With a Bledisloe Cup series and a Grand Slam tour to come, no one can be sure after last week’s record defeat to the Springboks, in which the All Blacks showed a promising attacking blueprint in the first half before imploding in the second, if they will finish the year in chaos or back on top of the world rankings.
This volatility and uncertainty shrouding the All Blacks is of itself an unsustainable proposition, given the weight of investment in the national team and its importance in driving New Zealand Rugby’s (NZR) commercial agenda.
The brand proposition is built on the near certainty that the All Blacks maybe don’t always win, but that they do always deliver performances that meet a minimum standard.
Ardie Savea and his All Blacks teammates reflect on defeat to South Africa, in Wellington. Photo / SmartFrame
Their sustained excellence over decades has effectively given them the rugby equivalent of an AAA credit rating, and there is close to $200 million of revenue secured on the strength of trust broadcasters, sponsors and fans hold in the All Blacks.
That trust can’t be eroded – and if there is a continuation of inconsistent All Blacks performances and underwhelming results, then the priority for the new chief will be instigating a high-performance review to gain better oversight of what’s going on within the inner sanctum.
There are probably grounds, regardless of what happens in the next six tests, to say a case has already been established for there to be some kind of deeper probe into how head coach Scott Robertson has set up his coaching and management teams, how well he’s connecting with his senior players, and how strong and effective his relationships are with the Super Rugby Pacific clubs.
The new CEO would be entirely justified in asking for answers to these questions, based on the current statistics of the Robertson era.
His All Blacks have played 21 tests, won 15 and lost six. By way of comparison, his predecessor, Ian Foster, won 15 of his first 21 tests, drew one and lost five.
It was when the All Blacks then lost two of their next three – tests 23 and 24 (against Ireland) – that Foster came under pressure from NZR to make changes to his coaching set-up, which he did by sacking assistants Brad Mooar and John Plumtree – and when they lost the next game, to South Africa in Mbombela, he came perilously close to being fired himself.
There is precedent, then, to say that eight losses in 25 tests is the trigger point to launch a full-blooded investigation into the high-performance set-up.
Robertson has already racked up six losses, one of which was a record defeat – and even if the All Blacks do beat Australia twice, Ireland and then Scotland to give the head coach a 75% win ratio after 25 tests as compared with Foster’s 64% at the same juncture, it wouldn’t necessarily rank as a demonstrably better effort.
The now former All Blacks head coach Ian Foster (left) and the now outgoing New Zealand Rugby CEO Mark Robinson, pictured in 2022. Photo / Photosport
Quantitatively better, yes; qualitatively, maybe not as Foster’s All Blacks did at least win the Rugby Championship in 2021 and 2022 (and the truncated Tri-Nations of 2020) and retained the Freedom Cup, which included a victory in South Africa.
Robertson’s All Blacks are yet to win a test in the Republic, haven’t won the Rugby Championship – and currently sit third on the table – and haven’t been able to secure the Freedom Cup.
But what also has to be factored in and considered by the inbound new CEO is the comparative levels of investment.
In 2022, the only “normal” (non-Covid-impacted, non-World Cup) year of Foster’s tenure, NZR spent a total of $78 million on teams in black, according to the annual report.
In 2024, that figure jumped to $84m, and while some of that additional spend will have been shared by the All Blacks XV, Black Ferns and male and female sevens teams, the All Blacks will have likely been the biggest beneficiary.
This is deliberate on the part of NZR, which has made a conscious decision to up its investment in the All Blacks to reflect the team’s importance to the commercial strategy.
The evidence that the money has been licensed to flow can be seen in Robertson’s expanded management team.
He’s been sanctioned to operate with a six-man frontline coaching team – himself, Scott Hansen, Jason Holland, Jason Ryan, Tamati Ellison and Bryn Evans – which is the same-sized group Foster had, but the overall headcount in the current All Blacks wider management team is 23, which is up from 19 in the previous regime.
Robertson has also, seemingly, been able to secure a greater discretionary budget, as last year he was able to boost his coaching ranks with access to specialist consultants David Hill and Corey Flynn, while he was granted permission to take an additional seven players to Japan last year, at an additional cost of around $500,000, despite the fact none of them were ever going to play.
NZR has to ask if its additional investment is being well spent, and part of the process needs to focus on the specific roles and responsibilities of the frontline coaching staff.
As the Herald understands it, Robertson doesn’t do any hands-on coaching. He is the self-styled head of culture – a role that appears to be about setting the tone for each test and ensuring players are connected to the wider themes at play.
Hansen is understood to operate in the capacity most analysts would equate with the head coach – he decides the attack and defence patterns for each test and then respectively empowers Ellison (defence) and Holland (attack) to practically implement his vision on the training ground.
Ryan coaches the forwards in every aspect bar the lineout, which is the domain of Evans.
No one is suggesting the set-up is flawed per se, but it is certainly significantly different to any of the previous regimes, particularly the role Robertson has assigned himself.
Different can be packaged as innovative if the All Blacks start winning more, but on the current win ratio, different feels synonymous with problematic.
Gregor Paul is one of New Zealand’s most respected rugby writers and columnists. He has won multiple awards for journalism and written several books about sport.