What a lousy weekend of football. The Sunday before Halloween, the famous “Witching Hour” — where a cascade of games typically hang in the balance — appeared lost to Daylight Savings Time a week early.
We had two games all day that were within seven points at any point in the second half. And one of them — Bears at Ravens — was a brutal slog. That’s like going trick-or-treating and coming home only with stale candy corn. Worse, we lost more players. Cam Skattebo’s season is over. Quinshon Judkins has a shoulder injury of unknown severity, but it sidelined him for the rest of what was then a competitive game. Joe Flacco hurt his shoulder the one time he got hit all game and his status is up in the air, which could have a major impact on Cincy skill players. So, mostly tricks, not many treats.
Let’s start in Cincinnati with the only game that was worth watching. The Bengals, who were so close to getting into the mix at least in the AFC North, are now back to square one. They let the Jets, who looked like an iffy bet to score 23 points the rest of the season, score that many in the fourth quarter alone. New York had 502 yards, or 420 more than the offense managed two weeks ago. What does it mean going forward? Probably nothing.
Look, I hate that Justin Fields, who seems like a good person, was so crushed by the criticism of his play. I criticized him, but that’s the consequence of stepping into the public arena. Personally, I always want to be wrong when the data says a player is not good. I root for good players, especially at the QB position, because that makes the game we love so much more entertaining. But is Fields going to go right back to holding the ball forever, taking sacks and not accepting that the perfect interception rate in the NFL is not 0.0%? Probably. Almost certainly. He’s done this for five years and three different teams, after all.
Is Breece Hall a factor back now? It’s possible, but unlikely. The Jets are probably still a bottom-five offense. Maybe the offensive line is good, but we have to see it again against better competition than the Bengals without Trey Hendrickson (hip).
Flacco only threw for 45 yards in the second half. That was mostly because the Bengals were running it down the Jets’ throats (Flacco got hurt late). But he was not taking many shots downfield and this is the Jets defense. And now he’s hurt with an injury to his throwing shoulder.
James Cook ran for a career-high 216 yards and two touchdowns against the Panthers.
Late Games: Taylor’s insane hot streak; Dak, Dallas receivers disappoint in Denver
Tennessee at Indianapolis: Jonathan Taylor is just insane, with four games of three TDs already. The record is five. The argument against Taylor was he’s injury-prone, I guess. But the lesson is peak age players with no chronic injury are not greater injury risks (or lesser ones) than anyone else in a similar situation. No runner is more talented than Taylor, perhaps no runner this century. Adrian Peterson? Maybe, but he was sidelined a lot, too. Taylor is also better than Peterson ever was in the passing game (damning with faint praise, I know).
Daniel Jones has been sacked nine times all year, which used to be some weeks for him. He has seven games with at least a 101 passer rating — the Colts are 7-0 in those games. He landed in a perfect situation, but he’s a part of it. I can’t see it changing this year with this supporting cast. Jones entered the season with a career 8.5% sack rate. For comparison, Fields’ is 12.1% — not the same universe, actually. I did think Michael Pittman would have the best chemistry with Jones and they connected on their sixth TD strike of the season. Pittman is a high-end WR2 right now as he’s mainly a red zone guy.
Dallas at Denver: This was a very disappointing day for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense, given defensive back Patrick Surtain missed time with various injuries. They were flummoxed all day and could not hold up in pass protection. As always, when that happens, it’s “Misery.” It was a weird day for the Denver offense. Bo Nix threw four TDs, two to Troy Franklin, but I can’t say I’m excited. Ditto for rookie RJ Harvey (three touchdowns), who probably did not earn more of a market share going forward given J.K. Dobbins had 111 yards on 15 carries. Back out his first-quarter 40-yard TD run and Harvey had six yards on six attempts.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans: Baker Mayfield has thrown for 233 yards or less in most of his games. He has one TD pass in his past two games (74 attempts). Emeka Egbuka hasn’t been the same player since his hamstring injury. He’s playing through it, so it’s going to look like he just hit a wall or the league figured him out. It’s not that, though. There’s nothing to say about the Saints offense. They need to get the No. 1 pick and grab whoever they think the top QB is, though this year has been described as the “Tank for Blank,” since there is no consensus.
Early Games: TreVeyon turns heads; Barkley and Cook bust out
Miami at Atlanta: I want to nominate Kirk Cousins for Treasury Secretary. The dude has made $322 million in his career and $27.5 million this year. Why? How? This is to be the most maximum return relative to performance and all reason in sports history. One thing that Cousins can’t be anymore is an NFL QB. I’m more interested in the Falcons having already lost their first-round pick — now in the top 15 — in a trade up last year from the second round to pick an edge rusher who was projected to be a second-rounder and who has 0.5 sacks. This is classic false consensus bias. We do the same thing every time we draft someone way over ADP because, of course, everyone is thinking exactly like us since we’re so obviously right! Like Fields, Tua Tagovailoa was another notable “Return of the Living Dead,” throwing for four touchdowns. I’m skeptical this is predictive of anything. Jaylen Waddle has to be played every week though.
New England at Cleveland: This day should change the paradigm for TreVeyon Henderson, who won the battle of the Ohio State RBs. Henderson seems to have been “Re-Animated.” But who knows? Mike Vrabel is more mad scientist with his backs than Dr. Herbert West was with his corpses. This was a great day for Drake Maye and the entire Patriots offense. Sure, Myles Garrett had five sacks, but the guy wears the red cape not just on Halloween, but every Sunday. I’ll talk about Mack Hollins (7 catches, 89 receiving yards) in Tuesday’s “Market Share Report.”
NY Giants at Philadelphia: It was bound to happen with Saquon Barkley. I said last week regression was bound to be a positive at some point this season for Barkley and it sure was in Week 8 — 14 carries for 150 yards, including a long TD (his first run of over 20 yards) and another TD receiving. But then he injured his groin (the Eagles are off next week). It was a rough day, but not a disaster for Jaxson Dart (sacked five times in 29 pass plays). The Cam Skattebo ankle injury was gruesome, but not expected to be career-altering, though he’s out for the year, obviously.
Buffalo at Carolina: The Bills played angry and James Cook looked like he wanted to break all-time records, though he settled for “only” 216 yards on his 19 totes (none in the fourth quarter). Andy Dalton was sacked seven times on 31 pass plays. This game is yet another data point in the case for Rico Dowdle being better than Chuba Hubbard despite the imbalance of touches in Hubbard’s favor.
Chicago at Baltimore: DJ Moore’s production (4 catches, 73 receiving yards) came mostly in garbage time, but Rome Odunze gave his managers reason to have some hope. But remember, this is a Ravens defense that’s been terrible. Sure, they were healthier, but still. And what was the excuse for the Bears defense? It allowed 6.0 per play and 24 first downs to Tyler Huntley. Derrick Henry found the end zone twice but did not have a carry of more than 10 yards. He’s now more Frankenstein than Wolf Man.
San Francisco at Houston: So much for the Christian McCaffrey rushing resurgence (8 carries, 25 rushing yards). His top speed this year is 17.3 mph, which is more than 3.5 MPH slower than his last healthy year — 17% slower (massive). The catches are great for fantasy but defenses don’t care about stopping RB catches, generally the worst EPA play in football. There isn’t one defense that spends major roster resources on stopping backs from catching passes. The good news is he’ll generally keep doing it, but the meaningful runs from scrimmage will be few and far between. I’m not saying McCaffrey is “The Blob” out there, he just needs manufactured targets and goal-line runs to score. Everything finally worked for a Texans offense that seemed “Dead & Buried.” Did the injuries finally catch up with the 49ers, or did Houston finally find a passing game without Nico Collins even active? What sense does that make?