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The two teams we all thought we’d see in the NFC Championship Game last year face off on Sunday Night Football in Week 11 action when the Philadelphia Eagles host the Detroit Lions. The Eagles are 7-2 after winning the Super Bowl last year, but the offense is a work in progress despite the elite record. The Lions are 6-3 after falling in the Divisional Round last year, and they hope to make a better run this season as they’re atop a crowded NFC North division.
Be it this year or last year, these teams have leaned on the run game. There’s a good reason for that, as both teams have some of the best running backs in football. Saquon Barkley is fresh off a 2,000-yard campaign for the Eagles last year, while Jahmyr Gibbs is ninth in the league in rushing yards and third in rushing scores this year. So which star running back should you back in different NFL player props for Sunday Night Football? With so many NFL player props available for Lions vs. Eagles, we’ve used the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, to help identify the best player prop picks for Gibbs and Barkley. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the SportsLine model’s game forecast for Lions vs. Eagles, as well expert picks and best bets.
Carries props
Jahmyr Gibbs: 13.5 (Over -112, Under -114)
Saquon Barkley: 16.5 (Over -132, Under +103)
Top pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 13.5 carries (4.5 stars)
Gibbs has cleared 13.5 carries five times while going Under this specific line four times this season. The star Lions back is also a fixture in the receiving game, which can eat into his rushing attempt numbers, as can the role of David Montgomery. The model thinks Gibbs will have a large workload on Sunday, however, with a projection of 18.7 carries against the Eagles, well over this 13.5 line.
Rushing yards props
Jahmyr Gibbs: 61.5 (Over -112, Under -112)
Saquon Barkley: 70.5 (Over -110, Under -114)
Top pick: Jahymr Gibbs Over 61.5 rushing yards (4.5 stars)
The model is also big on Gibbs going Over his rushing yards prop with a 4.5-star rating and projection of 75.6 rushing yards. Gibbs has gone Over 61.5 rushing yards in six of nine games played this season, and Philly can be had on the ground as the Eagles rank 19th in rushing yards allowed per game this year.