Tasmania is a fortnight away from a final decision on whether to build the Macquarie Point stadium in Hobart, with the upper house set to vote in the first week of December.
If they vote against it, the Tassie Devils will be stripped of their AFL licence, the team will not come into existence and the state will lose its once in a generation chance to enter the competition.
The 23,000 seat roofed stadium has been the stone in the shoe for the Devils, with strong political opposition to building the near $1b venue.
FOLLOW LIVE: Ashes first Test coverage
READ MORE: Superstar under the pump as Ashes blowtorch fires
READ MORE: ‘Did zilch’: Biggest winners and losers from AFL draft
It has led to a snap state election and politicians flying to Melbourne to petition AFL House directly.
However, the stadium still has bipartisan support in Tasmania, and the vote comfortably sailed through the lower house with a vote of 25 to nine after a six-hour debate.
A render of what the Tassie stadium would look like. Twitter
That was always going to be the easy part. The upper house will certainly be closer, given the lack of support among the greens and independents.
Talk locally in Tasmania has revolved around two thoughts. The first being if the stadium is rejected, the AFL will grant them the licence regardless. The second urging the state government to re-work the deal with the AFL and change the requirement for a roofed stadium.
However, Devils chief Brendon Gale has reaffirmed that things remain painfully simple. Build the stadium or the team will not exist.
“I’ve had a couple of days in Melbourne with the AFL, and that’s the reality we stare into every day and that’s the risk we accept,” Gale told SEN.
“Notwithstanding all of the progress that has been made, if the stadium can’t be delivered and the commercial requirements of the team can’t be met to run a team on a sustainable basis, there won’t be a license.
“And without the stadium, there wouldn’t have been a conditional licence granted in the first place.
“If there isn’t a stadium underpinning this club … there won’t be a team.”
Tassie Devils CEO Brendon Gale. Getty
The plan remains for Tassie to enter the VFL in 2026 and the AFL and AFLW in 2028.
However, if the stadium is approved, Gale admits the earliest it can be ready for is the 2030 season now, given the mounting delays.
“I think it’s unlikely (for 2029),” he said.
“I think a year after (2030). We’re getting way ahead of ourselves, but if things go OK, that’s in the frame.
“Clearly it’s a big project. Time is an issue and all things going well in the upper house, they’d have to get cracking.”
The Devils already have a number of staff, they’re in discussion with people for football department and coaching roles and they’re building a program for their VFL and VFLW sides.
But all of that comes crashing down if the state government rejects the stadium in December.
Gale admits he has made his peace with the risks at play here.
Future players unveil the new Tasmania Devils jumper. Getty
“We’ll have to cross that bridge when we come to it, but personally and professionally, it’s something I’ve stared into (the team losing its licence) as a professional risk,” Gale said.
“I felt given it was for my home, that it was worth (the risk).
“It’s something we’re not contemplating at this stage, but we’ll have to cross that bridge if we come to it, I guess.
“We feel confident in the case we have presented. We’ve kept out of politics as much as we can publicly.
“But clearly behind the scenes we support the stadium, our existence depends on it.
“I’m confident in the representations we have made and we don’t take anything for granted, but ultimately it is out of our control.”
The Devils have been strongly linked with former Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley, should the team come to be and need a senior coach.
Gale says they ideally will have their inaugural coach locked in come the second half of 2026.