Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Update: ANZ has cut most of its fixed rates, effective Friday, October 17, 2025. Earlier, Kookmin Bank, HBS (Heretaunga Building Society) and Liberty Financial all reduced mortgage rates as did Xceda. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
All Kiwi Bond interest rates were cut by -50 bps today, making these risk-free savings bonds underwater for ‘real’ returns. Xceda and HBS cut rates too. And Heartland cut all its savings account rates today, including for their two notice saver products. Westpac cut its 8-month TD rate by -15 bps to 3.50%. Update: ANZ cut all its TD rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

INFLATION SAGGING FINALLY?
There was a surprise large monthly drop in food prices in September and that may lead to lower a September CPI figure than expected. Statistics NZ’s Selected Price Indexes show that food prices dropped -0.4% in September, lowering the annual increase to +4.1% – down from +5.0% the previous month. And its not just food. The same data release shows rents had their lowest annual increase since 2011. The Q3-2025 CPI will be released on Monday.

RATE CUT CYCLE NEARS ITS END
Inflation expectations remain high, however, and those expectations are a barrier to more RBNZ rate cuts. Financial markets are now starting to price OCR increases later in 2026. These expectations worry the RBNZ. High inflation and/or rising expectations that come with any pickup in economic activity will heighten those worries.

NO MORE COST PRESSURE
Meanwhile, residential building costs are increasing at just a +2% rate annually, half the long-term average. The rise in Q3-2025 from the June quarter was at an even slower pace.

SOCIAL BENEFIT NEEDS REMAIN VERY HIGH
According to data released today by MSD, there are now more than 410,000 people on the main adult benefits, a new record high and up +4.8% from this time last year. Those on Jobseeker benefits are up +6.4% to 217,800 and also a record high. But those on solo parent benefits are up +3.3% but well below the 2011 record high. Those on supported living payments were another record at just under 107,000.

NZX50 FIRMS SLIGHTLY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.2% in its Thursday session so far. That puts it -1.9% lower over the past five working days. It is up +1.9% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +3.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.2 today so far. There were gains by Infratil, Stride Property, Kathmandu, and Argosy while Channel Infrastructure, Port of Tauranga, Vista Group, and EBOS are the main decliners.

TRYING TO BE MORE PRICE-COMPETITIVE
Regular readers will know that we track standard online car insurance quotes for five major insurance brands (for the most popular new car and used import, in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch). That indicates that the two big AIG brands (State and AMI) have trimmed their premiums slightly in the past week, which gives them a larger cost advantage over the other three in our sample.

A NEW BIG WINNERS, HAPPY FOR LOWER YIELDS
There were 112 bids today in the three NZGB bond tenders for $450 mln. Those bids totaled almost $1.9 bln. Only 5 bidders won anything in the May 2032 tranche, 13 bidders won something in the May 2035 tranche, and only one bidder took it all in the May 2054 offering. In all cases the winning investors were prepared to push down yields from the prior equivalent events.

A $25 MLN TOP-UP
Better seasonal trading conditions by Alliance Meats has boosted the price Dawn Meats will pay if the acquisition is approved at the Monday AGM, making it a $270 mln transaction*. Interestingly in the debate about the wisdom of this proposed change of ownership, there seems little discussion about the embedded industry overcapacity and how that will be resolved. No-one seems to have a plan other than ‘the other guy’ needs to do it. No matter what happens on Monday, neither option tackles this much more fundamental problem. (*Its a NZD transaction and the fall in the NZD means Dawn Meats will likely be paying the same in EUR.)

COOLING OFF
In Australia, their jobless rate ticked higher to 4.5% and their jobs growth, especially full-time jobs growth, came in lower than expected in September.

JAPANESE MACHINERY ORDERS DISAPPOINT
In Japan, core machinery orders, excluding the large volatile sectors, fell -0.9% in August from July to ¥8.9 tln but it was an improvement from the sharp -4.6% drop in July. Analysts had expected a small gain.

SWAP RATES DIP
Wholesale swap rates are will likely be lower today across the board, reacting to the early inflation signals. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged on Wednesday at 2.55%. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps from yesterday at 4.17%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.76%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -6 bps at 4.02%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Wednesday’s rate down -5 bps to 4.04%. The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp at 4.03%.

EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is now unchanged in Thursday trade so far. But the ASX200 is up +1.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down up +0.8%. Hong Kong is up +0.3% at its open. Shanghai is up +0.1% from yesterday. Singapore is down -0.3% at its open. Wall Street ended its Wednesday session with a +0.4% gain for the day.

OIL HOLDS LOW
The oil price in the US is little-changed at just over US$58.50/bbl and the international Brent price is still just under US$62.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have only been a small handful of tiny trades today and the price has held at $56/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD RISES TO NEW HIGH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$48 from yesterday at this time, now at US$4228/oz and a new high.

BETTER THAN GOLD
But lets put that gold price rise into perspective. From the start of 2025, gold is up +60% in USD terms, up +52% in NZD terms. But the Fonterra FSF share price is up +63% in the same timeframe.

NZD TURNS UP
The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from yesterday, now at 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +50 bps at 88.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up +30 bps at just under 62.1.

BITCOIN DIPS AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$111,363 and down another -0.6% from this time this time yesterday. Volatility has again been modest, just on +/- 1.4%.

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