimates at $10M at 2,800 sites, maybe a little more by sunrise. Showtimes, boosted by Imax and PLFs, began at 4 p.m.
That amount of cash is about equal to the pic’s first five days of advance ticket sales, which by the way, repped a record for an anime movie.
That Thursday night figure is almost as much as Five Nights at Freddy’s previews ($10.3M in 2023), it’s $500K less than Oppenheimer‘s ($10.5M, 2023) and higher than last fall’s Joker: Folie à Deux ($7M). Not that those are any hard comps; it’s just interesting to juxtapose the amount of cash this anime pic is racking up. Why are fans rushing to see this movie? Because it’s the first in a trilogy. The record opening for anime movie belongs to Warner Bros’ Pokémon: The First Movie, which debuted to $31M in 1999.
As we mentioned, Infinity Castle‘s weekend will be very frontloaded. Sony has forecast $35M for the opening of the Haruo Sotozaki-directed movie, while other sources believe the anime title’s opening lies between $45M-$60M over Friday-Sunday. Critics on Rotten Tomatoes are 96% fresh from 27 reviews, while the audience score stands at 99%.
Warner Bros/Everett Collection
As we told you in the preview, it’s going to be a deep bench of a weekend with New Line’s The Conjuring: Last Rites banking potentially another $29M in its second frame, and newcomers Focus Features’ Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale and Lionsgate’s The Long Walk doing $15M-$20M and $10M, respectively. Last Rites crossed $100M on Wednesday and is bound to be the highest-grossing Conjuring movie ever at the domestic B.O., surpassing the 2013 original’s $137.4M total.
Also opening is Bleecker Street’s Spinal Tap II: The End Continues with an expected $3M-$5M; critics currently 74% fresh on the Rob Reiner-directed sequel again starring Christopher Guest, Michael McKean and Harry Shearer.
Lionsgate via YouTube
Long Walk, based on the Stephen King tome about a group of teenage boys who compete in an annual contest where they must maintain a certain walking speed or get shot, is bound for a $1.2M-$1.5M Thursday. The Francis Lawrence-directed movie at 94% fresh with critics.
Downton Abbey 3, we’re hearing, is north of $1M for the night, which is about what the previous installment, 2022’s Downton Abbey: The New Era did, which turned into a $7.3M Friday and $16M opening. The original movie during pre-Covid September 2019 minted a $2.1M Thursday night on its way to a $13.8M Friday and $31M opening. The threequel currently has the best reviews in the trilogy with 88% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, and a near-best audience score of 96%, just behind New Era’s 97%.