We’re coming into the weekend hot, fresh off a sweep of our ATS and player prop bets from Thursday night. I’m hitting 66% of my NFL picks, so the goal here is to stay hot. Week 9 is tricky, much like last week, because the lines are out of whack thanks to the public winning and favorites covering easily over the last two weeks. So we’ve got to be careful in these streets, folks.

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Having said that, I still think there’s value in taking some of the bigger favorites on the board. The way the league is set up right now — with a lot of pretty good teams and some real bottom dwellers — we’re not going to see a full-blown flip where underdogs go wild. 

If favorites keep rolling in a big way every week, eventually the spreads will get inflated enough where it might happen. But I don’t think it’s this week, not quite yet. Just beware of laying a ton of chalk all over the place and focus on good teams playing bad teams. 

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Best betsRams -14 vs. Saints

You will rarely find me urging readers to hurry up and bet a team laying a full two touchdowns in an NFL game. But this line could steam up a little bit more as we get close to Sunday, with the Saints starting Tyler Shough against a ridiculously tough Rams defense coming off a bye.

Sean McVay handled the London trip masterfully, going full red-eye after staying over on the east coast and then taking the bye before a perfect home matchup against a bad football team that might be getting worse. 

The Saints were frisky for a hot minute, but they haven’t been able to do much against good defenses on the road. Now they get a well-rested Rams team looking to make a push with Puka Nacua likely coming back. 

We might be staring down another Matthew Stafford smash spot — or the Rams could be up by such a margin at halftime that they park the bus and just feed Kyren Williams and Blake Corum.  

Bills +1.5 vs. Chiefs

This game reminds me of a quote from “Fletch” (shoutout to Kirk Herbstreit for using it on Thursday and putting it in my head): “It’s all ball bearings these days, fellas.” 

I will watch “Fletch” anytime it’s on, day or night, and you know what else I will do anytime day or night? Bet on Josh Allen as a home dog, regardless of who he’s playing. “It’s all so simple!” 

The Chiefs are white hot, so it’s not that easy. If Kansas City rolled into Buffalo, beat up a banged up Bills defense and snuck out with a win, I wouldn’t flinch. But they won’t blow out the Bills. 

Allen will have his chances late on Sunday and we just have to hope he’s got the ball in his hands last. This is an automatic play for me. 

Packers -13.5 vs. Panthers

The Panthers were very hot, right up until they weren’t. And after getting torched by the Bills at home, they get rewarded by having to go on the road and play the Packers, who might be heating up at the right time. 

Green Bay’s defense getting to go up against Bryce Young, who is playing two weeks after suffering a high-ankle sprain, doesn’t sound like a great recipe for success for Carolina’s offense — particularly since they’re going on the road and are short-handed on the offensive line.

The Packers should be able to throw and run on Carolina (turns out, not so great at stopping the run against good teams). If Green Bay gets a lead, it will salt the entire second half away and let Micah Parsons tee off on Young.  

I get not playing Andy Dalton with a broken thumb after what he showed last week and Young is an upgrade, but, man, this is a bad matchup for Carolina. Good luck coming through the back door! 

Lions -8.5 vs. Vikings

The Lions have been a public side all season and I expect them to be again here. I’m not sure it matters. Detroit at home is a different beast and this is a really bad setup for the Vikings. 

Minnesota’s run defense isn’t nearly as good as it was a year ago and the Lions can RUN, even if their offensive line isn’t perfect. Jared Goff has a very good record against Brian Flores defenses, mainly because his protection holds up and the Lions have a plethora of weapons to hit deep or underneath when the pressure comes.

On the other side, the Vikings appear to have been hiding J.J. McCarthy but were compelled to play him this week with Carson Wentz done for the season. Detroit’s getting multiple starters in the secondary back and the defense looked elite two weeks ago with Alim McNeil back and the secondary playing hard for Brian Branch. 

Great teams have been covering post bye quite frequently this year and I think the Lions are the next team to do it.  

Texans -1.5 vs. Broncos

The Broncos run hot and cold on offense but have been cooking against bad defenses when given the opportunity. The Texans are not a bad defense. In fact, they’re a very good defense, definitely elite, maybe best in the NFL. 

Denver should be able to slow down the middling Houston offense, but Nico Collins should be back in this game and Patrick Surtain will be missing. That’s a massive deal for the Broncos in terms of slowing down a No. 1 wide receiver. 

This doesn’t profile as a high-scoring game and a random, ill-timed turnover could flip this for us, but without Surtain and with Nix facing a tough defense, I’m more than willing to back an underrated Texans team with a short number at home as they gun for a playoff spot. 

Week 7 NFL player props Ja’Marr Chase Over 90.5 receiving yards

We’ve got a monster total (51) in a game where neither defense should be able to prevent the big play. And we have an elite receiver who should get peppered by either Joe Flacco or Jake Browning, regardless of who starts. 

The Bears secondary — and defense as a whole — is really banged up and the Bengals are at home. The Bears just gave up 63 yards on seven catches to Zay Flowers with Tyler Huntley under center and 98 yards (plus two scores) on five catches to Chris Olave with Spencer Rattler throwing passes. 

Just one week prior, the Bears secondary gave up three touchdown passes to the Commanders without Terry McLaurin or Deebo Samuel. 

Point being, Chicago can be gotten and Chase knows this is a must-win game for the Bengals to keep their very slim playoff hopes alive. Explosion game incoming.  

Tyler Warren Over 5.5 receptions

Did you see what Tucker Kraft just did to this Steelers defense? Pittsburgh can be gotten in the secondary pretty easily. In what kind of amounts to a must-win game at home, we’ll see the Steelers show up and compete in this matchup against a Colts defense that can be thrown on. 

Teryl Austin will (or at least, should) throw the kitchen sink at slowing down Jonathan Taylor and saving his job, which means lots of linebackers running downhill and plenty of looks for Warren over the middle. 

He’s only gotten four catches each of the last two weeks, but with the plus money number we’re getting here and the success of big tight ends against this Pittsburgh defense, this is an easy pick. 

Brock Bowers Over 4.5 receptions

Bowers is a little juicy but that’s OK. He’s back and fully healthy for the first time in weeks and has caught five-plus passes in all but one game this year when he was on the field the full game.

The Jaguars have been smoked by tight ends the last few weeks with Devin Lloyd banged up, letting Colby Parkinson, A.J. Barner, Travis Kelce and Jake Tonges all beat them up for pretty good games. 

Bowers is a different beast and the absolute focal point of the Raiders passing offense when he’s healthy. The total isn’t great here but Las Vegas will get him involved now that he’s healthy.

You can parlay Bowers five catches with Warren five catches for a VERY juicy +188 two-man parlay. 

Anytime touchdown scorer propsDavid Montgomery anytime TD

We’re laying a little juice here but that’s perfectly fine — Montgomery should be closer to -150 to score a touchdown against the Vikings. His price is submerged after two mediocre games running the ball behind a Detroit offensive line that isn’t as stout as it was last year.

But those games were against tough run defenses and the Vikings don’t look like a tough run defense this year. Kimani Vidal just shredded them for 120 yards and a score, with the Chargers running for 200+ (the second 200+ game Minnesota’s given up this year). 

With the Lions a big favorite at home in a game with a big total, we should expect ample red-zone carries for Detroit. Jahymr Gibbs gets plenty of goal-line action, but so does Montgomery: both backs are in the top 15 in terms of carries inside the 20- and 10-yard lines. 

This feels like a hammer game from Detroit in terms of letting Montgomery cook.   

Blake Corum anytime TD

As referenced above, the Rams are massive favorites against a bad Saints team. The Rams are coming off a bye so I expect them to come out sharp with the extra week of rest. If Matthew Stafford, Puka Nakua and Kyren Williams get this team out to a big lead, Sean McVay will be more than willing to give Blake Corum second-half carries.

He did just that in London against the Jaguars, with Corum matching Kyren’s 12 carries, including several at the goal line. The Saints have given up a touchdown to a backup running back (Sean Tucker and Kyle Monangai) in each of the last two games in blowouts, making this a very nice price for Corum to find paydirt.   

Bijan Robinson anytime TD

This is purely a value play, because the matchup is not good. Drake London might be out (which reduces the effectiveness of the offense) and it could be Kirk Cousins under center again if Michael Penix can’t go.

New England is excellent against the run and the Falcons are pretty heavy underdogs, meaning they could get down and be forced to throw and abandon the run like they did last week. 

But Robinson was -250 just last week to score, and now he’s a very reasonable -125. Even if the Falcons have to go full pass mode, he’s still got 19 targets in the last three weeks (albeit only three with Cousins), meaning he’ll still be heavily involved in this offense. Â