It’s crunch month for Yuki Tsunoda.
The Japanese star got his big break at Red Bull Racing earlier this year, but as has been the case for so many drivers to get the nod at Milton Keynes, the chalice was poisoned.
Having been one of last year’s standout performers, Tsunoda has flopped massively on the biggest stage of his career, scoring just 17 points over the last 15 rounds. His score in Azerbaijan was only his second top-10 result from the previous 10 rounds.
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The clock is ticking, with management setting an end-October deadline — coinciding with the Mexico City Grand Prix — to decide who will partner Max Verstappen next season.
It’s a call that will have repercussions for two of the other three drivers in its four-car line-up.
The continuity of Liam Lawson in Formula 1 is attached directly to Tsunoda’s future.
That’s because Red Bull could have junior driver Arvid Lindblad in the mix. Highly rated by the brand, Lindblad is in his first Formula 2 season but is a strong chance to earn promotion to F1 in 2026.
If Tsunoda stays at Red Bull Racing, Lawson’s seat will be earmarked for Lindblad.
If Tsunoda is axed, Isack Hadjar is next in line for the Red Bull Racing meat grinder. Lindblad will take Hadjar’s seat, leaving space for one of either Lawson or Tsunoda. THE other will be ejected into a driver market that’s almost all sewn up.
Four into three simply doesn’t go, and the next few rounds could shape up as a shootout for the final seat in the Red Bull roster.
With the deadline drawing nearer, both drivers are out to make a statement.
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A-GAME IN AZERBAIJAN
Both Tsunoda and Lawson are rising to the challenge, with both performing strongly in Azerbaijan.
Tsunoda, who at long last was equipped with the same full set of upgrades as Verstappen, qualified sixth, his best Saturday result since joining the team.
He finished in the same position, which is likewise his best result in Red Bull Racing colours.
The upgrade will undoubtedly have played a part, but Tsunoda also credited some simulator work he did during the mid-season break as helping to boost his performance.
“Something I changed on the car seems to be working really well,” he said, per The Race. “Obviously there is some finetuning with my driving as well that I’ve worked quite hard to improve.
“I wanted to find the reason why I was so much behind [before], and I tried multiple sim sessions. Then I found something, and when I applied it to this track it seems to be working very well.”
Tsunoda refused to say what it was, but he was clearly upbeat about its prospects to revitalise his season.
“He’s working very hard. He has never backed off,” Red Bull Racing boss Laurent Mekies said, per Autosport. “He came straight to the simulator instead of going on holiday [at the mid-season break], he said: ‘No, no, I’ll go back to the simulator with the team and work the next day’.
“And that’s the approach he has. Every weekend when he’s not racing, he’s working somewhere with his engineers or on his driving, and I’m very happy for him that he shows progress.
“I think it’s his best race with us this year. The one thing that was probably the most important for us is to get that clean sample, as we said last time. I think he was listening and it’s good.”
By “clean sample” Mekies was referring to a clean run through the weekend with equal machinery and without getting stuck in traffic and out of position during the race. Azerbaijan was Tsunoda’s first such weekend in several rounds, and he nailed his chance.
“Speed doesn’t disappear,” Mekies continues. “Drivers make progress.
“It’s such a confidence business, and you see the confidence of Yuki was certainly high up, and he did very, very, strongly.”
It was the weekend Tsunoda needed.
Except for one thing.
The driver he finished behind was Lawson.
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LAWSON IS BACK TO HIS BEST
If Tsunoda had a good weekend, Lawson had a great one, qualifying a tremendous third for Racing Bulls and finishing a commendable fifth. The deciding moment of his top-five pursuit was a pass on Tsunoda late in the race, admittedly when the Red Bull Racing car was battling with cold tyres fresh from a pit stop.
It was the best qualifying and race result of the New Zealander’s Formula 1 career.
“Obviously it is a little bit disappointing from where we are starting, and realistically we didn’t have the speed to fight with the guys in front today,” he said.
“But you’re always hopeful, and we tried everything today, but there just wasn’t quite enough.
“But still, to have a P5 is big for us, especially in the [constructors] championship right now. Massive thanks to the team. We have had a good car all weekend, and I’m happy to come home with some points.”
While fifth was the second-best result of the season for Racing Bulls — after Hadjar’s podium in the Netherlands — this was no one-off result for Lawson.
A look at his season results show a clear upwards trajectory that makes this strong return largely unsurprising.
It took him time to recover from his confidence-sapping demotion from Red Bull Racing after two rounds and to adjust to his new car, but since May he’s been a good match for the highly rated Hadjar.
And despite Hadjar finishing on the podium in the Netherlands, there’s been practically nothing to separate them over the last five rounds.
They have both appeared in Q3 four times from the last five, and in that time each has scored three times for a total of 18 points apiece to move the team into sixth in the standings 10 points clear of Aston Martin and 29 points behind Williams.
Lawson is only nine points behind Hadjar in the title standings, 30-39.
His qualifying pace is also clearly improving. Over the last five rounds he’s been on average 0.121 seconds slower than Hadjar, whereas in the races before then he was on average 0.322 seconds adrift.
In recent months we’ve finally seen Lawson return to the sort of form that got him into Daniel Ricciardo’s seat late last year and earnt him his shock and short-lived Red Bull Racing promotion for 2025.
Given this season is his first on the grid full-time — notwithstanding he didn’t have a smooth pre-season, and it was anyway with the wrong team — it amounts to a strong argument on his behalf for retention.
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‘WE HAVE TIME …’
Every race this month — and perhaps for longer — weighs heavily on the careers of both Tsunoda and Lawson.
This weekend’s Singapore Grand Prix will be an interesting chance for both.
Tsunoda has a reasonable qualifying history here — he’s lined up 10th, 15th and eighth — but a dreadful finishing record.
Last year’s 12th-place finish was the first time he saw the chequered flag in Marina Bay; he retired from his previous two entries with collision damage.
But the Japanese star remains buoyed by what he felt in the car in Baku.
“It feels like I’m moving in a positive direction with the car and the hard work we have all been putting in is paying off across the race weekend,” he said.
“Baku is obviously quite a unique circuit and Singapore will be very different for us and could pose some challenges.
“It’s one of the biggest tests we have as drivers. But that’s what makes it fun, and I enjoy preparing for it and racing there.”
Lawson has entered this race only once — in 2023, his second grand prix substituting for the injured Ricciardo. He qualified 10th and scored points for ninth. It was his equal best career finish until this year’s Monaco Grand Prix.
Returning to this track for the first time since then, he feels he has momentum behind him.
“It always brings back great memories,” he said. “It’s such a beautiful place but also very humid and hot, so I expect it to be tough. However, I’m very excited to return this weekend.”
Picking a favourite this weekend is as difficult as picking which driver should move ahead of the queue to race next season.
And while the preferred trajectory appears to have been for Lindblad to displace one of these under-pressure drivers, that doesn’t necessarily have to be what happens.
If both Tsunoda and Lawson continue improving, we could see them partner each other at Racing Bulls while Lindblad remains in Formula 2. The British junior has been decent without having set the world on fire in his maiden F2 campaign this year, where he’s a distant seventh in the championship with two rounds remaining.
Given the Red Bull program is facing this driver dilemma in part because it’s had a habit of promoting drivers too quickly or with not enough support, making the same mistake with Lindblad could end up burning another promising young talent.
“We have time,” Mekies said. “Why would we rush?
“We will not wait until Abu Dhabi, but we have a few more races for sure.”
It’s still all to play for, but the clock is ticking for Tsunoda and Lawson.