Welcome to Michael Kramer’s pick of the key market events to look out for in the week beginning Monday 6 October.
Most US economic data releases are on pause after the federal government shut down at 00:01 (Washington DC time) on Wednesday 1 October. The shutdown – the first for seven years – has resulted in roughly 750,000 federal workers going on unpaid leave. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will not publish the September jobs figures as planned today (Friday 3 October), and other scheduled data releases are likely to be delayed or cancelled.
The absence of official data could be a double-edged sword: while many traders may welcome a break from the volatility that economic data can trigger, the market might lean more heavily on less reliable information, which could create even more volatility than usual in the near term. It’s unclear when the shutdown will end, leaving us without crucial signals about the health of the world’s largest economy for the foreseeable future.
One release that is still set to go ahead is the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index on Friday 10 October. Away from the US, it’s business as usual, with eurozone retail sales figures – out on Monday – among the releases to watch. We preview both below, alongside a look at US carrier Delta Air Lines’ third-quarter results.
Eurozone August retail sales
Monday 6 October
Analysts estimate that retail sales in the eurozone increased 0.1% month-on-month in August, a much stronger performance than the 0.5% decline in July. Eurozone retail sales have been quite volatile in recent months, with several large swings up and down, and – perhaps more importantly – a reversal of what had been a steady uptrend. The upcoming data is therefore likely to be important, with investors looking for a rebound. Retail sales serve as an indicator of consumer spending, so a high reading is generally seen as bullish for the euro, while a low increase or a decline is seen as bearish.
This means that EUR/USD remains vulnerable to further declines. The technical setup, as shown on the chart below, looks weak. The pair has trended lower since mid-September, and the relative strength index (RSI) is also falling, suggesting that momentum has shifted from bullish to bearish. At this rate, EUR/USD needs to find support at $1.157, since a break below that level could risk a further weakening towards $1.14.
EUR/USD, January 2025 – present
Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer
Delta Air Lines Q3 earnings
Thursday 9 October
Delta Air Lines is set to report that its Q3 earnings rose 1.7% year-on-year to $1.53 a share as revenue increased 2.9% to $15.0bn, based on analysts’ estimates. Looking ahead to Q4, earnings are expected to fall 12.5% year-on-year to $1.62 a share, even though revenue is projected to rise 1.2% over the period to $14.6bn. Shares of the world’s largest airline by revenue have dropped 3.4% year-to-date, closing at $57.08 on Thursday 2 October. The stock could see a post-earnings move of about 6.8%, based on options market positioning.
Options positioning is relatively bullish heading into results week, but also suggests that potential upside may be capped at around $62, where there is a significant concentration of call gamma. Meanwhile, the largest amount of put gamma sits near $50.
Technical trends indicate a more bearish outlook, as the below chart illustrates. The S&P 500 constituent’s stock price is in a clear downtrend and the RSI is also trending lower. Based on momentum and the prevailing trend, it seems possible that Delta’s shares may continue to decline following the results, unless the company delivers better-than-expected earnings or guidance. The next area of support lies around $50, a level that dates back to July and coincides with the large put gamma concentration.
Delta Air Lines share price, June 2024 – present
Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer
Michigan October consumer sentiment index
Friday 10 October
US consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan’s monthly survey, has been trending lower in recent months, following a rebound from the lows of April and May. Any sign of improving consumer spending – a key driver of the US economy – could boost the dollar, which has lost ground against other major currencies in 2025. The dollar could benefit not only against the euro but also against the British pound, with GBP/USD having trended lower recently.
Whatever positive momentum the pound had from August to early September, as recorded by a rise in GBP/USD’s RSI during that period, now appears to have faded. The RSI has resumed its downtrend, indicating that momentum has turned bearish. Currently, the pound is holding onto support around $1.34. A break below this level could see GBP/USD weaken towards $1.317, which has acted as support on two occasions in 2025.
If, however, US consumer confidence has deteriorated further in October, it is possible that GBP/USD could rise on dollar weakness and rebound towards resistance at $1.357. That said, such an outcome seems unlikely given the prevailing trends.
GBP/USD, July 2024 – present
Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer
Major upcoming economic announcements and scheduled US and UK company reports include:
Monday 6 October
• Eurozone: August retail sales
• Results: Constellation Brands (Q2)
Tuesday 7 October
• Australia: October Westpac consumer confidence
• Germany: August factory orders
• UK: September like-for-like retail sales
• Results: CVS Group (FY), McCormick & Company (Q3)
Wednesday 8 October
• Germany: August industrial production
• New Zealand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision
• US: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes
• Results: Netcall (FY)
Thursday 9 October
• Australia: October consumer inflation expectations
• Eurozone: European Central Bank policy meeting accounts
• Germany: August trade balance
• Results: Applied Digital (Q1), Delta Air Lines (Q3), Levi Strauss & Co. (Q3), PepsiCo (Q3), S&U (HY), Volution (FY)
Friday 10 October
• Canada: September net change in employment, September unemployment rate, September average hourly wages
• US: October flash University of Michigan consumer sentiment index
• Results: No major scheduled earnings announcements
Note: While we check all dates carefully to ensure that they are correct at the time of writing, the above announcements are subject to change.
Find your flow: four principles for trading in the zone
Learn about the four trading principles of preparation, psychology, strategy, and intuition, and gain key trading insights from some of the world’s top investors.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.