By Sean McIndoe, Dom Luszczyszyn and Sean Gentille
One of my favorite things to do each year is check the betting odds for all the various awards. Not because I want to actually wager on any of them, but because it’s always fascinating to see what kind of consensus is forming around who’s likely to win what — and who isn’t.
Despite all the effort and analysis that goes into setting those odds, it’s not unusual for a long shot to come out of nowhere and win a major award. Leon Draisaitl was 22-to-1 to win the Hart in 2020, Adam Fox was 35-to-1 to win the Norris in 2021, and Linus Ullmark was 80-to-1 to win the Vezina in 2023. Were the oddsmakers dumb? Not really. It’s just that the NHL is incredibly unpredictable, and the awards odds are just another reminder of that inescapable fact.
Every now and then, I like to take a swing at finding those long-shot winners in advance. Last year, I enlisted the help of Dom Luszczyszyn and Sean Gentille to help me, and we each made a long-shot pick for each major award.
How’d it go? Not great! It turned out to be a tough year to ride a dark horse, with the Norris (Cale Makar), Vezina (Connor Hellebuyck) and Selke (Aleksander Barkov) all going to favorites. Nikita Kucherov’s Art Ross and Draisaitl’s Rocket Richard weren’t long shots either. But even in a year of mostly chalk, there were surprises. Spencer Carbery went into the season at 22-to-1 to win the Jack Adams. And while Hellebuyck’s Vezina was no surprise, his Hart certainly was — his preseason odds were a stunning 150-to-1.
Did the three of us nail any of those picks? We did not. And as you’d expect from this sort of exercise, some of our picks look pretty silly in hindsight. Connor Bedard did not, in fact, follow in the footsteps of Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid and win the Hart Trophy in Year 2. Jesper Wallstedt did not win the Calder. Alexandar Georgiev fell just short of the Vezina, and eventually also just short of having a job. But even with all those swing-and-miss picks, we at least fouled a few off. Gentille took Martin St. Louis as his Jack Adams pick at 35-to-1, and he was a finalist. And while Thomas Harley didn’t win the Norris, he did finish seventh, which isn’t bad for a guy who we had at 300-to-1.
This year, we’re going to try again. Below, you’ll find our long-shot picks for several major awards, based on Fanduel odds that were current as of earlier this week (note that odds can shift as the season gets closer). Our cut off is 20-to-1, so we’ll need to be both lucky and good. Let’s take a few more big swings and see if this is the year we can knock one out of the park.
Norris Trophy (best defenseman)
McIndoe: This one feels like fertile ground for a long-shot pick, with oddsmakers apparently so convinced that this is a two-horse race between Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes that nobody else has much of a chance. That leaves plenty of tempting names, but I’ll show some loyalty and go back to last year’s pick: Thomas Harley, whose odds have jumped from 2024’s 300-to-1 to a more reasonable but still enticing 60-to-1. Not bad for a guy who finished top 10 in last year’s voting.
Luszczyszyn: There are two things I’m mad about here. The first is that Adam Fox’s egregious line has moved from 35-to-1 earlier this summer to out of our 20-to-1 range. The second is that Rasmus Dahlin just barely misses the cut-off at 19-to-1 — he would’ve been my easy choice considering how high I am on the Sabres this season.
My pick: Moritz Seider at … 500-to-1?! That feels like an absolutely ludicrous price for someone who established himself as one of the game’s top defensemen last season. There are a lot of voters hungry to vote for a Defense-First Guy, and Seider fits that bill while still putting up enough points to warrant consideration (sorry Jaccob Slavin). Seider has some vintage Drew Doughty vibes where he might not need 70 points for consideration; 60 might do. If the Red Wings make the playoffs, Seider will be a big part of that. He should be priced a lot closer to our next pick.
Gentille: Lobbing up a first-pitch meatball, are we? I’m taking Jake Sanderson at 85-to-1. There were several NHL people I spoke to for the Player Tiers who sounded borderline obsessed with him; I think last season put him on a lot of radars for awards consideration, and laying that sort of track is important. Also, if Ottawa’s power-play can be a little better than mid-grade, his point total will jump into the 60s or 70s, and I’m not sure that’s in the cards for Seider.
Vezina Trophy (best goalie)
McIndoe: The logic for picking the Vezina is that it’s voted on by GMs who like to see big win totals, so if you can pick a guy from a team that will win a ton, then you’re halfway there. I think the Avs will do a lot of winning, and I haven’t been able to have a conversation with Jesse Granger in two years that doesn’t end up with him rambling about how much he loves Mackenzie Blackwood, so you do the math. I’ll take him at 27-to-1.
Luszczyszyn: Anthony Stolarz has the per-game numbers to be Vezina-worthy; he just needs the start volume. Last year, he put his name on the map in a big market. This year, I would like to see him have a good season akin to Linus Ullmark’s win during the 2022-23 season. Maybe not “40-6-1 and a .938 save percentage” good, but 50 games with a high-end save percentage and a lot of wins could be enough. I’ll take that at 27-to-1.
Gentille: I’d love to vote for Jeremy Swayman (40-1) here, but I’m pretty sure the Bruins are going to be disqualifyingly bad. Whatever — let’s get nuts. Stuart Skinner at 150-1. This is a regular-season award! What value! It’s within the realm of possibility that Skinner strings together five good months as the Oilers rack up wins, and we all know they’re never going to even attempt replacing him.
Calder Trophy (best rookie)
McIndoe: I’m not sure why we’re including this one, since my understanding is that they’ve already inscribed Ivan Demidov’s name on the trophy. But on the off chance they create a second award, put me down for Washington’s Ryan Leonard at 25-to-1.
Luszczyszyn: I don’t know anything about prospects, but I’ll gladly take the 2024 top-10 pick who put up back-to-back 100-plus point seasons in the WHL. It’s possible Berkly Catton doesn’t make the Kraken out of camp, but he looks to be penciled in at the moment on a team that’s desperate for offensive firepower. He’s flying under the radar a bit at 70-to-1 odds.
Gentille: Yeah, I’m trying to follow last season’s arc, when Matvei Michkov started the season as everybody’s Calder choice before getting passed pretty decisively by Lane Hutson. In the realm of the long shots, I think Zayne Parekh (25-to-1) comes closest. The prospect guys, Scott Wheeler in particular, view him as someone with next-level offensive potential at the position. All he’s got to do is make the Flames first.
Can Zayne Parekh make a case for the Calder Trophy this season? (Sergei Belski / Imagn Images)Selke Trophy (defensive forward)
McIndoe: The Selke feels like the most futile award to try to find a long shot for. It’s usually a lifetime achievement sort of thing, which makes it hard for anyone to come out of nowhere to win. Barkov is the overwhelming favorite, with his -115 odds implying that he’s more likely to win than everyone else in the league combined. And on the off chance that he gets hurt and missed time, the next favorite is his own teammate, Sam Reinhart, who’d get a boost from the extra playing time and responsibility.
The good news, for our purposes, is that Barkov is such a huge favorite that only four other players even fall below our 20-to-1 cutoff — Reinhart, Nico Hischier, Anthony Cirelli and Jack Eichel. So we have the entire rest of the league to choose from. I’ll go with a guy who at least checks the “lifetime achievement” box: Anze Kopitar, who already has two Selkes and is listed at 30-to-1 in what will be his final season.
Luszczyszyn: No award is shaped more by discourse and reputation, so we’re going to have to start early to shape the discussion. The Seth Jarvis propaganda begins now. He might already be one of the league’s best defensive forwards not named Barkov or Reinhart and feels incredibly underpriced at 60-to-1. He finished last year fifth in Defensive Rating.
Gentille: I’ve always thought Joel Eriksson Ek (55-to-1) had a Selke final or three in his future. That hasn’t quite come to pass, but whatever. McIndoe has the whole situation licked, as usual, and the value on Eriksson Ek isn’t bad.
Art Ross (leading point scorer)
McIndoe: Last year, I picked Mitch Marner at 75-to-1, writing “if you don’t think it’s possible that he has a career year, wins the scoring title, goes cold in the playoffs and then leaves in free agency to win a Cup somewhere else, then you don’t know what it’s like to be a Maple Leafs fan.” He finished fifth, but the rest of the script seems to be playing out. I’ll take him again, this time at a more reasonable 35-to-1.
Luszczyszyn: Last year, Jack Eichel scored at a 100-point pace despite dropping from 4.4 shots per game to 3.0 shots per game. I really like the idea of him finding his scoring touch next to a pure playmaker like Mitch Marner and 22-to-1 feels solid for a player in that echelon. And also Gentille stole who I was going to pick.
Gentille: Why do Rickard Rakell and Sidney Crosby (200-to-1) have the same Art Ross odds? It seems unfair to go with Jack Hughes (30-to-1) here, but that’s what I’ll do. Not my rules. But yeah, if (big “if”) Hughes stays healthy, he should be in the conversation. If you want an actual long shot, go with Robert Thomas or Tim Stützle. Probably the best value in the 200-to-1 crowd.
Rocket Richard (leading goal scorer)
McIndoe: Here’s a fun trivia question to distract from the fact that I’m not sure there’s much in the way of value to be found here. Can you name the most recent Rocket Richard winner who’s no longer active? While you think about that, I’ll slip in a half-hearted Kyle Connor pick at 75-to-1.
Luszczyszyn: Tage Thompson led the league in five-on-five goals last year with 33 and it wasn’t particularly close either. The problem: a disgustingly bad Buffalo power play where he only managed seven goals, his lowest since becoming a PP1 mainstay. A better power play is all Thompson needs to be a serious threat for the Rocket Richard (easier said than done in Buffalo), so I’ll take him at 22-to-1.
Gentille: I’d love to say the pendulum has swung too far on Jason Robertson (150-to-1), but I’m not sure he’s going to start the season on Dallas’ PP1. That makes it tough. Let’s go with Macklin Celebrini instead (150-to-1). It’s not going to happen, but I just think he’s fun.
Jon Cooper has never won the Jack Adams. (Johnnie Izquierdo / Getty Images)Jack Adams Award (coach of the year)
McIndoe: In theory, this award is for the best coach. In reality, it’s often more about the most surprising team, especially if it’s one that has a relatively new face behind the bench. I’ll go with Detroit’s Todd McLellan, on the hopes that he can get the Wings back into the playoffs in his first full season.
Luszczyszyn: It’s a massive indictment on this award that Jon Cooper has never won it. What would it even take for him to win? A 120-point Presidents’ Trophy win — would that even do it? Is that surprising enough? Whatever, it doesn’t matter. There’ll probably be some other team that everyone thought would be terrible that makes the playoffs in shocking fashion. Just give me Lindy Ruff at 25-to-1.
Gentille: I was going to go with McLellan, too, but for the sake of variety, give me Travis Green. Voters have been waiting for the Sens to make the jump for a while, and they’ve finally got enough pieces in place to make it stick. Green is either going to be in the Adams race or on the hot seat.
Jim Gregory Award (GM of the year)
McIndoe: This is one full-season award that isn’t voted on as soon as the regular season ends; instead, the ballots come in after two rounds of the playoffs. That means it almost always goes to a conference finalist, and the odds reflect that, with basically all the best teams’ GMs listed at the top. If I had the option to pass, I’d probably use it here. But I don’t, so let’s go with Anaheim’s Pat Verbeek. He’s had a busy summer, and I think we’re all sleeping on the Ducks’ chances of sneaking into the playoffs. If that happens, maybe everyone gets bored of voting for Jim Nill established contenders and decide to go with a rebuild instead.
Luszczyszyn: This is a tough one because all the teams you’d expect to make the final four are under the 20-to-1 range. Everyone Hates Chris, but it’s not hard to see the Rangers surging back to contention thanks to a new coach and the addition of Vladislav Gavrikov. I have to assume Chris Drury will make some big deadline splash on top of that, too. He’s a fine option at 30-to-1.
Gentille: There’s no point in pretending this is going to anyone other than Bill Zito. It’s going to be unanimous. Kent Hughes (30-to-1) seems a little low, though. The Canadiens are good, and they’re good because of him.
Hart Trophy (MVP)
McIndoe: With Hellebuyck winning last year, the question is whether that was a sign that voters are finally warming up to goalies, or whether it will be another once-a-decade exception that proves the rule, just like Carey Price or Jose Theodore. I’m pretty sure it’s the latter, but there’s just enough of a chance it’s the former that I’ll try Igor Shesterkin at 80-to-1. He’s one of the best goalies in the league on a team that missed the playoffs last year but should make them this time, and if he has a strong year, he’ll get a big chunk of the credit for that.
Also, I almost forgot the trivia answer: You have to go all the way back to Vincent Lecavalier in 2007 to find a Rocket Richard winner who’s no longer active.
Luszczyszyn: I’m going to continue my Sabres love fest by going with Rasmus Dahlin at 250-to-1. Here’s the script: The Sabres finally fix their power play enough for Dahlin to rack up some major points. He leads Buffalo and breaks 90 while adding more defensive bite than his peers. All of that pushes the Sabres to a decisive playoff berth where Dahlin becomes the first defenseman to win a Hart Trophy since Chris Pronger in 2000. This is the year!
Gentille: Voters, en masse, got over their reticence to vote for goalies. It’s past time for them to do the same with defensemen. I think Nathan MacKinnon will make it borderline impossible for Makar to be the guy, though. Know who doesn’t have a teammate ready to siphon votes from him? Quinn Hughes (40-1). He should’ve finished higher than 12th last season, that’s for sure. The Canucks, yet again, will go wherever he drags them.
(Top photos of Quinn Hughes and Jack Hughes: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images and Timothy T. Ludwig / Imagn Images)