Sunday’s elite men’s road race at the Road World Championships in Kigali is one of the most anticipated races of the year, as the whole world looks on to see who will don the coveted rainbow jersey.

The men’s road race course in Kigali is being touted as one of the hardest in history, with multiple laps of a hilly, city circuit packing in 6,000m of climbing across 268km. Not only that, but the whole race will be at altitude, with the central parts of Kigali sitting at 1,500m above sea level, and Mount Kigali taking the peloton even higher up.

With the repeated, almost constant climbing, and one of the climbs, the Côte de Kimihurura, the route has the characteristics of a climbing Classic, with tough, exciting racing expected on Sunday.

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With such a difficult course and conditions, the men’s road race is set to draw out only the strongest winners to be in contention for winning. One of the best climbers and one-day racers of his generation, defending world champion Tadej Pogačar (Slovenia) is a big favourite to defend his title, though Remco Evenepoel‘s (Belgium) emphatic time trial win has boosted his stocks.

finishing fourth after being caught by winner Remco Evenepoel, but for a rider who has never been a hugely successful time trialist outside of the Grand Tours, it shouldn’t be a massive sign of problems. He’ll also have had more time to adjust to the weather and air conditions in Kigali by Sunday, which should help.

A rider who is undeniably strong and often able to just ride away from the field, and would clearly love to wear the rainbow jersey for another year, it’s hard to imagine what would have to happen for him not to win on Sunday if he’s fit. His opponents are strong, but few have ever beaten him in a road race, plus he has a very capable Slovenian support team that includes Primož Roglič. Anything but another win would be a disappointment for Pogačar, so expect to see him going all in for gold.

He stormed to a dominant victory in the TT on Sunday, backing up his claims that he’s in his best form of the season, and he’ll be hoping to carry that through to the road race.

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It’s easy to forget Evenepoel’s one-day prowess, because he isn’t a Pogačar or a Mathieu van der Poel, but he is a two-time winner of Liège-Bastogne-Liège, and three-time Clásica San Sebastián winner. He also finished third at Amstel Gold Race this year, after pulling back a Pogačar solo attack, which is the race many have compared the Kigali course to, so he has the characteristics to do well here. Belgium are always one of the strongest teams at Worlds, too, and even if he’s missing Tiesj Benoot, Evenepoel’s TT dominance will surely give him confidence to try and take another road race title, too.

Giro d’Italia, where he finished second overall after leading until the penultimate day, Del Toro has been on a winning streak all summer, winning two stage races and six one-day races in the last few months. The young Mexican seems to have an exceptionally strong combination of climbing and punchiness, which is exactly what is needed on a course like this.

One thing that could hold him back is the distance, with 268km the longest race Del Toro will do this year, and a tough ask for the rider who is still only 21. The other is his team. He’s used to riding for the best team in the world, UAE Team Emirates-XRG, usually, but on Sunday, he’ll only have two teammates, who are unlikely to be useful too far into the race. However, fifth in the TT shows he is clearly on form, and Del Toro is a rider who consistently defies expectations, so a top result wouldn’t be surprising.

conscious uncoupling from UAE Team Emirates-XRG, so he’ll be hoping to end 2025 on something of a high in Rwanda. He’s already come out swinging and said even silver wouldn’t be enough for him, so it’s clear his ambitions are high.

Is he suited to the course, though? A strong climber, he shouldn’t have too many issues on the climbs and altitude that define the Kigali parcours, and despite being mainly a GC rider, he does have a great uphill punch, in the ilk of a Primož Roglič. However, he’s not the most consistent one-day racer, which could present a real challenge, and he’ll be hoping that the climbs whittle things down quickly and that his pure strength carries him into the lead groups that form. That said, he wouldn’t be here and talking himself up if he didn’t think he could win, and his double Vuelta stage wins show he’s in a good patch of form, so he can certainly contend for a solid result.

Tour de France fourth-place finisher Oscar Onley is also starting for GB, and could be a contender in his own right, but can also be a great final helper for Pidcock. Pidcock certainly has the confidence to go up against riders like Pogačar and Evenepoel, so expect to see him getting stuck in to the pointy parts of Sunday’s race.

Egan Bernal has never ridden an elite World Championships before, but it’s not hard to see why he’s picked Kigali to make his debut. Born at altitude in Colombia, Bernal should, in theory, adapt better to the conditions than some of his rivals, and he’s shown this year that he’s back towards his best level. Where he’s mainly done well this season is on the shorter, punchier climbs, so his less impressive GC performance at the Vuelta shouldn’t be an enormous cause for concern, as it’s the punch rather than the endurance which will be needed here.

What Bernal lacks is probably some one-day experience, but the World Championships are a unique kind of one-day race, so that isn’t an automatic problem. If the climbers make the race hard from early on, Bernal should be able to come to the fore quite quickly and could be in for a good result. He also has some strong support for the early part in the form of Harold Tejada and Brandon Rivera.

Richard Carapaz. The Ecuadorian rider skipped the Vuelta in order to focus on the World Championships road race, so this is clearly something he thinks he can win. Winner of the Olympic Games road race in Tokyo in 2021, Carapaz has prior form in these big, one-off road races, and knows how to thrive in the particular circumstances of a race like the World Championships. He’s also made a habit of riding the Ardennes races in recent years, so despite being seen as a GC rider, he does also have the ability on hilly parcours like this.

Instead of the Vuelta, Carapaz rode a series of Italian one-day races and the Tour of Luxembourg, and had middling but not exceptional results, with a few top 10s. This means there isn’t a recent sign of any outstanding form, but it could also be that he was using those events as a warm-up, and not going all out yet. Carapaz has four teammates in the road race, which will be useful, and he’s clearly serious about adding a world title to his Olympic one, so don’t be surprised to see him on the podium.

Julian Alaphilippe probably wouldn’t have made this list, but his performances at the Tour of Britain Men and then his win at the GP de Québec are enough for him to sneak back on.

He’s clearly in good form, he definitely knows how to win the World Championships, and he has a very strong French team around him, including Valentin Paret-Peintre, Valentin Madouas, Paul Seixas and Pavel Sivakov. The amount of climbing will definitely make it hard for Alaphilippe, who really isn’t a pure climber, but if he can tame his instincts and save his energy for the right moment, he could be a dark horse for another top result at Worlds.

Ben Healy has had a quiet summer since his yellow jersey-wearing exploits at the Tour de France, and only returned to racing at the Tour of Luxembourg, where he took second on a stage, so we’re not quite sure where his form is. However, a rider who loves the Ardennes and hilly races and is clearly on a good level this year, Healy has to be a contender for at least the top 10.

The Irishman does have some weaknesses, for example, he’ll admit that his sprint lets him down, but he’s incredibly good at being in the right place at the right time, and this could be the secret on Sunday. Eddie Dunbar, Archie Ryan and Darren Rafferty are capable climbers in support of him, and Ireland should go all-in on their big star.

He made great decisions to get into the lead group at last year’s Olympics and World Championships road race, so he has the nous to sneak away into a break and the time trialling ability to stay away if those behind look at each other. Healy is not to be ignored on Sunday.

Giulio Ciccone, winner of San Sebastián this year and second at Liège-Bastogne-Liège behind the imperious Pogačar. The Italian may have come away from the Vuelta without the stage win he was looking for, but he had several good results, including almost matching Vingegaard on the explosive stage 2 finish. Even if victory didn’t arrive, Ciccone was on good form in Spain, and will be hoping he has brought that with him to Rwanda. He is Italy’s best hope, and can count on some decent support from riders like Mattia Cattaneo and Matteo Sobrero.

Mattias Skjelmose (Denmark) – One of the very few riders to beat Pogačar and Evenepoel in a one-day race from this year’s Amstel Gold race and in good shape after a recent win at the Tour de LuxembourgMichael Matthews (Australia) – A multiple-time medallist at Worlds who is coming back from an illness scare, but had good results in Québec and the Bretagne ClassicNatnael Tesfatsion (Eritrea) – A real contender representing the African nation, with some good one-day results in the lead up to the World Championships, and support from Biniam GirmayThymen Arensman (Netherlands) – The double Tour de France stage winner knows what it takes to hold off a charging Pogačar, but won’t like the punchy climbs as much as the longer ones of the Grand ToursMarc Hirschi (Switzerland) – A hilly one-day race specialist who is coming into his favourite part of the season, and could benefit from flying under the radar

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