This is it. Way back on Aug. 19, I made my first field of 32 projections based on rosters sent to me by coaches, and 12 beautiful weeks later, we are on the cusp of the bracket for the DII football championship. Nineteen of those teams I projected on Aug. 19 are still in the top 32, so while that is not amazing, it is pretty impressive that with the injuries and new-look faces this year, that many made it this far.

Last week, once again, all 40 of our projected teams matched the third regional rankings. They weren’t all in the correct order because, per usual, I was looking ahead. PLEASE NOTE: THESE ARE PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS. I still have some question marks to ponder (discussed below). Expect my FINAL BRACKET PROJECTIONS around 3 p.m. ET, today, Nov. 16.

And then watch me on the 2025 DII football championship selection show at 6 p.m. ET by clicking here (shameless plug!).

Remember,

Once again, these have been my projections of how I thought the bracket would look on Nov. 16. If you want to track each super region in real time, Inkblot Sports does a great job on that. Do I say this a lot? Yes. Do I get at least one email a week asking me why my “rankings” are so far off from Inkblot Sports? Yes. Does it drive me absolutely insane? You have no idea.

I use the strength of schedule (SoS) posted on NCAA.org. Other sites calculate their own, and that is fine; however, I want to see exactly what the selection committee is handed, and from what I’ve been told, it is that number.

The KPI used by the committee is from Faktor Sports. What you’ll see is the overall DII rank in KPI, not the super region rank.

Top 25 winning percentage is NOT a bracket selection criterion. However, I feel it is a useful gauge for seeing how a team may be performing.

Please enjoy these preliminary thoughts as a free article for all subscribers.

What Wayne says: I’m fairly confident here in seven of the eight teams in the bracket. The big question mark: Did Charleston (WV) do enough to play itself in? Fayetteville State was idle this week, but the Broncos’ metrics pretty much crush the Golden Eagles. I wonder if that late bye week hurts anything. It shouldn’t, but we have seen crazier things.

What Wayne says: How ‘bout them Blazers? New-look Valdosta State took its time finding its way this season, but when GSC play opened, the Blazers romped through nationally ranked opponents and clinched the automatic bid by taking down West Alabama, Delta State and West Florida all in a row. The Blazers and North Greenville ruined several programs’ postseason dreams yesterday, as we have a pair of four-loss teams in the bracket.

Like Super Region One, I am highly confident in seven of the eight teams here. It comes down to Emory & Henry and Kentucky State. To the naked eye, it seems like a no-brainer: Kentucky State is 9-1. But you have to remember: The bracket isn’t a national ranking; it is supposed to be a mathematical equation based on metrics. Carson-Newman has the edge in some of the tougher metrics (like SoS and KPI) on both; however, the Eagles also lost to E&H earlier, giving the Wasps the edge. I could be bitter about what the Thorobreds did to Delta State this weekend. This is where I could see a change later today in my final projections.

What Wayne says: Yep. I have Augustana (SD) out. The Vikings played a relatively easy schedule based on SoS up until the final three weeks of the season. While they defeated Northern State, they fell to both Minnesota State and Wayne State (Neb). That head-to-head victory is what keeps the Mavericks in the hunt over the Vikings, despite a bad loss Saturday as well to MSU Moorhead. However, Truman makes a very compelling case and could bump the Mavericks. This is one spot I need to continue to ponder and break down.

I put Northwood in over the Vikings, but I can see this one changing. I don’t think MSU Moorhead or Wayne State (Neb) did enough to boost themselves in, but they deserve some recognition, so I added them as the No. 11 and 12 teams. This is my toughest super region. I am only confident on six of the teams. Expect more at 3 p.m. (ish) after a full deep dive.

What Wayne says: Not only am I confident about the top seven seeds here, I think the order will stand. The final spot comes down to Western Oregon, which played Central Washington very well for more than a half, and UTPB. At the end of the day, I have Western Oregon in because the Wolves defeated the Falcons on Oct. 18. Yes, that was a sexy win for UTPB yesterday, dropping 74 points on Sul Ross State, but it was the seventh time the Lobos allowed more than 60 points this season.

One thing to note, I almost out Henderson State back in the mix. However, the Reddies’ loss to Southern Arkansas earlier this year allows the Muleriders to remain just outside the cut.