Bowl projections: Alabama becomes SEC frontrunner in College Football Playoff race

Believing in Indiana yet? Saturday’s road win over Oregon — the first in program history for the Hoosiers against a top-five team — should be plenty of proof Curt Cignetti’s team is one of the College Football Playoff frontrunners this season from the Big Ten.

Indiana’s potential seed is enhanced several spots in our updated playoff bracket projection after Week 7, along with Alabama as the new SEC favorite following its win at previously unbeaten Missouri. The Crimson Tide have now beaten three straight top 25 teams under Kalen DeBoer, something Nick Saban only did once during his illustrious tenure at the program.

USC, meanwhile, makes its debut in the playoff bracket following its victory over Michigan. The Trojans are making a move under Lincoln Riley and pushed into the mix following shake up within the SEC. Previously unbeaten Oklahoma, facing the nation’s toughest slate, suffered an uppercut blow against Texas and still has a bevy of elite competition left.

College Football Playoff Quarterfinals DateGame / LocationProjection

Jan. 1 

Orange Bowl
Miami, Fla.

(1) Miami vs. (8/9) Winner

Jan. 1 

Rose Bowl
Pasadena, Calif. 

(2) Ohio State vs. (7/10) Winner

Jan. 1 

Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, La. 

(3) Alabama vs. (6/11) Winner

Dec. 31 

Cotton Bowl
Arlington, Texas

(4) Texas Tech vs. (5/12) Winner

First roundDate LocationProjectionWinner faces

Dec. 19 or 20

Kyle Field
College Station, Texas

(8) Texas A&M vs. (9) USC
(1) Miami

Dec. 19 or 20

Autzen Stadium
Eugene, Ore.

(7) Oregon vs. (10) Georgia
(2) Ohio State

Dec. 19 or 20

Vaught-Heminway Stadium
Oxford, Miss..

(6) Ole Miss vs. (11) Georgia Tech
(3) Alabama

Dec. 19 or 20

Memorial Stadium
Bloomington, Ind.

(5) Indiana vs. (12) South Florida
(4) Texas Tech

Don’t see your team? Check out Brad Crawford’s complete bowl projections.

Projected College Football Playoff Field breakdown

1. Miami (projected ACC champion): Tied with Alabama for tops in the country with three wins over ranked opponents, that might be it for the Hurricanes until the ACC Championship Game if they win out. Miami hosts Louisville next Friday, one of its toughest remaining contests during conference play.

2. Ohio State (projected Big Ten champion): The Buckeyes allowed their first rushing touchdown of the season, but largely stellar play in all three phases resulted in a ranked win over the Illini. After Penn State’s fall from the top 25, the only ranked opponent left on the slate for Ohio State is Michigan in the regular-season finale. Like Miami, the schedule’s opening up for further dominance.

3. Alabama (projected SEC champion): A completely different team than they were six weeks ago following a loss at Florida State, the Crimson Tide are humming under Kalen DeBoer with three straight top 25 wins in SEC play. The schedule remains treacherous, but if Ty Simpson continues his hot play and Alabama’s defense continues to come up big late in games, this group has a chance to get to the league title game — and win.

4. Texas Tech (projected Big 12 champion): The Red Raiders raced out to a three-touchdown lead in the first half against Kansas before needing to put the clamps on after intermission to stay unbeaten as the Big 12’s lead playoff threat. With Oregon’s loss to Indiana, Texas Tech moves into first-round bye status this week.

5. Indiana: After trouncing Oregon on the road and “breaking the Ducks’ will” on the defensive side of the football late, as Curt Cignetti said, the Hoosiers will be an overwhelming favorite to finish unbeaten the rest of the way en route to likely facing Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. With two wins over top 10 teams this season, the Hoosiers’ current resume is as good as any in the country.

6. Ole Miss: Following a scare against Washington State, the Rebels’ season will be effectively decided over their next two games at Georgia and Oklahoma unless Lane Kiffin’s team stubs their toe against unranked foes in November. At worst, it looks like Ole Miss will finish with 10 wins, which should be good enough for a first-round home game depending on how other Power leagues shake out.

7. Oregon: Losing to Indiana wasn’t part of the plan in the Ducks’ quest to get back to the Big Ten Championship Game, and they’re going to need immense help to get there even by winning out. What’s more likely is a home game at Autzen Stadium in December as long as Oregon rebounds from here. The win at Penn State weakens with every passing week, and there’s a chance the Ducks’ full body of work will not look as sexy as some multi-loss SEC teams given the schedule. As it stands, Oregon’s wins this season are against teams with a combined record of 2-14 against power competition.

8. Texas A&M: Six games, six wins for the Aggies, including three straight in SEC play. Trips to LSU and Missouri are the only games left against teams currently ranked inside the top 25 for Texas A&M, but that could change after the Longhorns’ win over Oklahoma.

9. USC: A 10-win season coming for Lincoln Riley before his first playoff appearance with the Trojans? That’s coming into focus after a momentum-building win over Michigan sets up next week’s showdown at Notre Dame. A win in South Bend and it won’t matter what USC does at Oregon in November if they avoid other blemishes. If USC beats the Fighting Irish and handle the Ducks later, playoff bracket chaos will ensue.

10. Georgia: The Bulldogs holding off Auburn at Jordan-Hare was a survive-and-advance-type win for Kirby Smart, who’s team nearly suffered their second SEC loss. Georgia moves back a couple spots this week but still controls its own destiny in the conference race despite its early setback against Alabama.

11. Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets will try and stay upset-proof the remainder of the season as one of the ACC’s remaining unbeatens in conference play. The game at Duke in a couple of weeks is the biggest left on the slate for both teams.

12. South Florida (projected Group of Five champion): Five total touchdowns from quarterback Byrum Brown and 42 second-half points paced the Bulls to a decisive 63-36 Friday night win over previously-uneaten North Texas in pivotal showdown at the top of the American. USF still has to play Memphis and Navy, but has the upperhand in the Group of Five race given its schedule as likely one of only ranked teams coming out of Week 7.