Rush before corridor closure
The first tariff hike, a 25% duty imposed on August 7, had already unsettled exporters. But it was Washington’s decision to double that penalty to 50% from August 27—citing India’s continued purchase of Russian oil—that triggered panic among shippers.
Freight forwarders report that exporters scrambled to push consignments out of India before the deadline. Volumes to the US jumped by more than a third compared with the same week last year. Once the duty hit, orders slowed to a trickle.
Spot freight rates tell the same story. Prices for shipping Indian goods to the US dropped below $4 per kilo in early September, the lowest in months and 22% lower than last year, reflecting the sudden drop in demand.
Europe gains, US pulls away
While the US corridor shrank, Indian exports to Europe kept rising. By early September, tonnages were up 8% year-on-year, showing that exporters were already looking westward for relief.
Sri Lanka also saw gains: its air cargo to the US climbed 13% in early September compared with last year. Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific exporters such as Vietnam, Taiwan, and Thailand increased their shipments to America by around 40% year-on-year over the past ten weeks, filling the gap left by China, Hong Kong, and now India.
The broader trend is clear: when tariffs or policy changes make one source too costly, buyers pivot fast to alternatives.
Billions at stake for India
For India, the stakes are high. Around $48.2 billion worth of exports to the US are now subject to the 50% tariff, covering industries from textiles and jewellery to chemicals and footwear.
The government’s Chief Economic Adviser has warned the duties could shave 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points off GDP growth this year. That is no small setback for an economy that has positioned itself as a major alternative to China in global supply chains.
Small and medium-sized exporters, many in labour-intensive sectors, are expected to be hardest hit. Cancellations, reduced margins, and idle capacity could ripple through industrial clusters across states such as Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, and Maharashtra.
Global trade chessboard
India’s loss may become Asia’s gain. Vietnam and Bangladesh, already beneficiaries of US firms diversifying from China, stand to attract even more orders. Freight capacity is already shifting away from China-US routes toward Europe and other Asian markets, according to WorldACD data.
At the same time, the US has ended duty-free “de minimis” exemptions for commercial shipments from all countries. That raises costs for smaller exporters worldwide and adds another layer of uncertainty to trade flows.
Justin is a personal finance author and seasoned business journalist with over a decade of experience. He makes it his mission to break down complex financial topics and make them clear, relatable, and relevant—helping everyday readers navigate today’s economy with confidence.
Before returning to his Middle Eastern roots, where he was born and raised, Justin worked as a Business Correspondent at Reuters, reporting on equities and economic trends across both the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions.