Toprak Razgatlioglu enters this weekend’s (10–12 October) Estoril WorldSBK with a mathematical shot at the title, but how can he confirm himself as a three-time World Superbike Champion before the final round in Jerez?

The scenario facing Razgatlioglu and Nicolo Bulega is in fact incredibly similar to that which they were involved in at last year’s Estoril Round, in that Razgatlioglu cannot mathematically be champion before Race 2.

There are currently 124 points available and after the Superpole Race in Portugal that will be reduced to 87, but by then Razgatlioglu’s maximum possible margin – i.e. if Bulega doesn’t score in either Race 1 or the Superpole Race and Razgatlioglu wins both – will be 73 points over Bulega.

So, the simplest way to look at the permutations going into Estoril this weekend is that Razgatlioglu must end Race 2 with a gap of at least 62 points over Bulega to be crowned champion for the third time before the Jerez finale.

That means Razgatlioglu needs to gain 36 points over Bulega over the weekend’s three races in order to be crowned champion in Estoril. 

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Of course, the maximum Razgatlioglu could gain in Race 2 is 25 points, meaning he needs to gain at least 11 points across Race 1 and the Superpole Race in order to have a chance to win the title in Race 2.

So, with only 12 points available in the Superpole Race, Razgatlioglu will lose his shot at the title at Estoril if he loses two or more points to Bulega in Race 1.

Therefore, if Bulega finishes inside the top-five in Race 1, Razgatlioglu must beat him in order to maintain a chance to win the title in Race 2, although he would still need to gain enough points on the Italian in the Superpole Race to maintain that chance at the start of the second full-length race of the Estoril weekend.

However, if Bulega finishes outside the top-five in Race 1, Razgatlioglu could finish one place behind him and still have a chance to win the title in Race 2, again with the condition that he would need to gain enough points in the Superpole Race to satisfy the 11-point gain requirement in the first two races of the weekend.

The only way for Razgatlioglu to guarantee himself a shot at the title in Race 2 from Race 1 – meaning without needing to manage points versus Bulega in the Superpole Race – is to out-score Bulega by 23 points in Race 1 to end Saturday in Estoril with a gap over the Italian of 59 points or more. 

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That means Razgatlioglu would have to win Race 1 and Bulega would have to finish 14th or lower.

Whatever happens in Portugal, though, Razgatlioglu cannot win the 2025 World Superbike Championship on Saturday. In Race 1, he can only give himself a chance to clinch the crown on Sunday.