Week 11 of college football continues a theme from Week 10: games that have lost some luster since earlier in the season. This week, it’s Indiana at Penn State and LSU at Alabama. The Nittany Lions and Tigers are two-score underdogs. Will we get any surprises or will the disappointing seasons for those two continue?

Our staff has picks against the spread for those games and other big ones to watch in Week 11, including BYU at Texas Tech with massive implications on the Big 12 race. Before getting into more depth on the matchups, let’s take a look at the picks. Standings and wild-card picks are at the bottom.

Staff picks for college football Week 11

Big 12 favorite to be decided
No. 7 BYU at No. 8 Texas Tech, noon ET on ABC

For as much as the Big 12 was hyped as a balanced league before the season, it could end up being a relatively clear-cut race at the top. No. 7 BYU and No. 8 Texas Tech are the top two Big 12 teams in the rankings, and both have wins against the only other ranked Big 12 team (No. 13 Utah).

BYU is undefeated and ranked higher, but the Red Raiders are significant favorites in this game. Tech has played more of the upper half of the Big 12 and has blown the doors off every team except for the lone loss at Arizona State. The Red Raiders’ margins of victory are frightening: 60, 48, 31, 24, 24, 25, 42, 23. By contrast, BYU’s biggest margin of victory in Big 12 play was 14 points, and three of the five conference wins have been by one score (including an overtime game).

If BYU wins, the Cougars are sitting pretty to both make the CFP and the Big 12 title game and would send Texas Tech into a crowd of two-loss teams in the standings. If Tech wins, it’s the Red Raiders who appear golden, and the other spot in the Big 12 title game could come down to the Cougars meeting with Cincinnati (5-1 in the Big 12) in a few weeks.

Will the Big Ten have a shake-up?
No. 2 Indiana at Penn State, noon ET on FOX
No. 9 Oregon at No. 20 Iowa, 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS

Ohio State and Indiana appear headed for a collision course in the Big Ten title game, and Oregon appears to also be headed for the College Football Playoff. But what if that weren’t true?

All three of those teams are on the road this week (OK, Ohio State is playing at Purdue as a massive favorite, so let’s move past that one).

Indiana is a two-touchdown favorite at Penn State, and nothing about the way the Hoosiers have played should lead to thinking an upset is coming. This is still an interesting test for IU because Penn State has a lot of talented players, even if the sum of the parts has not come close to that. The toughest win Indiana had last season was at home against an offensively-challenged, but individually talented Michigan team. Can Penn State’s NFL prospects make this a game, or will IU continue to steamroll?

The challenge Oregon faces this weekend is far more threatening. Iowa is great at making games ugly and already took Indiana down to the final minutes this season.

The Ducks are going to get a Big Ten baptism, which has been due because Oregon’s only win against an FBS team with a winning record is Northwestern. Oregon’s four remaining opponents all have winning records in the Big Ten: Iowa, Minnesota, USC and Washington. Oregon will get the quality wins it needs to be a deserving playoff team or prove to be in the second tier of the conference.

Will the SEC have a shake-up?
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 22 Missouri, 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
LSU at No. 4 Alabama, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC

Apologies for using the same header twice, but this week’s SEC schedule does mirror the Big Ten’s relatively well. The two teams with undefeated SEC records, Texas A&M and Alabama, have tricky games that could plausibly get interesting, but both teams are solidly favored.

If the Aggies and Crimson Tide win, it seems more likely these two teams are on a collision course for the SEC title game. If one or both lose, who knows what happens. The SEC has three teams with one conference loss waiting in the wings if either of these teams slip up (Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas).

Alabama is a bigger favorite against LSU, which takes the field for the first time since Brian Kelly was fired. The Crimson Tide barely beat South Carolina last time out so let’s not take anything for granted. Any time Alabama and LSU meet, it’s worth your attention, even when one team just had its coach fired and is a double-digit underdog.

Alabama has a good record against pretty much everyone in recent years, but it’s still striking to see that Alabama is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings in this series. The two LSU wins were when the Tigers had future Heisman Trophy winners at quarterback (Joe Burrow in 2019 and Jayden Daniels in 2022, the year before he won the Heisman).

Texas A&M is on the road against a ranked Missouri team, but the Tigers are down to third-string quarterback Matt Zollers due to injuries. Zollers was a top 10 quarterback recruit in the 2025 class and had a bye week to get first-team reps, but this will be his first college start. Perhaps the limited film on Zollers can help the Tigers surprise a Texas A&M defense that has had a couple stinkers on the road (giving up 40 points at Notre Dame and 42 at Arkansas).

Not to play the “ain’t played nobody” card on Texas A&M — which has a top-10 road win at Notre Dame, and the 24-point win at LSU last time out was impressive regardless of the state of that team — but the Aggies’ five SEC wins have all come against teams with losing records in the conference. That wouldn’t change with a win this week against 2-2 Mizzou and won’t next week with 1-6 South Carolina. The combined record for A&M’s five SEC opponents so far: 6-20.

That said, if you don’t quite believe in Texas A&M based on the SEC foes they’ve played (or haven’t played): Is a team on its third-string freshman quarterback the one to knock off the Aggies?

Can the American sort itself out?
Tulane at Memphis, 9 p.m. ET Friday on ESPN

Given the respect the American has been getting in the polls and general media coverage, it’s perhaps a bit surprising to see none of those teams in the opening CFP rankings. That almost doesn’t matter because no Group of 5 (6?) schools are ranked, so the American still has the pole position for a CFP berth.

The American has six teams with one loss in conference play at the top of the standings, and it’s turning into a room full of Spider-Men, all pointing at each other and seeing the same thing looking back at them.

This Friday night special is Tulane’s first game against the other contenders in the American, and Memphis is favored at home.

Wild-card picks

Every week, our pickers select another bet of their choosing that isn’t limited to the games listed above.

Matt Baker: Washington -11.5 at Wisconsin

Mark Cooper: East Carolina -28.5 vs. Charlotte

Seth Emerson: Georgia at Mississippi State under 57.5

Sam Khan Jr.: Virginia -6.5 vs. Wake Forest

Austin Mock: Northwestern at USC over 50.5

Dan Santaromita: Maryland -1.5 at Rutgers

Daniel Shirley: Georgia -8.5 at Mississippi State

David Ubben: Georgia at Mississippi State under 57.5

Chris Vannini: Tulane at Memphis over 54.5

Picks standings
WriterLast weekWild cardsOverall

Matt Baker

4-5

7-4

53-41-2

David Ubben

4-5

5-6

51-43-2

Dan Santaromita

6-3

2-9

50-44-2

Sam Khan Jr.

4-5

5-5-1

49-44-3

Chris Vannini

1-8

6-5

46-48-2

Austin Mock

4-4-1

5-5-1

45-48-3

Daniel Shirley

5-4

2-7-1

43-49-3

Seth Emerson

6-3

1-9

43-50-2

Mark Cooper

2-7

3-8

34-60-2