The UK market to the US is projected to continue to grow next year despite concerns around affordability and the perception of the country as a welcoming destination.
Analyst Oxford Economics said the UK was among the European markets currently bucking an overall downturn in outbound travel to the US and predicted ongoing growth in 2026.
Data presented by Oxford Economics subsidiary Tourism Economics at Brand USA’s Travel Week event in London suggested the overall inbound market to the US would be 6.3% down in 2025, compared to 2024. This is a 2.4 percentage point improvement on an earlier projection of an 8.7% downturn this year.
A bounce back of 3.7% is predicted for 2026, with overall numbers expected to return to 2024 levels in 2027.
Reasons for caution among travellers include affordability and the political climate, including the impact of the Trump administration’s trade policies.
Official data from the US Department of Commerce shows air arrivals from the UK were up 2.1% year on year at the end of August at 2,644,598. However, some trade experts say forward bookings indicate a downturn, with USAirtours chief executive Guy Novik estimating before the summer that the market could be as much as 8% down in 2026.
Oxford Economics director Martina Bozadzhieva told the event a recovery was expected to the US from all major European source markets in 2026, including from Germany and France, which are down 10% and 8% respectively this year.
However, she said the recovery would come at different paces dependent on market, and pointed to opportunities in markets including the UK, Spain and Italy where growth has continued in 2025.
Bozadzhieva added: “Is [the overall decline in 2025] a structural change and have we seen a permanent shift? Our short answer is ‘no’.”
Earlier this year, New York tourism chiefs downgraded a forecast from the UK market for 2025 from 1.19 million to 1.01 million.
That projection was upgraded slightly to 1.03 million in August following revisions to the Tourism Economics outlook. However, that would still equate to a year-on-year decline from 2024’s 1.06 million.