I almost combined the Khris Middleton and CJ McCollum statistical doppelgangers because…well…they’re pretty similar themselves. Not in terms of production, but rather in terms of career stage and status with the Wizards.
Like McCollum, Middleton was a bit better than average last season…when he could stay on the floor. Like McCollum, odds are he’ll be around average again next season, though he’s at an age where a sudden and steep decline is normal. One difference: Middleton’s history of serious injuries increases his risk of a production drop-off.
Like McCollum, he’ll be gone when the season ends (or sooner), unless he’s willing to be a veteran mentor at around the league minimum. And, like McCollum, that wouldn’t be a bad thing — he’s well respected and probably has much to teach Washington’s youngsters.
So, where does that leave the Wizards? With an aging wing who used to be pretty good, but who’s now playing out the age/injury-related decline portion of his career. Which is perfectly normal for a rebuilding team.
And, the Wizards got paid a first round pick and wriggled out of multiple years of Kyle Kuzma to get him, which a) was a good bit of business by Will Dawkins, and b) is pretty normal for a rebuilding team.
My version of the Statistical Doppelganger Machine uses 14 categories including box score stats and age. I don’t use height or position, though players tend to get comps from the same position group.
Middleton’s comps are interesting. They’re all good — or at least had a few good years — and they’re all 30+ years old. While they had their time as starters, at this stage of their careers, they were coming off the bench. Which is to say: Middleton probably has genuine value as a reserve on a good team. Here’s the group:
Next up: An analytics-driven 2024 Redraft.