South-east Queensland’s population is set to reach 4.5 million by the time Brisbane hosts the 2032 Olympics, new analysis shows, despite rising property prices driven by a lack of supply.

Analysis of Australian Bureau of Statics data by KPMG reveals the population in the south-east corner has grown by as much as 2.2 per cent over the past five years, above the national average of 1.5 per cent.

“You’ve got people coming from expensive Sydney or dreary Melbourne or those small cities around the country, and also it’s pulling people from places like Darwin and Cairns,” KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley said.

The analysis forecasts the south-east Queensland population will be as high as five million by 2036.

New report details Brisbane economic boom

The economy has tipped over $200b as population and employment continues to grow.

But not everyone is flocking to Brisbane, with more than half of the growth happening outside the state capital. 

In the last five years, 68,000 new residents called the Gold Coast home, 61,000 in Logan and Beaudesert, 51,600 in Ipswich, and 47,500 more on the Sunshine Coast.

“What we are seeing in Brisbane over a long time is the inner-city suburbs have got more and more expensive, and more and more people are being pushed out to those growth areas in Ipswich and Logan,” Mr Rawnsley said. 

Trinity and James McNicol

Trinity and James McNicol have moved from Brisbane to Ipswich with space for horses and a larger house.

Trinity and James McNicol made the move from the Brisbane suburb of Newmarket to Purga in Ipswich in 2021, swapping a small Queenslander for a four-bedroom house and 100 acres of farm land for a comparable price. 

“We can combine what we love outside of work, still have our jobs in the city with a reasonable commute distance, but have a bit more space,” she said.

“You have got everything at your fingertips. It is the perfect combination of having the space, the lifestyle, a bit more peace and quiet, but still having absolutely everything you need.”

Interstate migration is also driving unprecedented growth, with more than 22,000 people moving to the south-east from other cities.

However, Mr Rawnsley said the flow of people moving from Sydney to Brisbane had started to slow over the last three years as Queensland’s property prices caught up.

Brisbane prices rise by almost 13pc in 12 months

Data from Cotality reveals unit prices in Brisbane rose by 2.2 per cent in November and house prices grew by 1.8 per cent, while property prices rose 12.8 per cent in 12 months.

The city’s median home value has reached $1,015,767, which is the second highest in the country behind Sydney.

Head of research Eliza Owen said the price growth was partly due to affordability and investor demand, as well as low supply levels.

“Unit values are up by about 5 per cent in the past 12 months against an 8 per cent increase in house values, so that tells us that Brisbane is a bit unique,” she said.

“Maybe with more buyers looking to the unit market because they can get more for their money in terms of location.”

Eleanor Creagh

Eleanor Creagh says property prices will continue to rise but at a slower rate. (Supplied)

REA Group senior economist Eleanor Creagh said while prices were continuing to rise, the “silver lining” for those trying to buy a house was that the pace of growth was no longer accelerating relative to the same time last year.  

“The supply of new housing is certainly not keeping up with the demand at the moment,” she said.

“As a result, we are seeing that those fundamental drivers remain in play with continued upward pressure on home prices.”