And then there were eight.
The Wild Card Series finally delivered on its promise Thursday, giving us three winner-take-all games to set up a wide-open Division Series. I’m going to be honest here, I did not pick the Blue Jays and Mariners to have byes in the American League back when I made my predictions on September 20. And sure, while I knew the Brewers would capitalize on the market inefficiency of “playing baseball,” I still didn’t think they’d lead all of baseball in wins.
With eight teams left, I can see eight different teams emerging as a champion. And that’s because, I’ve seen teams like each of these teams do it before.
I’ve looked through history for teams that entered the postseason with similar statistics to this year’s eight remaining playoff entrants. I’ve looked at every World Series winner since divisions were instituted in 1969 and gauged how well they did compared to the league average that season in runs scored, runs allowed, home runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, ERA, strikeout rate and walk rate. I also looked at their record in September to see whether momentum can play a role.
There’s a historical comp for all eight teams left — a team that resembled it on paper at the start of October and ended the month holding the World Series trophy.
Anything can happen, because most everything already has.
Toronto Blue Jays
Historical Comp: 2011 St. Louis Cardinals
Team
W
L
RD
RS+
RA+
OBP+
SLG+
HR+
ERA+
K%+
BB%+
94
68
77
110
100
106
106
101
100
106
99
18
90
72
70
110
100
106
107
106
99
95
111
15
A pretty good offense led by a big-time slugging first baseman about to hit free agency? Ugh, the Blue Jays wrecked this comparison by extending Vladimir Guerrero Jr. back in the spring.
Nevertheless, the 2011 Cardinals and this year’s Blue Jays have strong offenses built around their righty-hitting first basemen and a resurgent year from a 35-year-old better known for his years elsewhere. That’s Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman for St. Louis, Guerrero and George Springer for Toronto.
Both teams even had veteran pitching staffs without any standout individual performances (save for maybe Eric Lauer’s career year for Toronto). Now, can Ernie Clement or Addison Barger play David Freese?
Seattle Mariners
Historical Comp: 1996 New York Yankees
Team
W
L
RD
RS+
RA+
OBP+
SLG+
HR+
ERA+
K%+
BB%+
90
72
72
106
104
101
104
127
102
104
112
92
70
84
107
104
106
102
92
108
110
93
In terms of run scoring and run prevention, these teams align almost perfectly. They do, however, go about it in pretty different ways. Bernie Williams led those Yankees with 29 home runs; Cal Raleigh, as you may have heard, hit more than twice that many. The Mariners had three other guys hit at least 25 for them, and that doesn’t count Eugenio Suárez and the 49 he hit between Arizona and Seattle. This is a team that lives on the home run.
While the Mariners’ overall pitching stats compare favorably here, those Yankees did have one weapon Seattle likely lacks: fireman Mariano Rivera. As dominant as Rivera was throughout his postseason career, you can make a strong case he was never more valuable than in this postseason, when he was recoding six outs every night ahead of John Wetteland.
New York Yankees
Historical Comp: 2009 New York Yankees
Team
W
L
RD
RS+
RA+
OBP+
SLG+
HR+
ERA+
K%+
BB%+
94
68
164
118
105
104
112
145
103
107
90
103
59
162
123
99
109
114
145
108
112
97
Despite losing nine more games during the regular season, this year’s Yankees actually produced a better run differential than their last championship team. It mashed home runs at the same league-leading rate (when compared to the league average) and it made up for a pitching staff that walked too many hitters by striking out enough of them.
Both rotations were led by left-handers in the first year of big contracts; CC Sabathia and Max Fried each won 19 games in their first seasons in the Bronx.
The other comparison that can excite Yankees’ fans is this, simpler one. No team this season looks more like the last two World Series winners than the Yankees.
Team
W
L
RD
RS+
RA+
▼
94
68
164
118
105
98
64
156
118
104
90
72
165
118
104
Detroit Tigers
Historical Comp: 2006 St. Louis Cardinals
Team
W
L
RD
RS+
RA+
OBP+
SLG+
HR+
ERA+
K%+
BB%+
87
75
67
105
104
100
103
107
101
102
104
83
78
19
100
103
100
100
102
98
93
103
Sure, a team every Tigers fan wants to think about.
The main commonality between these two teams is the way their season changed in September. St. Louis’ 12-17 record from September 1 on is the worst-ever for a World Series winner; Detroit just went 7-17 this past month. In each case, that poor finish obscures an otherwise strong season. St. Louis was once 16 over .500, Detroit as many as 25 over.
As that suggests, the Tigers are better statistically all around. Even while headlined by Tarik Skubal, they own a deeper roster than a Cardinals team that leaned so heavily on Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen and Chris Carpenter.
Milwaukee Brewers
Historical Comp: 2002 Anaheim Angels
Team
W
L
RD
RS+
RA+
OBP+
SLG+
HR+
ERA+
K%+
BB%+
97
65
172
112
112
106
100
90
107
107
98
99
63
207
114
114
103
104
90
120
97
104
95
Best record in franchise history? Check. Equally adept at scoring runs and preventing runs? Check. Not especially proficient with the long ball? Check. While the ’02 Angels lacked home-field advantage throughout the postseason — they didn’t even win their division — they actually align really closely with these Brewers, right down to the sweet-swinging lefty with 29 home runs (Garrett Anderson and Christian Yelich).
Neither team boasts much offensive star power: Anderson was the Angels’ only All-Star that season, and the Brewers didn’t have any position players make the Midsummer Classic. But they made up for it with depth. Anaheim’s lineup had seven above-average hitters in it each night while Milwaukee’s has eight.
Freddy Peralta might well finish fourth in the Cy Young like Jarrod Washburn did, and Brandon Woodruff is the big veteran right-hander like Kevin Appier. And let me think, is there some hard-throwing rookie right-hander the Brewers have that could imitate Francisco Rodriguez if he came out of the pen?
One potential difference? Anaheim entered the postseason hot off an 18-9 September. Milwaukee just went 12-12 in the last month.
Philadelphia Phillies
Historical Comp: 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks
Team
W
L
RD
RS+
RA+
OBP+
SLG+
HR+
ERA+
K%+
BB%+
96
66
130
108
110
104
107
110
108
110
113
92
70
141
106
113
103
104
115
121
123
110
A dominant 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation and a 50-homer hitter headlining the lineup ain’t a bad way to go through life. Unfortunately for Philadelphia, the very top of its rotation took a hit when Zack Wheeler was lost for the season; Ranger Suárez will now try to team with Cristopher Sánchez to imitate Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling. (That Suárez, Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo are all lefties in the Year of the Lefty probably doesn’t hurt.) Kyle Schwarber can do his best Luis González, and the rest of the Phillies lineup is a touch stronger than Arizona’s.
Want to understand how strikeout rates have jumped, by the way? Those Diamondbacks struck out 21.3 percent of opposing hitters — well above the league average of 17.3 percent. A quarter-century later, Arizona would rank below 2025’s league average of 22.1 percent.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Historical Comp: 1993 Blue Jays
Team
W
L
RD
RS+
RA+
OBP+
SLG+
HR+
ERA+
K%+
BB%+
93
69
142
114
105
104
109
128
109
111
89
95
67
105
114
100
105
108
110
103
108
86
I had two options: Compare the Dodgers to the 1993 Blue Jays, which I did last year, or compare the Dodgers to…last year’s Dodgers. When confronted with such uncreative ideas, always go for the one that lets you talk about John Olerud.
Once again, the similarities between LA and that Toronto team start with the star power in the lineup. The Jays had the top three finishers in the AL batting race that year (Olerud, Paul Molitor and Roberto Alomar) while the Dodgers have Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and this year Will Smith anchoring the offense. (A former MVP having a down offensive season in the top of the order furthers the comparison: Mookie Betts is like Rickey Henderson, if Henderson…checks notes…was a Gold Glove caliber shortstop that season.)
Where Los Angeles really stands out here is with its power. The Jays hit just about a home run per game, which was above the league average in 1993. The Dodgers hit a homer and a half per game and led the National League. Rumor has it Toronto did hit an important home run somewhere that postseason.
Oh yeah, and the back-to-back thing, that works, too.
Chicago Cubs
Historical Comp: 1973 Oakland Athletics
Team
W
L
RD
RS+
RA+
OBP+
SLG+
HR+
ERA+
K%+
BB%+
92
70
144
110
110
101
105
115
110
96
118
94
68
143
111
110
102
103
113
109
96
107
Yes, let’s go way back for two teams that are neck and neck in everything but walk rate.
The second of three straight World Series winners in Oakland, the ’73 team possessed a hellacious middle of the order — Reggie Jackson in his prime won his lone MVP while Sal Bando and Gene Tenace also had huge years — and three 20-game winners in the rotation. Seven Athletics in all placed on an MVP ballot.
Kyle Tucker hasn’t been quite to Jackson’s level, but he’s rounded out one of the best and most versatile lineups in the sport, with Michael Busch and Seiya Suzuki also having big years. What the rotation lacks in top-heavy star power — come on, nobody’s matching Ken Holtzman, Vida Blue and Catfish Hunter in 2025 — it makes up for with depth. Rookie Cade Horton and Matthew Boyd, in particular, have been excellent.
(Top photo of Dodgers celebrating their triumph in the 2024 World Series: Elsa / Getty Images)