The Ravens’ mission to defy the odds and make the playoffs despite their brutal 1–5 start to the season is right on schedule.

Behind four touchdown passes from two-time MVP Lamar Jackson in his first game back and 119 rushing yards from Derrick Henry, Baltimore cruised to a 28–6 win over the Dolphins on Thursday night at Hard Rock Stadium.

With their second win in five days, the Ravens improved to 3–5, moving up into a tie for second place in the AFC North with the rival Bengals. Baltimore is now just one win behind the first-place Steelers (4–3), who host the 7–1 Colts on Sunday.

According to NFL.com, the Ravens’ probability to make the playoffs significantly jumped to 60% with the win. Had they lost to Miami, that percentage would have fallen to 37%. The Ravens are now just two wins behind the Chiefs (5–3) for the AFC’s final playoff spot.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, fall to 2–7 while their playoff probability sits at 1%. Had Miami won and improved to 3–6, that number would have slightly risen to 3%.

Following the Ravens’ win Thursday night, here’s how the NFL playoff picture looks heading into the weekend (Note: all playoff odds are provided by NFL.com):

SEED

TEAM

PLAYOFF %

1

Colts (7–1)

95%

2

Patriots (6–2)

86%

3

Broncos (6–2)

79%

4

Steelers (4–3)

50%

5

Bills (5–2)

88%

6

Chargers (5–3)

69%

7

Chiefs (5–3)

82%

8

Jaguars (4–3)

43%

9

Texans (3–4)

40%

10

Bengals (3–5)

6%

11

Ravens (3–5)

60%

12

Raiders (2–5)

2%

13

Browns (2–6)

3%

14

Dolphins (2–7)

1%

15

Jets (1–7)

1%

16

Titans (1–7)

1%

SEED

TEAM

PLAYOFF %

1

Packers (5–1–1)

93%

2

Eagles (6–2)

92%

3

Buccaneers (6–2)

91%

4

Seahawks (5–2)

83%

5

Lions (5–2)

84%

6

Rams (5–2)

91%

7

49ers (5–3)

71%

8

Bears (4–3)

27%

9

Panthers (4–4)

14%

10

Cowboys (3–4–1)

14%

11

Falcons (3–4)

19%

12

Vikings (3–4)

10%

13

Commanders (3–5)

13%

14

Cardinals (2–5)

3%

15

Giants (2–6)

2%

16

Saints (1–7)

1%

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