Jai Newcombe has been the highest-rated player on the ground in each of the four finals he’s played. So the Cats simply must tag him, right? And does the AFL have an equalisation problem?

Let’s get to this week’s overreactions, where we judge a few major takeaways as legitimate or irrational.

Having the same teams compete in prelims year after year is a worry

Collingwood, Geelong, Brisbane, and Hawthorn. Seems familiar right? How familiar? Well, after this week, there’ll have been 50 preliminary finals played in the AFL this century. At least one of the four aforementioned teams will have played in 44 of them. For a league which spruiks the ‘equalisation’ of the competition, is it a concern that it’s the same teams fronting up at the pointy end year after year?

Verdict: Not an overreaction

Those same four teams have won 14 of the 25 premierships played since 2000, and it’s set to become 15 of 26. In an ideal ‘even’ competition, teams should be winning one every 18 years, right? Well, it’s never going to happen, but the AFL probably should be concerned that it’s the same teams at the top, time after time after time.

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But how do you fix it? Well, without launching into a 10,000 word thesis, there are easy tweaks the league can make to ensure the playing field is a little more even. Firstly, allowing any club, but especially clubs which have been successful, to nab the best junior talent in the competition without having to procure and give up a top draft pick, is ludicrous.

The fact the Lions, who made a preliminary final in 2022, could match a bid at pick 2 for father-son Will Ashcroft with picks 34, 35, 38, 40, and 41, and get back 41, 82, 84, and 86 is a disgrace. Clubs should of course be able to match bids for academy, and father-sons, but give up the right pieces. If that means trading hard for a top 5 pick, then plan for it.

In 2024, the Lions won a premiership, Ashcroft was a Norm Smith Medal winner, and the Lions then picked up his brother, the highly-rated Levi at pick 5 of that year’s draft, with picks 40, 42, 43 and 46. This year, the Lions are in line to again nab a top 5 talent for relative peanuts. It just doesn’t pass any pub test.

With the same old teams again in the prelims, does the AFL have an equalisation problem? ESPN/Getty Images

The Pies, too, had similar fortune with Nick Daicos, picking him up for picks 38, 40, 42, 44 instead of at pick 4 — a pick they traded out the year prior in order to ‘bank’ enough draft capital to match bids on Daicos the next year.

The Swans, not included in this foursome but who have equally benefitted from its academy and made nine prelims this century, have also been fortunate. And make no mistake, the same thing will happen to the Suns, as their draft spending spree on academy products continues. Names like Jed Walter, Ethan Read, Jake Rogers (all taken in the top 15 in 2023), and Leo Lombard (pick 9 in 2024) were all academy products with matched bids. This year, two more academy products — Zeke Uwland and Dylan Patterson — are top 10 prospects.

The Hawks, in fairness, had a few down years, and reloaded through the draft. Calsher Dear, a father-son in 2023, was overlooked by every team at least twice, eventually being taken at pick 56 with no matched bid. And the Cats are masters of managing the books, luring players ‘coming home’ to the surf coast, or offering an attractive lifestyle to go with playing footy at one of the league’s most successful clubs in modern times.

This is of course fingernail deep, and make no mistake: the clubs that constantly make the final four are expertly run and well-coached organisations. But you can’t help but get a sense of boredom at watching the Pies, Lions, Cats, and even Hawks compete for another premiership.

Getting them (and other clubs) to pay ‘fair value’ for academy and father-son prospects is a small, but logical step. Have multiple academy prospects in the top 10? Get two top 10 picks. If that means dealing a good player, or a future high pick to a lower-ranked club, then great.

This needs addressing, but as always it’s complicated, and there’s really no easy fix.

— Matt Walsh

The Cats simply must tag Jai Newcombe this week

We’re down to the final four teams and the stakes couldn’t be higher, the battle between old rivals Geelong and Hawthorn looming as yet another classic. Geelong — to many the best team in it — deserves favouritism, but to slow the Hawks they need to shutdown the heartbeat of their midfield, which means finding a way to put the clamps on in-form star Jai Newcombe.

Verdict: Not an overreaction

Like we found out in Geelong’s qualifying final win over Brisbane, winning games, and finals, can sometimes be as much about taking away an opponent’s strength as it is executing your own game plan. The biggest strength for Hawthorn? Newcombe. Well, ‘biggest’ might be subjective, but he’s a serious weapon nonetheless.

In his four career finals, he’s been the highest-rated player on the ground. Every single time. Last week’s semifinal win over the Crows was just another example, his contest work, clearances, and drive out of stoppage was a clear point of difference. The depth around him might be thin, particularly with no Will Day, but that’s why shutting him down is almost the surest path to halt Sam Mitchell’s entire engine room.

And so, enter Oisin Mullin, who did the tagging job on Brisbane All-Australian Hugh McCluggage and held him to just four kicks and minimal influence in the qualifying final, his usual class and spread non-existent.

Every player is different, and no two matchups are ever the same, but there’s no reason not to roll out the shut down role again on Newcombe. Mark O’Connor is another who offers Chris Scott that flexibility, both players disciplined enough, fit enough, and strong enough to pull it off in a cut-throat final.

But regardless of who Scott deploys in that crucial role, blanketing Newcombe at every opportunity is a must. Nope, it’s not a guaranteed victory, Hawthorn possessing many threats around the field, but it’ll still go a long way.

Geelong, if you want to book another grand final berth, putting Mullin on Newcombe is almost a non-negotiable move.

— Jarryd Barca