For months, smart people have downplayed concerns about the Los Angeles Dodgers by saying something like, “All that matters is October.”
And that’s true, to an extent. If the Dodgers defend their World Series crown, history will remember them as a Death Star and the sport’s first back-to-back champ in a quarter century. But if they don’t? It might have something to do with all those months prior to October.
Two weeks remain in Major League Baseball’s regular season, and while there is mounting intrigue about the last playoff spot in each league, most contenders are concerned with which teams will secure byes. For now, the Dodgers are wild-card bound. To get a bye, they’ll need to catch the Philadelphia Phillies, whom they host this week. So, you see, how the Dodgers end September could greatly improve their October odds.
It’s time to look at each contender’s remaining games. We picked a key series for each club with at least 5 percent playoff odds and listed their FanGraphs’ playoff odds and strength of schedule figures. Let’s dive in.
Teams are listed in order of playoff odds. Winning percentages are updated through Saturday.
AMERICAN LEAGUE Toronto Blue Jays
Record: 87-62
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .500
Remaining schedule
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 15-18
4
Road
.493
Sept. 19-21
3
Road
.497
Sept. 23-25
3
Home
.544
Sept. 26-28
3
Home
.493
Key series: Sept. 23-25 vs. Red Sox
The AL East is technically a three-team race, but the Blue Jays are the obvious favorites. They’ve been in first place since July 2 and carry a decent lead into these final two weeks. Clearly, the Rays — 5-1 against the Jays this season — have a chance to play spoiler, but Boston is the only team left on Toronto’s schedule with even a vague hope of catching them in the division. The Red Sox are just 3-7 against the Blue Jays this season, and if the Jays can maintain that dominance, they could clinch a first-round bye in the playoffs.
Detroit Tigers
Record: 85-65
Playoff odds: 99.6 percent
Strength of schedule: .498
Remaining schedule
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 16-18
3
Home
.520
Sept. 19-21
3
Home
.439
Sept. 23-25
3
Road
.520
Sept. 26-28
3
Road
.544
Key series: Sept. 16-18 vs. Guardians; 23-25 at Guardians
Despite recent wobbles and Tarik Skubal injury worries, the Tigers still are in solid shape in the standings, 6 1/2 games ahead of Cleveland, and are playing for a bye and for home-field advantage in the ALCS. The only upcoming opponent that could realistically threaten that is Boston. But as the magic number dwindles, it’s the two series against the Guardians that carry added importance for the Tigers and their fan base. Cleveland has dominated the AL Central for the past decade, so the Tigers wouldn’t mind clinching their first division title since 2014 and popping champagne in the clubhouse after a game against the Guardians.
New York Yankees
Record: 83-66
Playoff odds: 99.4 percent
Strength of schedule: .468
Remaining schedule
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 15-17
3
Road
.439
Sept. 18-21
4
Road
.466
Sept. 23-25
3
Home
.383
Sept. 26-28
3
Home
.466
Key series: Sept. 18-21 at Orioles; 26-28 vs. Orioles
The Yankees are coming off a tough two-week stretch in which they played the Astros, Blue Jays, Tigers and Red Sox. They went 7-5 during that stretch. These next two weeks are, on paper, much easier, as they play nothing but losing teams the rest of the way. But the Orioles have played much better lately — though they’re coming off a weekend sweep at the hands of the first-place Jays — and they’re so far 3-3 against the Yankees this season. With seven head-to-head matchups left, the Yankees are going to need to play better than .500 ball against the O’s if they want to challenge for the division title.
Seattle Mariners
Record: 82-68
Playoff odds: 96.4 percent
Strength of schedule: .502
Remaining schedule
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 16-18
3
Road
.497
Sept. 19-21
3
Road
.544
Sept. 23-25
3
Home
.275
Sept. 26-28
3
Home
.561
Key series: Sept. 19-21 at Astros
Seattle hadn’t held sole possession of first place since the start of June before overtaking the Astros this past weekend. The Mariners are on fire, winners of nine games in a row. The AL West is a legitimate race, with the Mariners one game clear of Houston and three games ahead of the Rangers. For the Mariners, home-field advantage is huge — they have a losing record on the road — and so overtaking the Astros for a division title could pay immediate dividends in the wild-card round. If the current standings hold, we’ll see these two teams square off in Seattle to start October.
Boston Red Sox
Record: 82-68
Playoff odds: 90.4 percent
Strength of schedule: .509
Remaining schedule
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 16-18
3
Home
.463
Sept. 19-21
3
Road
.493
Sept. 23-25
3
Road
.581
Sept. 26-28
3
Home
.564
Key series: Sept. 23-25 at Blue Jays
The Red Sox are extreme long shots for the division, but they’re technically not out of the hunt, and those three games against the Blue Jays present an opportunity to make up a lot of ground in a hurry — or to fall hopelessly behind. At this point, the Red Sox will likely make the playoffs, and the bigger questions are whether they can take home-field advantage in the wild-card round (they currently project to play the Yankees on the road) or maybe win the division and get a bye. The answer to both questions could hinge on those three games in Toronto.
Houston Astros
Record: 81-69
Playoff odds: 72.6 percent
Strength of schedule: .491
Remaining schedule
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 15-17
3
Home
.530
Sept. 19-21
3
Home
.544
Sept. 23-25
3
Road
.463
Sept. 26-28
3
Road
.463
Key series: Sept. 15-21 vs. Rangers and Mariners
It’s a key homestand, not a key series. The Astros have stumbled lately, losing their AL West lead altogether, and for the next week, they play at home against the two teams challenging them in the division. The Rangers are the late-season contenders and statistical long shots, but they’re also the team with the best run differential of the bunch (by quite a bit), and they have a winning record against the Astros this season (6-4). The Mariners have been in the hunt all year and have a .500 head-to-head record against the Astros. It’s high noon in Texas with the AL West on the line.
Texas Rangers
Record: 79-71
Playoff odds: 30 percent
Strength of schedule: .480
Remaining schedule
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 15-17
3
Road
.544
Sept. 19-21
3
Home
.470
Sept. 23-25
3
Home
.439
Sept. 26-28
3
Road
.520
Key series: Sept. 15-17 at Astros
For the shorthanded Rangers to complete this late-season surge and make the playoffs, they’re going to need a lot of things to go right in the last four series. But a one in three chance ain’t bad. It all starts with a head-to-head matchup with one of the teams the Rangers are trying to pass for a playoff berth. The Astros enter the series two games up on Texas. To secure a spot, the Rangers are going to have to jump ahead of someone — they’re currently the first team out in the AL — and they might as well start closing those gaps by beating their in-state rivals.
Cleveland Guardians
Record: 78-71
Playoff odds: 11.3 percent
Strength of schedule: .504
Remaining schedule
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 16-18
3
Road
.581
Sept. 19-21
4
Road
.439
Sept. 23-25
3
Home
.581
Sept. 26-28
3
Home
.530
Key series: Sept. 26-28 vs. Rangers
Every series matters for the Guardians at this point. They’ve played their way into the conversation, but just barely, and now they need to stay hot to keep their hopes alive. Two remaining series against the Tigers are big, but if the Guardians are going to stay in this thing, their fate will come down to the very end. If one of the wild-card teams slips and leaves the door open, the last AL playoff spot could be decided in that end-of-season series between the Guardians and Rangers.
NATIONAL LEAGUEMilwaukee Brewers
Record: 91-59
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .483
Remaining schedule
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 16-18
3
Home
.463
Sept. 19-21
3
Road
.483
Sept. 22-24
3
Road
.544
Sept. 26-28
3
Home
.500
Key series: Sept. 22-24 at Padres
The best team in baseball has one of the easiest end-of-season schedules. The Padres are the only projected playoff team remaining on the Brewers’ road to locking down a wild-card bye and the NL’s best record. Only once that is sewn up will Milwaukee be in playoff prep mode. San Diego is a team that still has much to play for, and has won their previous meeting against the Brewers this season, a tightly contested series back in June. They also went 5-2 against Milwaukee last year.
Philadelphia Phillies
Record: 89-61
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .501
Remaining schedule
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 15-17
3
Road
.561
Sept. 19-21
3
Road
.497
Sept. 23-25
3
Home
.470
Sept. 26-28
3
Home
.439
Key series: Sept. 15-17 at Dodgers
Despite a rash of recent injuries, Philadelphia maintains the inside track for the second wild-card bye in the NL and still has a shot to overtake the Brewers as the top seed. Taking another series from the Dodgers — like the Phillies did at home in April — would be a big step. Even if the Dodgers series goes sideways, the Phillies have a chance to regain ground with a relatively soft late schedule. The Phillies are a combined 9-4 against the Diamondbacks and Marlins this season. They have not yet faced the Twins, but will soon come to understand it’s a very different Twins team these days.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Record: 84-65
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .523
Remaining schedule
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 15-17
3
Home
.597
Sept. 18-21
4
Home
.507
Sept. 23-25
3
Road
.497
Sept. 26-28
3
Road
.544
Key series: Sept. 15-17 vs. Phillies
When we released our first edition of this breakdown last month, the Dodgers had the second-easiest remaining schedule of any contender. They followed that by sweeping two good teams (Padres and Reds), splitting against the Rockies and losing series to the Angels, Padres, Diamondbacks, Pirates and Orioles. Not great. But the Dodgers got back on track last week, going 5-1 against the Rockies and Giants, and not a moment too soon. The remaining schedule doesn’t look so easy anymore. First, there’s a playoff-preview showdown with the Phillies, with a bye potentially on the line and some elite starters on tap. Then come two opponents whose playoff hopes are still technically alive before ending the season against the postseason-bound Mariners.
Chicago Cubs
Record: 85-64
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .504
Remaining schedule
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 15-17
3
Road
.436
Sept. 18-21
4
Road
.500
Sept. 23-25
3
Home
.510
Sept. 26-28
3
Home
.483
Key series: Sept. 26-28 vs. Cardinals
Truth is, the Cubs are virtually guaranteed a playoff spot (100 percent) and have virtually no shot of a bye (1.4 percent), so the focus of the last stretch of the season should be staying ahead of the Padres and getting healthy. That stretch starts with facing Paul Skenes and the Pirates in Pittsburgh — a tough assignment, even if he’s on a pitch count — and ends at home against St. Louis on the last weekend of the regular season. The Cubs and rival Cardinals have split their 10 games so far this season. There may not be any playoff implications at stake for their season-ending series, but by then, perhaps the Cubs will have addressed a few of the question marks looming over the current roster.
San Diego Padres
Record: 82-68
Playoff odds: 99.8 percent
Strength of schedule: .499
Remaining schedule
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 16-18
3
Road
.510
Sept. 19-21
3
Road
.383
Sept. 22-24
3
Home
.611
Sept. 26-28
3
Home
.497
Key series: Sept. 16-18 at Mets
The Padres closed in on the Dodgers over the past month when both teams had comparatively soft schedules, but neither has an easy final two weeks of the regular season. The Friars must handle business on the road against the lowly White Sox, though we’re not bold enough to label that the key series. Instead, we’ve circled the upcoming road series against the floundering Mets. Not only could the Padres deliver a big blow to the Mets’ playoff odds, but they can also add cushion in the wild-card race. In the unlikely event the Padres lost out to the Mets in these final weeks and slipped to the third wild-card slot, they probably would wind up at Dodger Stadium for the three-game wild-card round. The Padres won their last series against the Dodgers, but are 4-9 against them this season.
New York Mets
Record: 77-73
Playoff odds: 80.1 percent
Strength of schedule: .477
Remaining schedule
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 16-18
3
Home
.544
Sept. 19-21
3
Home
.412
Sept. 23-25
3
Road
.568
Sept. 26-28
3
Road
.470
Key series: Sept. 16-18 vs. Padres
Over the last week, this Padres series transformed from a prime chance for the Mets to improve their playoff positioning to a great worry. The Mets are in free fall, losing eight in a row before winning Sunday, and have given new life to the Giants, Reds and Diamondbacks’ playoff aspirations. The Cubs hold the NL’s top wild-card slot. The Padres own the second one. In the next two weeks, the Mets face both teams. The Nationals and Marlins aren’t pushovers, either. Stay cold, and the Mets could be out of the dance altogether.
San Francisco Giants
Record: 75-74
Playoff odds: 9.7 percent
Strength of schedule: .501
Remaining schedule
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 15-17
3
Road
.497
Sept. 18-21
4
Road
.561
Sept. 22-24
3
Home
.483
Sept. 26-28
3
Home
.275
Key series: Sept. 18-21 at Dodgers
One must still describe the Giants’ playoff hopes as “remote,” even though those odds were below 1 percent as recently as Aug. 30. After losing two of three to the Dodgers this past weekend, the Giants will head to Los Angeles to complete the home-and-home with a four-game series that could seal their fate — or add fuel to their postseason push. The Giants are 3-6 against the Dodgers so far this season. Win that series, and an eminently winnable season-ending homestand awaits. The Giants end the season against the Rockies, whom they swept earlier this month.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Record: 75-75
Playoff odds: 5.1 percent
Strength of schedule: .547
Remaining schedule
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 15-17
3
Home
.507
Sept. 19-21
3
Home
.597
Sept. 23-25
3
Home
.561
Sept. 26-28
3
Road
.544
Key series: Sept. 15-17 vs. Giants
Even Diamondbacks fans might not expect to find their team included in this list, but the Snakes reached .500 and eclipsed our 5 percent playoff odds cutoff on Sunday. A theoretical D-Backs playoff run would require speed-running through the hardest remaining schedule of all 30 MLB teams. But because writing that their key series is “all of them” would rightly annoy readers, let’s go with the first one. There’s no way the Diamondbacks reach the playoffs without passing the Giants in the standings. They’ll have the starting pitching edge in that series, with Zac Gallen leading off on Monday. They lost Corbin Burnes. They sold. They’re here anyway. Do you believe in miracles?
Cincinnati Reds
Record: 74-75
Playoff odds: 4.8 percent
Strength of schedule: .508
Remaining schedule
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 15-17
3
Road
.483
Sept. 18-21
4
Home
.568
Sept. 23-25
3
Home
.436
Sept. 26-28
3
Road
.611
Key series: Sept. 18-21 vs. Cubs
Sure, we’ll round up the Reds’ playoff odds and let ’em in, even after a bad weekend. A week ago, even after taking a series from the Mets, the Reds’ playoff odds were 2.6 percent. They rejoined the mix as the Mets nosedived, and now sit 2 1/2 games out of the final wild-card spot. The Reds’ remaining schedule includes two make-or-break series against the teams atop the NL Central. The first is a four-gamer in Cincinnati against the Cubs, who are hobbled. That’s a series the Reds can’t afford to lose. Cincinnati ends the season in Milwaukee, and if the Reds are still in the playoff hunt, perhaps they’ll benefit from the Brewers easing off their regulars for extra rest ahead of their wild-card bye.
(Photo of Otto Kemp and Bryce Harper: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)