Welcome to Michael Kramer’s pick of the key market events to look out for in the week beginning Monday 27 October. 

The biggest week of earnings season is upon us, with results due from Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta. These five companies together account for around 45% of the NASDAQ 100’s total market capitalisation weighting, and nearly 25% of the S&P 500’s total market capitalisation. These tech giants are likely to help determine how the US stock indices perform for the rest of the year. 

While most of the attention will be on earnings, traders should keep a close eye on a trio of important central bank meetings this week, from the US Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and European Central Bank.

Fed, BoJ, ECB meetings

Wednesday 29 October 

The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are predicted to remain on hold. However, the key focus of the BoJ meeting will be on any discussion or hint of a rate hike in December. Although the odds of a December rate increase remain low, the election of a new prime minister and the easing of trade tensions suggest that the opportunity for a move could be approaching. 

The ECB, meanwhile, is not expected to make any changes, but the market will be looking to determine whether the central bank is truly finished with its rate-cutting cycle. The euro remains more vulnerable to further weakness against the US dollar than the yen. The EUR/USD pair is currently sitting right on support at $1.161. If the ECB manages to convincingly signal that it has completed its rate cuts, the euro may rebound and potentially start to rise. However, if the bank’s messaging proves unconvincing, it could lead to the euro breaking support, with a possible move towards $1.14. 

EUR/USD chart, April-23 October 2025Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer

Wednesday 29 October 

The NASDAQ-listed social media company is forecast to report a 10.8% increase in earnings to $6.68 per share in the third quarter, while revenue is projected to rise by 21.6% to $49.4bn. Capital expenditure (capex) is expected to more than double to $19.8bn, up from $8.3bn a year earlier. For Q4, analysts anticipate earnings growth of less than 1%, to $8.09 per share, with revenue projected to increase by 18.1% to $57.1bn, while capex is forecast to surge by 68.6% to $24.3bn. 

The stock is expected to move by around 7% following the earnings release. Options positioning appears very bullish, and based on past experience, when it becomes excessively bullish, shares often move lower after results, as implied volatility resets and market makers’ hedging activity unwinds. 

Meta may have formed a double-top pattern, with the neckline situated between $715 and $736. At present, the stock is trading near the upper end of that range, around $736, suggesting that exceptionally strong earnings and favourable guidance might be required to propel it meaningfully above $750. Additionally, Meta’s relative strength index (RSI) has been trending lower, signalling a potential bearish divergence. A break below $712 would confirm the double-top formation and a break of the neckline, potentially paving the way for a decline towards the $675–$650 range. 

Meta Platforms share price, March-23 October 2025Sources: TradingView, Michael KramerMicrosoft Q1 results

Wednesday 29 October 

First-quarter earnings for the NASDAQ-listed software company are expected to rise by 10.5% to $3.67 per share, while revenue is projected to increase by 14.7% to $75.3bn. Capex is anticipated to climb by 48.7% to $22.2bn, reflecting continued investment in cloud infrastructure and AI capacity. For the fiscal second quarter, analysts expect the company to guide for revenue growth of 14.8% to $79.9bn. Capex is forecast to rise by 38.4% to $21.86bn, indicating sustained high levels of spending tied to Azure and AI-related initiatives. 

The stock is expected to move by around 4.3% following the results. Options positioning appears mixed, with support around $510 and resistance near $550. The technical charts show that the shares have traded largely sideways since the company last reported results in July, with little directional momentum. Based on the implied post-earnings move, the stock may remain in this trading range even after the results. 

Please note: Michael Kramer and clients of Mott Capital own stock in MSFT. 

Microsoft share price, June-23 October 2025Sources: TradingView, Michael KramerEconomic and company events calendar

Major upcoming economic announcements and scheduled US and UK company reports include:

Monday 27 October

US: Durable goods (Sep), 2-year, 5-year treasury note auctions 
Results: Cadence Design Systems (Q3)

Tuesday 28 October

UK: BRC shop price index (Oct)
US: Consumer confidence (Oct), Richmond Fed manufacturing index (Oct), S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices (Aug) 
Results: HSBC Holdings (Q3), United HealthGroup (Q3), Visa (Q4)

Wednesday 29 October

Australia: Consumer price index (Q3)
Canada: Bank of Canada interest-rate decision, monetary policy report & press conference 
UK: M4 money supply (Sep)
US: Pending home sales (Sep), US Federal Reserve interest-rate decision, monetary policy statement & press conference 
Results: Alphabet (Q3), Boeing (Q3), Caterpillar (Q3), GSK (Q3), Meta Platforms (Q3), Microsoft (Q1), ServiceNow (Q3), Verizon Communications (Q3)

 

Thursday 30 October

Japan: Bank of Japan interest-rate decision, monetary policy statement & press conference
Eurozone: Business climate (Oct), consumer confidence (Oct), GDP (Q3), unemployment rate (Sep), European Central Bank main refinancing interest-rate decision, monetary policy statement & press conference
US: GDP (Q3) 
Results: Amazon (Q3), Apple (Q4), Eli Lilly (Q3), Mastercard (Q3), Merck (Q3), Shell (Q3), Standard Chartered (Q3)

Friday 31 October

Eurozone: Consumer price index (Oct)
US: Core PCE price index (Sep), personal income (Sep), personal spending (Sep), Chicago PMI (Oct)
Results: Abbvie (Q3), Chevron (Q3), Exxon Mobil (Q3), Linde (Q3)

Note: While we check all dates carefully to ensure that they are correct at the time of writing, the above announcements are subject to change.

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