U.S. Treasury yields moved lower Thursday as investors reacted to the delayed September labor market report that showed more jobs than expected were created in the month, while the number in August was revised lower. The September unemployment rate rose to its highest in almost four years.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 4.098%, while the 30-year bond yield stood at 3.552%, more than 2 basis point lower. The 2-year note yield dropped 4 basis points to 3.552%.
One basis point equals 0.01% and yields and prices move in opposite directions.
The U.S. economy added substantially more jobs than expected in September, according to a long-awaited report Thursday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but the unemployment rate edged higher.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000 in the month, above a Dow Jones consensus estimate for September of 50,000, following a downward revision to a 4,000-job loss in August. The July total also was revised lower, to 72,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the prior release.
In addition to the headline jobs number, the BLS said the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021.
The report could help sway the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision in December.
“Normally, a data release for a couple of months ago wouldn’t be too impactful, but a December cut likely relies on a weak print, which is clearly possible, especially optically when the breakeven rate of payrolls is as low as it is in 2025,” Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note Thursday before the payroll report was released.
After the September numbers, interest rate futures traders priced in a higher likelihood, 42% up from 30% on Wednesday, that the Fed will cut rates another quarter point at its next meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. A week ago, however, odds of a December cut were 50% and a month ago there was near unanimity in the market, with odds of a cut at 99%.
Bond market investors were also still considering the minutes that were released Wednesday from the Federal Reserve’s October meeting, which highlighted divisions among Fed officials over whether a slowing labor market or inflation pose the greatest threat to the U.S. economy.
Policymakers disagreed over the future course of interest rates, with a number of voting members calling for no more interest rate reductions this year.
— With added reporting by CNBC’s Jeff Cox