A couple of weeks ago when the Baseball Hall of Fame announced its Contemporary Era player ballot, the biggest headline was that Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens would once again be considered despite drawing little support their first time in front of the committee.
But tucked away at the bottom of the announcement was a detail that could have major implications for the pair’s Cooperstown hopes.
“Beginning with the December 2025 Contemporary Baseball Era ballot for players, any candidate who appears on a ballot and does not receive votes from at least five of the 16 voters will not be eligible to be placed on the ballot within its next three-year cycle,” the Hall of Fame announcement reads. “Any such candidates would remain eligible to return to an Era Committee ballot in the following election cycle. Any Era Committee voting results prior to December 2025 do not apply to this rule.”
“Additionally, any candidate that does not receive at least five of 16 votes in multiple appearances on Era Committee ballots will not be eligible for future ballot consideration,” the announcement continues. “Candidates who receive at least five of 16 votes will remain eligible for the following cycle of Era Committee consideration but will not necessarily be placed on the subsequent ballot.”
Translation, it’s time to settle the Bonds and Clemens question, now and possibly forever.
Former San Francisco Giants great Barry Bonds will be up for consideration by the Baseball Hall of Fame’s Contemporary Baseball Era committee, but if he falls short again it may be awhile before he gets another shot. (File Photo)
Back in December of 2022 the Hall of Fame reorganized its long-standing Era Committee process and split the candidates into three pools, one for players who primarily played after 1980, another for managers, executives and umpires from after 1980, and a Classic Baseball ballot for everyone from earlier in the game’s history. The Contemporary player ballot was the first one up, and that first year featured Bonds, Clemens, Rafael Palmeiro, Albert Belle, Curt Schilling, Fred McGriff, Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy.
Fred McGriff was the only player elected, receiving unanimous approval from all 16 voters. But Bonds, Clemens and Rafael Palmeiro, all of whom have been linked to performance-enhancing drugs, each received fewer than four votes.
The result was clarifying.
Though Bonds and Clemens were never elected during their 10 years on the BBWAA ballot, both saw their support steadily trend upwards and consistently drew more than 60% of the vote in their last few years. But when put before a committee of baseball lifers, the pair was effectively shut out.
Now Bonds and Clemens are being given a second chance and will be considered by a different 16-member group than before, but if they flop again their chances of ever being elected to Cooperstown will be thrown into serious jeopardy.
Should either Bonds or Clemens once again fall short of five votes, they would be ineligible for the next Contemporary player ballot, which will be considered in December of 2028. The soonest they could be looked at again would be the following election in December of 2031.
If they were added back to the ballot then, it would potentially be their last chance. Another shutout would mark their second under the current rules, which would make them ineligible for any future Era Committee ballot unless the Hall of Fame changed its format or made a special exception sometime down the road.
But even if the 2022 result doesn’t count as a strike under the current rules, a poor showing next month would still mark Bonds and Clemens’ second bad result. At that point the Hall of Fame’s Historical Overview Committee, which determines who makes each ballot, could decide to set them aside next time around in favor of other candidates like Dwight Evans, who was a notable snub from this year’s ballot.
Either way, if Bonds or Clemens don’t show some kind of momentum, it will be a long time before they get another shot at Cooperstown.
The full Contemporary Era ballot, in addition to Bonds and Clemens, features Carlos Delgado, Jeff Kent, Mattingly, Murphy, Gary Sheffield and Fernando Valenzuela.
Will this be the year Carlos Beltran gets his call to Cooperstown? (AP Photo/Charles Krupa, File)
Has time come for Beltran, Jones?
Unlike most of the past few years, which featured at least one obvious first-ballot Hall of Fame contender, this year’s class of new candidates for Cooperstown is pretty light.
Of the six first-year candidates, only left-hander Cole Hamels and outfielder Ryan Braun have a realistic chance to even earn the 5% necessary to remain on the ballot. Hamels has a fringy case as a starting pitcher and could conceivably be enshrined someday, but not this year. Braun would have faced a long road anyway, but his suspension for performance-enhancing drugs will ensure he never gets a sniff.
That means voters will instead get to take a closer look at the returning candidates from last year, and two in particular stand to benefit.
Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones have both seen their support surge in recent years, and last year the pair each came within striking distance of the 75% needed for induction. Beltran (70.3%) came up 19 votes short, and Jones (66.2%) was 35 votes short.
Will this be their year?
On paper Beltran’s resume is clearly Hall of Fame worthy. Over a 20-year career Beltran was a Rookie of the Year, nine-time All-Star, three-time Gold Glove winner, two-time Silver Slugger selection and posted 435 home runs and 70.0 wins above replacement in his career. But his candidacy has become controversial because of his involvement in the 2017 Houston Astros sign-stealing scandal.
That scandal is a big reason why Beltran only earned 46.5% of the vote on his first ballot in 2022, but since then he’s steadily jumped to 57.1% in 2023 and 70.3% last year. Historically almost every player who has topped 70% has been elected eventually, so Beltran should have great odds at receiving his call, which would be great news for other 2017 Astros like Jose Altuve, who figures to be another deserving but controversial candidate down the road.
Jones’ case is a little more complex.
At his peak Jones was arguably among the most talented outfielders who ever lived. From when he debuted at age 19 in 1996 until his age-30 season in 2007, Jones won 10 straight Gold Gloves, earned five All-Star nods and a Silver Slugger, hit 368 home runs with 1,117 RBI, 138 stolen bases, a .263 average and .839 OPS and compiled 61 wins above replacement.
At that time Jones would have seemed a virtual lock to reach Cooperstown, but from that point on his career fell off a cliff. In 2008, Jones signed a two-year deal with the Dodgers and flopped spectacularly, and over his last five seasons he was a shell of his former self.
He also plead guilty to a battery charge stemming from a domestic incident with his wife in 2012, which some voters have considered when judging his candidacy as well.
Jones only drew 7.3% of the vote his first time on the ballot, but he’s benefitted from a recent trend where voters have been more willing to forgive lower career totals if a player had an elite peak. Jones’s first 10 seasons were undoubtedly among the best stretches by any player in MLB history, so should that be enough?
If the voters decide it is, that would be great news for ballot-mates like Felix Hernandez, Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia, each of whom also reached soaring heights for a stretch but for various reasons were unable to sustain it.
Pittsburgh Pirates rookie Cam Devanney stands at the plate during his MLB debut at Fenway Park this past August. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)
Devanney going to Japan
This past year former Central Catholic standout Cam Devanney realized his lifelong dream when he not only made his MLB debut with the Pittsburgh Pirates, but played his first big league game at Fenway Park.
Now, the Amherst, N.H., native is about to embark on another journey.
As first reported by Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Devanney is signing with the Hanshin Tigers of Nippon Professional Baseball in Japan. The 28-year-old has been released by the Pirates to facilitate the move and will follow first baseman Bob Seymour and right-hander Roansy Contreras as players jumping from MLB to NPB this offseason.
A 15th-round pick by the Brewers in 2019, Devanney steadily worked his way up through the minors and over the past few years has posted impressive production at Triple-A, both in the Brewers and Royals system. He was promoted to the big leagues for the first time by the Royals in July but never appeared in a game before he was traded to the Pirates, who promptly optioned him back to Triple-A.
Devanney eventually earned another call-up, debuted in Boston on Aug. 31 and appeared in 14 games with the Pirates.
Devanney likely would have been on the 40-man roster bubble with the Pirates this offseason and while he may have had a chance to compete for a role in spring training, it’s possible he may have started the season back in Triple-A. By signing with a Japanese club Devanney will have a chance to earn more money next year than he might have otherwise, and while not at MLB’s level, NPB is generally considered to offer a higher level of competition than Triple-A.
Local notes
Boston’s Joshua Baez (Cardinals) and Methuen’s Dom Keegan (Rays) were each among the numerous prospects added to their respective club’s 40-man rosters on Tuesday ahead of the Rule 5 protection deadline. They joined Millbury’s Ryan Ward (Dodgers), who was added earlier this month as well. … Rowley’s Thomas White enters the offseason as Baseball America’s No. 20 overall prospect. The former Phillips Andover great is currently the highest ranked left-hander on the board and finished the season in Triple-A. … Kevin Graber, the longtime Phillips Academy coach who previously coached White in Andover and who recently returned after a two-year stint in the Chicago Cubs organization, has been tabbed as the new manager for the rebooted Lowell Spinners.