Daniel Jones is a better quarterback than Josh Allen.
This is a take that would get you laughed off sports radio and dismissed at in a sports bar of your choosing (even the ones in Indiana). But for two glorious weeks and in one advanced statistics composite, it’s true. Since statistics can’t account for the gravity of a 251-yard fourth quarter or a 15-point comeback over the Baltimore Ravens in the final four minutes of a primetime game, Jones’ superior accuracy and similar expected points added gives him a slight edge after dueling 2-0 starts.
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Jones will have to enjoy being technically better than the reigning MVP, even if only the most delusional of fans would want him on their roster over Allen. That’s not the only quirk in our Week 3 quarterback rankings, but it is the wildest. This week’s top four is filled with players you don’t yet fully trust in the playoffs, ranging from Super Bowl losers (Brock Purdy, Jared Goff) to guys who’ve run out of gas before they could even get there (Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love). The bottom? Well, that’s been reserved for young, struggling QBs.
We know the data is limited — but it does give us a pretty good idea of who has risen to the occasion this fall. Let’s see which quarterbacks are great and who truly stinks through two games. These numbers are from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model but compiled by the extremely useful RBSDM.com, run by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl.
Using expected points added (EPA, the value a quarterback adds on any given play compared to the average NFL result) along with completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the percent of his passes that are caught that aren’t expected to be in typical NFL situations) gives us a graph of 34 quarterbacks (minimum 32 plays) that looks like this:
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QB EPA/CPOE Composite, Week 2. Data via rbsdm.com
Break that into tiers using RBSDM.com’s outstanding and helpful plotting software, and it looks like this:
Let’s run down these rankings by tier, all according to the advanced data (which is wildly undervaluing just how vital Josh Allen is to the Buffalo Bills).
Tier I: Elite (but not quite Super Bowl trustworthy)
1. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 0.278 EPA+CPOE composite
2. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.241
3. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.237
4. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.236
Love was given the gift to getting to do less this season, whether that’s by drafting Matthew Golden in the first round or bringing Micah Parsons in to cosplay as a tornado. Goff overcame a rough start (against Parsons and the Packers) to sling five touchdowns against the Chicago Bears, who have settled into their own disaster despite preseason optimism. Purdy’s perch here will soon be erased due to injury, but Mac Jones filled in capably in Week 2… albeit against the New Orleans Saints 23rd-ranked defense.
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Tier II: There, by the grace of Daniel Jones, go the undefeated Colts
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) rushes with the ball Sunday, Sept. 14, 2025, during a game against the Denver Broncos at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
5. Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts: 0.194 EPA+CPOE composite
6. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.192
7. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.170
8. Drake Maye, New England Patriots: 0.169
9. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.160
10. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 0.149
We’ve addressed the Jones-Allen thing. I don’t agree with the numbers, as I am a sane person. Still, what a moment to reflect on Jones’ rebirth. It almost certainly won’t last, but in two weeks he’s destroyed the Miami Dolphins‘ spirits and upended 2024’s top defense. Remarkable!
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This tier is more notable for the young(ish) guys who’ve joined it. Herbert’s efficiency rose in his first season under Jim Harbaugh and has spiked through two wins this season — he’s got five touchdowns, zero interceptions (but one fumble) and is averaging more than 311 total yards per game. Maye keeps putting balls where his tightly covered wideouts can get them (looking at you, Kayshon Boutte). He’s been more efficient and less turnover prone in his sophomore season, even before Stefon Diggs or TreVeyon Henderson have worked their way into major roles in the passing game.
Tier III: I’m sorry, who?
11. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.115 EPA+CPOE composite
12. Russell Wilson, New York Giants: 0.108
13. Jake Browning, Cincinnati Bengals: 0.103
14. Mac Jones, San Francisco 49ers: 0.102
15. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: 0.099
16. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.098
17. Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks: 0.097
Wilson can still throw deep balls that scrape the clouds, which won’t work against everyone but sure as hell did against the Cowboys (seven of 11, 270 yards on throws traveling 20-plus yards in Week 2). Browning dialed up his downfield passing to rally for a comeback win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, but his 2023 experience suggests he’ll return to a quick-hit, short-range passing game that allows his dynamic playmakers to shoulder plenty of the offensive load.
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Jones had his first three-touchdown, zero-interception performance since his Pro Bowl rookie debut (heh), which suggests either Kyle Shanahan is a wizard or the New Orleans Saints need to spend this week reflecting. Mayfield has now rallied the Bucs to a pair of gutsy comeback wins and absolutely belongs a tier higher.
Tier IV: Lots of room for improvement
18. Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons: 0.075 EPA+CPOE composite
19. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.070
20. Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.064
21. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: 0.061
22. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.053
23. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 0.051
Penix wasn’t asked to throw much in a game where his defense stifled the Minnesota Vikings and his offense ran for 218 yards. He’s dialed back the big downfield throws of his brief rookie campaign, but can still fit balls into tight windows on the sideline, which makes me bullish on his future.
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Nix’s deep ball rate has dipped from 11.1 percent to 7.1 percent despite the emergence of Troy Franklin, who was used mostly as a short-range target in his Week 2 breakthrough. We’ll see if Sean Payton is biding his time to unleash his QB’s surprisingly stout downfield passing game or if Nix is returning to the short-short-short-short-short-short-short-LONG gameplan of his final season at Oregon.
Rodgers’ EPA in Week 1 vs. the New York Jets? 7.1 Rodgers’ EPA in Week 2 vs. the Seattle Seahawks? -9.6. It could be a rough one for the Steelers this fall.
Tier V: Probably fine, but it’s not a great start (especially for Joe Burrow)
Sep 15, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) comes under pressure from Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Lavonte David (54) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Haason Reddick (5) during the third quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
24. Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints: 0.040 EPA+CPOE composite
25. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: 0.030
26. Justin Fields, New York Jets: 0.027
27. Joe Flacco, Cleveland Browns: 0.023
28. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.017
29. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: 0.013
30. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders: 0.013
31. Geno Smith, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.007
There are some surprising names here thanks to the small sample size of two games. Let’s talk about the big ones.
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Burrow is out until at least Christmastime thanks to a serious turf toe injury. Fields was locked in football hell for one half before exiting with a head injury; his -41 CPOE against the Bills was the worst number Next Gen Stats has recorded since its inception. Stroud was freed from former coordinator Bobby Slowik’s inability to adjust but is averaging fewer than 200 passing yards per game and has thrown a single touchdown pass in Houston’s 0-2 start. Overhauling his offensive line was supposed to help, but it turns out trading away Laremy Tunsil and slotting in various underwhelming veterans has caused his pressure rate to reach a career high (39.1 percent).
Young improved over last week’s dismal performance by targeting the hell out of Hunter Renfrow, who didn’t play for anyone last season. Huh! Daniels got bullied by the Packers last week and that pressure helped mute his big downfield throws (also, Terry McLaurin’s holdout rust has manifested in a 53.8 percent catch rate and only 2.1 yards of separation per target, both career lows). Smith completed three passes that went more than eight yards downfield on Monday night. All three were caught by Chargers.
Tier VI: Oh no, youths!
32. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears: -0.004
33. JJ McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings: -0.013
34. Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans: -0.020
Ben Johnson has yet to transform the Bears’ offense into something interesting. Can Luther Burden help? Looks like we’ll see! McCarthy’s one glorious half against the Bears in Week 1 seems to say more about Chicago’s capacity to collapse than his own talent thus far. Ward is trying his best for an overmatched team. Tennessee just has to hope it doesn’t break him before he can be great.
This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL QB ranks Week 3: Daniel Jones, better than Josh Allen in 1 specific way