The April-June quarter each year is full of good news for airlines in India. The quarter sees increased travel as schools shut for summer holidays across the country and people travel to their native places for holidays. The Pahalgam massacre in April and Operation Sindoor in May had seen huge setbacks to travel within India. Just as it seemed that the page had turned for the better in June, the deadly crash of AI171 in Ahmedabad immediately after take-off for London Gatwick changed the dynamics.

A lot of discussion centred around passengers being worried and cancelling flights, but the numbers published by the regulator, Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA), show the numbers are in line with past years and there has been no impact of the crash, contrary to what was being speculated online. The only change that happened was the shift in market share with passengers, possibly shifting away from Air India.

Also Read: Air India’s FY25 loss widens, but narrows revenue gap with IndiGo

Air India and Air India Express’s combined market share rose to 27.1 per cent in June. The combined market share for May stood at 26.5 per cent. Last June, the group had a market share of 29.1 per cent, which was split among three carriers with Air India, Air India Express and Vistara having 24.3 per cent while AIX Connect (erstwhile AirAsia India) having 4.8 per cent market share.

IndiGo‘s market share remained flat at 64.5 per cent, a drop of 0.1 per cent over May when it recorded 64.6 per cent. The airline’s market share was 60.8 per cent in June 2024. Thus far, 2024 has been the best year for domestic air traffic in India. The traffic was up 3 per cent month over month.

No immediate impact of crash on Air India

While there were many stories on social media of people avoiding Air India in the aftermath of the deadly crash in early June, data on domestic routes suggests otherwise. In May 2025, Air India group had a load factor of 80.2 per cent, while in last June, Air India’s load factor was 84.7 per cent, Vistara had 91 per cent and AIX Connect or erstwhile AirAsia India had a load factor of 88.6 per cent. The regulator reports the load factor of the combined entity as a single report. In June 2025, the Air India group recorded a load factor of 81.5 per cent, which was higher than May. Air India seems to have gained from SpiceJet, which is now at a historic low of below 2 per cent domestic market share.

Air India has since decided to cut part of its domestic schedule, which would have an impact on its market share going forward. However, market share is a function of capacity deployed in the market and July has seen withdrawal of capacity from market leader IndiGo as well in what looks like ways to adjust demand and capacity in a traditionally leaner quarter. 

The Air India group has been losing market share since the mega-merger. In September last year, when the Tata group operated three airlines, Air India, Vistara, and Air India Express, its combined market share stood at 29.2 per cent. This was a whisker away from the 30 per cent target it has set for itself. With the merger now complete, the group recorded a reduced market share of 26.5 per cent in May which slightly recovered to 27.1 per cent in June.

Not only has the airline cornered more market share and marginally higher load factors, data released by the DIrectorate General of Civil Aviation shows that it has also managed to sell seats in the highest fare bracket on some of its sectors which include metro sectors like Delhi-Bengaluru, Mumbai-Bengaluru, and Mumbai-Kolkata, among others.

Growth impacted

The first three months of 2025 saw a growth in domestic passenger numbers by 11 per cent, 11 per cent and 8 per cent respectively from January to March. In April, the growth was 8 per cent, while in May it was 1.8 per cent. June has seen a growth of 3 per cent. In all probability, the July numbers will see a negative growth as compared to last year or just about be at the same levels. Airlines have already scaled down flights in July, and the hope for a mega traffic spike is for the 15th August weekend.

Air India has been in the news over the last week for incidents involving its planes, which included an APU fire and runway excursion. How much of an impact does it have on the booking curve for passengers is premature to estimate. The online expressions to avoid Air India clearly have not materialised, going by the numbers released by the regulator