My Week 6 picks went 15-15 overall and included correct cover picks for Carolina, Cincinnati, Atlanta and the New York Giants. Here are my Week 7 picks.
I’m giving two picks for each game: One is which team I predict to win outright, the other is which team I predict will cover the point spread. Each pick has a confidence level of 1-10, with 10 being the most confident. For more information on the pick methodology, check out the Week 1 edition of this series.
Keep in mind that since the idea here is to make high-percentage plays, my picks tend to lean chalk-heavy. I am also very judicious in giving out higher confidence level scores.
If you want to see my confidence picks ranked 1-15 (pick to win), scroll to the table at the bottom.
Here is how my Week 6 picks fared, along with my current season record.
Overall picks to win: 7-8 in Week 6 (60-32-1 for the season)
Picks to win with 1-5 confidence: 3-8 (37-26-1)
Picks to win with 6-10 confidence: 4-0 (23-6)
Overall to cover the spread: 8-7 (46-44-3)
Cover the spread picks with 1-5 confidence: 8-5 (40-36-2)
Cover the spread picks with 6-10 confidence: 0-2 (6-8-1)
Now let’s get into the Week 7 selections.
All odds referenced are courtesy of BetMGM as of publish time.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
It’s tough to find an area where the Bengals are superior to the Steelers. Pittsburgh may have the best rush defense in the NFL; it has superb pass blocking and pass rushing. The Steelers also have momentum in this series. They have won three of the past four games against the Bengals and three straight games in Cincinnati. The biggest negative is that this is a Thursday night road game for Pittsburgh. But all that does is lower my confidence level a bit.
Pick to win: Pittsburgh (Confidence level: 7)
Pick to cover the spread: Pittsburgh (Confidence level: 6)
Los Angeles Rams (-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (in London)
The big question for Los Angeles is what its offense looks like if Puka Nacua misses this game due to his ankle injury. Davante Adams can take up some of that production slack. These teams will be mostly evenly matched if Brian Thomas Jr. can equal Adams’ production. The wild card is pass rush. Los Angeles has strong numbers here, while Jacksonville has only four sacks in the past four games. That’s enough for me to take the Rams for the win. I’ll take Jacksonville for the cover.
Pick to win: Los Angeles (CL: 2)
Pick to cover: Jacksonville (CL: 2)
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-12)
Patrick Mahomes has skyrocketed back to being the NFL MVP odds leader. Those odds could go even more in his favor with Rashee Rice returning to the Chiefs’ lineup. Kansas City has major stat advantages in pass blocking, rush defense and pass coverage. That should lead to another interception-filled day for Geno Smith. The Raiders will also be without Brock Bowers for this game. I’ll take the Chiefs for both the outright win and cover.
Pick to win: Kansas City (CL: 9)
Pick to cover: Kansas City (CL: 6)
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (-5.5)
The Bears don’t have great special teams numbers, but their figures are much better than the Saints. New Orleans rates last in special teams EPA since Week 3 by a wide margin. The Bears have a more dangerous passing game even if DJ Moore can’t return from his Week 6 groin injury. Chicago also has better pass coverage and is the home team. It’s enough for me to pick the Bears for the win and a very close cover.
Pick to win: Chicago (CL: 4)
Pick to cover: Chicago (CL: 1)
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-3)
This is one of the toughest games on the Week 7 board. Miami has what should be a superior offense, but the Dolphins are also dealing with what looks like more infighting between players and coaches. That’s not a good trend when going on the road to face a talented Cleveland defense that is better than its numbers suggest. Those nullify each other. There isn’t a nullifying element for the Browns’ offensive ineptitude. As bad as Miami can be, they have a lot more offensive talent. I’m picking the Dolphins in a road upset.
Pick to win: Miami (CL: 3)
Pick to cover: Miami (CL: 5)
New England Patriots (-7) at Tennessee Titans
Mike Vrabel couldn’t have asked for more favorable circumstances to get a revenge win in his former employer’s home stadium. The Patriots have a long-shot NFL MVP contender in Drake Maye and a huge edge in rush defense. Tennessee just fired head coach Brian Callahan, and his father, Bill, the Titans’ offensive line coach, left as well. That’s just the latest instance in what is being termed a “den of dysfunction” in Tennessee. I’ll take the Patriots to win by a double-digit margin.
Pick to win: New England (CL: 9)
Pick to cover: New England (CL: 7)
Philadelphia Eagles (-2) at Minnesota Vikings
The Eagles have a lot of offensive issues, not the least of which is Saquon Barkley’s tackle-breaking rate dropping by 40 percent from last year. Philadelphia has been responding to this of late by throwing the ball more. That’s not what you want to do against an aggressive and creative Brian Flores defense. The Eagles’ defense has played well below its 2024 level and can’t rush the passer. That should give the Vikings enough offensive production to justify selecting them for an upset win.
Pick to win: Minnesota (CL: 3)
Pick to cover: Minnesota (CL: 4)
Carolina Panthers (-1.5) at New York Jets
It’s a bit mystifying why the Panthers are only a 1.5-point favorite for this matchup. Dave Canales’ squad is a well-coached and motivated team that has fought hard all year long. The Panthers have a superb RB duo in Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard. Carolina is getting efficient play from Bryce Young. New York has abysmal pass-rush and pass-blocking numbers. The Jets also had some highly questionable play-calling in the Week 6 loss to Denver. It is a road trip for Carolina, but all that does is slightly lower my confidence level in the Panthers to win and cover.
Pick to win: Carolina (CL: 6)
Pick to cover: Carolina (CL: 5)
New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-7)
The Cam Skattebo and Jaxson Dart experience has been very entertaining of late. That entertainment level is all but certain to decline this week. Denver may have the best rush defense and pass rush in the NFL. However, the Broncos may be a bit worn from having to travel back from London this week, while the Giants had extra downtime playing at home on Thursday night in Week 6. Those latter factors keep this from being an overwhelming pick for the Broncos. I’ll still take Denver by a solid margin.
Pick to win: Denver (CL: 5)
Pick to cover: Denver (CL: 3)
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
When a game is as evenly matched as this one, I’ll usually look for which team has the most paths to victory. The Colts have scored 29 or more points in five of their six games. Indianapolis has also generated at least one takeaway in every game and has zero giveaways in four games. The Chargers have scored 29 points only once, and they have given the ball away at least one time in five games. Those paths point toward an Indianapolis upset win and cover.
Pick to win: Indianapolis (CL: 3)
Pick to cover: Indianapolis (CL: 4)
Washington Commanders (-2) at Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys head coach Brian Schottenheimer doesn’t want his team to get into scoreboard shootouts (games where both team score at least 24 points). Unfortunately, the Dallas defense is so bad that Schottenheimer has no choice but to go that route. The good news for the Cowboys is that they are 1-1-1 in scoreboard shootouts this year. Washington doesn’t fare well in those. The Commanders are 1-2 in shootouts. Add Dallas likely getting CeeDee Lamb back, and this being at home, and I’ll pick the Cowboys to win and cover.
Pick to win: Dallas (CL: 2)
Pick to cover: Dallas (CL: 3)
Green Bay Packers (-6.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Arizona’s offense is very banged up right now. The Cardinals are down to a third-string running back, they may not have Marvin Harrison for this game and Kyler Murray could also miss due to a foot sprain. The Packers are a much healthier team and rate better in multiple categories even before factoring for injuries. I’ll take Green Bay to win and cover.
Pick to win: Green Bay (CL: 5)
Pick to cover: Green Bay (CL: 3)
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-2)
The Falcons’ Monday night performance against Buffalo showed the world just how talented this team is. Bijan Robinson might be the best running back in the NFL. What really stands out statistically is the 49ers’ atrocious pass-rush metrics. Atlanta has a strong pass rush and thus a big edge there, but these teams are even in just about every other area. This is a cross-country road trip for Atlanta. The 49ers may have Brock Purdy and George Kittle back for this contest. It’s a combination that makes for a very difficult pick. I’ll split the difference and pick San Francisco to win but Atlanta to cover.
Pick to win: San Francisco (CL: 1)
Pick to cover: Atlanta (CL: 1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-5.5)
At publish time, it looks like the Buccaneers could be without Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka and Bucky Irving for this game. The Lions have their own woes in their defensive secondary. Cornerback Terrion Arnold and free safety Avonte Maddox are dealing with ailments. Detroit also won’t have strong safety Brian Branch due to his suspension. Those missing players may allow Baker Mayfield to keep up to some extent, but the Lions still have a lot more offensive firepower than the Buccaneers. I’ll take Detroit for a high-scoring win and cover.
Pick to win: Detroit (CL: 5)
Pick to cover: Detroit (CL: 4)
Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
Seattle’s slew of secondary injuries allowed Tampa Bay to rack up 35 points against them in Week 5. Mike Macdonald’s squad had the same injuries in Week 6 against Jacksonville, yet found a way to limit the Jaguars to only 12 points. This strongly suggests that Macdonald’s creative play-calling has found a way around those injuries. With this game being in Seattle and Houston’s offense being hit-or-miss this season, I’ll take the Seahawks to win and cover.
Pick to win: Seattle (CL: 4)
Pick to cover: Seattle (CL: 2)