It’s a four-round season to decide the drivers championship.

With just one point separating Lando Norris from Oscar Piastri ahead of this weekend’s Sao Paulo Grand Prix, the ledger is all but equal. Whichever driver performs best over the next four grands prix and two sprints will win the world drivers title.

With McLaren having already romped to the constructors championship, the pinnacle achievement of the title double awaits it.

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But — there’s always a but.

Piastri’s lead loss at the Mexico City Grand Prix is indicative not just of the sudden and sharp downturn in the Australian’s score rate but also of McLaren’s vulnerability over recent races.

While Norris capitalised to haul himself to the top of the championship table for the first time since April, Max Verstappen has made up enormous ground on both of them.

Verstappen is just 35 points off the title lead — what we might describe as a worthy handicap representative of the threat the four-time champion poses to McLaren completing its first championship double since 1998.

McLaren long ago switched focus to its 2026 car, and both Piastri and Norris will surely — if they aren’t already — feel the pressure of staring in the face the purpose around which they’ve built their entire lives: to win a Formula 1 title.

Having won four already and having counted himself out of contention only a few months ago, Verstappen will not feel that pressure as he prepares to lunge for a fifth championship.

To answer the question of which driver will the title, we first must ask: whose reality are we in?

Is this still McLaren’s season, with Verstappen a mere inconvenient nuisance?

Or is this still the Verstappen era, reverberating all the way from his maiden title in 2021 to what would likely be his greatest championship in 2025?

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‘THE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASED’ AFTER MEXICO BOUNCE-BACK

Piastri won the Dutch Grand Prix, the first race back from the break, to give the strong impression that the season was picking up where it had left off: with him and McLaren in control.

But almost nothing since then has gone to plan.

Verstappen finished ahead of both McLaren drivers at the next four weekends in a row, and even as McLaren bounced back at the fifth weekend, in Mexico, he still finished ahead of one of them.

It wasn’t simply a case of the Dutchman finding form. McLaren was off the pace at all four rounds in what became its longest pole drought of the year. In Azerbaijan it recorded its lowest starting position of the season, and in Singapore it was the furthest off the pace it’s been in 2025, missing pole by 0.366 seconds.

Explanations were proffered for the team’s sudden inability to compete.

In Italy it was about the required low-downforce configuration robbing the car of most of its strengths — the car is at its best at medium-downforce circuits, where its aerodynamic efficiency keeps it fast down the straights without compromise through the turns.

In Azerbaijan it was about the slow-speed corners and kerb riding that upset the car. A similar explanation was offered in Singapore, though there the pure high-downforce configuration was also thought to reduce the car’s advantage.

McLaren was stronger in the United States but not fast enough on track or astute enough on the pit wall to overcome Charles Leclerc for second place until late in the race, by which time Verstappen had cleared off for victory.

For a team that hadn’t previously lost successive races this season, it was quite the aberration.

But McLaren saw hope in Norris’s second-place finish in Austin, where it thinks it would have had the race pace to take the fight to Verstappen had Leclerc not beat Norris to the first turn and held up the Briton thereafter.

That hunch was proved right in Mexico, where Norris obliterated the competition, storming to his first pole position in seven races and converting for his first win since the mid-season break, recording the year’s largest victory margin on the way.

Norris has always done well in Mexico, and the hot, high-altitude track also played to McLaren’s cooling and tyre-management strengths. The expected result on paper became reality.

“The confidence in terms of the championship is increased,” McLaren principal Andrea Stella said, per Autosport, after the race.

“It’s increased because we have proven that we have a car that can win races and in some conditions can dominate races.

“This is the most important factor to put Lando and Oscar in condition to pursue the drivers championship.”

In Stella’s opinion, the reality of the first half of the season was prevailing. The tightening points picture was irrelevant; McLaren was supreme again.

“I don’t think it’s about mathematics,” he said. “I think it’s about competitiveness, and it was important to confirm this competitiveness.

“I think even when it comes to Oscar, even if he lost some points to Verstappen, I think Oscar has got a lot of learning from this weekend, and that’s sort of an investment that you make to make sure that you are competitive in every condition in the final part of the season.

“So overall, we definitely, team and drivers, we come out of this weekend encouraged and optimistic for the final part of the season.

“I think both Lando and Oscar go into the final four races with reasons to be confident, and I think the team also goes into the final four races with more understanding of how to extract performance from the car consistently, because over the last few races before Mexico, at times we have left some performance in the garage.”

‘Obvious’ Oscar admits to driving change | 02:42

‘EXTRAORDINARY’ VERSTAPPEN BRINGS TITLE TOWARDS HIM

If Red Bull Racing’s curse is to never have a competitive second driver because its world revolves totally around Verstappen, this could also be its blessing in 2025.

It’s hard to imagine any other driver hauling themselves back into championship contention from 104 points down. It’s required results to go his way to some extent, but the ferocity of his own performances — winning three of the last five grands prix and finishing no lower than third for the rest — has made him impossible to ignore as a threat.

Those performances have been enabled by car upgrades following the Dutch Grand Prix, where his points deficit peaked after finishing second to Piastri.

Unsurprisingly, these updates also had Verstappen at their centre.

“All the changes and adjustments have come together in an optimal way,” Red Bull motorsport adviser Helmut Marko told Dutch magazine Formule 1. “That is the reason why the car is now more competitive.

“Max has an important voice in the technical discussions there with his experience.

“It was important that the engineers started listening to Max more. They did that before, but not to the extent they do now.

“Before that it was more about numbers on the simulator or CFD. Max told the engineers what he needed, got more confidence in the car that way, and it became easier to drive. The window in which the car works has become bigger.”

The RB21 has been faster than the McLaren over a single lap at four of the last five grands prix, with Verstappen outscoring both McLaren drivers at the same races.

His momentum slowed in Mexico, were he qualified well off the pace, but his race pace was worthy of second place behind the dominant Norris, suggesting the minor downturn likely had more to do with the peculiar high-altitude demands of Mexico City than this being another case of Red Bull Racing losing its way with the car.

Cooling problems — forever a problem in the thinner air — have been point to as a likely culprit.

But even then Verstappen generated his own gravity in the race, emerging with a third place that could so easily have been second place were it not for a late virtual safety car turning his fight with Leclerc into an anticlimax.

It was exactly the sort of drive he’d been producing since the mid-season break to force his will upon the series.

“Max has been driving at an incredible level,” team boss Laurent Mekies said last month. “We have to admit we’re witnessing something quite extraordinary, and it has produced this turnaround.”

Rivalry reignites! Lewis & Max Collide | 00:47

WHOSE REALITY IS TRUE?

Where do our competing realities sit with four rounds to go?

Can McLaren really have the momentum after one race victory from the last five grands prix?

Can Verstappen really be the title favourite from 35 points down?

A look to the past could help illuminate the future.

This weekend’s Sao Paulo Grand Prix is run on a circuit that should heavily favour McLaren. Its plentiful medium-speed turns will allow the MCL39 to show off its aerodynamic efficiency, and if Sunday is warm — a big if with rain on the radar — the car’s usual strength managing tyre temperature will give it an additional boost.

Piastri took sprint pole last year and would have won the short race but for team orders in Norris’s favour. Verstappen started a distant fourth and finished third before a penalty dropped him back to where he started.

In the wet, however, you’ll struggle to find anyone who would bet against Verstappen. It’s not just that he’s a wet-weather master; he’s undisputed in the wet in Interlagos particularly. Last year’s thumping victory, all but securing his fourth title, was only the latest example.

Las Vegas is next, where McLaren has historically struggled, though the team believes it’ll get lucky the third time around. It believes it’s understood its problems in Nevada and will be more competitive this season — though having never had a car qualify or finish higher than sixth means this isn’t a particularly high bar.

Verstappen clinched the title in Vegas last year, one year after having won the inaugural race down the Strip. His performances in Monza and Azerbaijan should on paper stand him in good stead for this layout, at least relative to McLaren.

That’s 1-1 for our competing realities.

Verstappen has won the last two editions of the Qatar Grand Prix, though Piastri was won the last two sprints, the second of which was handed to him by Norris in exchange for the sprint win in Brazil.

On paper this is a McLaren track, but Verstappen’s recent results could suggest it’s emerging as a Verstappen-specific circuit despite the technical evidence. Victory here could be decisive for any of the three parties.

The Abu Dhabi finale follows, where Verstappen has won four of the last five grands prix, though Norris controlled the race last year — albeit Piastri, starting second, was punted out of the race by Verstappen at the first turn.

This is billed as a McLaren circuit, but if Verstappen is still in title contention by the final round, it would be safe to assume that Red Bull Racing would be at least a match at a track that exhibits some friendly characteristics.

We might call that 2-2 for our competing realities.

Chaotic Mexico GP race recep | 09:18

McLaren boss Stella says his priority is ensuring his drivers can give a good account of themselves in the final rounds.

“For Lando and Oscar, there’s no problem in terms of track layout coming in the next four races,” he said, per the BBC.

“If anything, we need to make sure that from a McLaren point of view we are in condition to extract the full performance that is available in the car, like we have been able to do here in Mexico.

“This is the most important factor to put Lando and Oscar in condition to pursue the drivers championship.”

That, ironically, could be Verstappen’s greatest strength.

He talks about needing perfection to win the title, and that’s true. Even if he were to win all remaining grands prix and sprints, Norris could finish second to him each time and walk away a five-point title winner.

Assuming that Piastri is a match for Norris in at least two of the last four grands prix, however, means that Verstappen could take the title for himself by relying on the teammates to suppress each other’s points tallies.

“Everything needs to go perfect to win,” he said. “I think it’s going to be tough, but let’s see what we can do in other tracks.

“I hope of course we won’t experience a weekend like [Mexico] again, but it still shows that we’re not quick in every scenario.

“That’s what we need to understand, I think, a bit better.”

This weekend McLaren wants to prove that one victory means it’s back to its best, while Verstappen wants to prove that one defeat is immaterial in his run of sizzling form.

Only one can be right. Only one can win the title.

There can be only one reality.