Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff, who attended the rally, said on Monday he believed the stadium now had “majority support”.
“The Adelaide Oval, there were protests against, Optus [Stadium] in Perth, Townsville … this is not new. This is something we need to properly explain and articulate. But this is a defining moment in Tasmania’s history,” Rockliff told ABC Radio.
“We had 15,000 people rallying … for something. Amongst all that, and people of all ages, it really was a feeling we need this for our young people.”
Labor leader Josh Willie declared his party’s support on Sunday, calling the project essential for the state’s future.
In the no corner
Those against the stadium, including former AFL great Brent Crosswell and federal MP Andrew Wilkie, insist it is too expensive. According to police, more than 1500 people attended a “No New Stadium” protest last week.
Objectors cite the project’s price tag ballooning from an initial $715 million. The federal government has committed $240 million and the AFL $15 million, while the state must borrow the remainder, adding to fears the financially crippled state will be buried in debt. The state’s Treasury Department has estimated debt will top $13 billion by 2028.
A Tasmanian Planning Commission report earlier this year recommended against the stadium, declaring the negatives outweighed the positives.
Hoping to get the nod: The future of the Tasmania Devils could be contingent on whether the new stadium is built.Credit: AAPIMAGE
How will the votes fall?
To pass the Legislative Council, the government needs at least eight of the chamber’s 15 votes.
The Liberals have three – they are all expected to vote in favour – while Labor has three. That will be two votes in favour, but the third is Craig Farrell, who is the president of the upper house. It’s uncertain which way Farrell will vote, but in cases where a vote is tied, the president traditionally votes in the negative.
Independents Casey Hiscutt and Tania Rattray are reportedly likely to vote “yes” – that would bring support to seven votes.
However, the Greens’ Cassy O’Connor and independent Meg Webb are set to oppose the motion.
Independents Ruth Forrest, Mike Gaffney and Rosemary Armitage are reportedly leaning towards “no” as well.
That leaves independents Dean Harriss and Bec Thomas with the crucial votes, each having raised issues about the stadium.
“If we can’t pay for essential services without running up repeated billion-dollar deficits, it is reasonable to ask the question – how can we afford a billion dollar stadium?” Harriss said in parliament last month.
Thomas, a big basketball supporter, says her vote is “contingent on the government adequately funding grassroots sport”, and not focusing solely on elite sport.
“I acknowledge the passion with which people have argued their position on the stadium – both for and against, and I think it’s a great shame that the dream of a Tasmanian AFL team has been so overshadowed by the division in the community, as evidenced by the rallies over the past two weekends,” she told this masthead.
“From the outset I’ve said I will fully consider all the issues and arguments prior to casting my vote.”
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Harriss was contacted for comment on Monday.
When will we know?
The upper house debate starts on Wednesday. Members can speak for as long as they like, meaning a vote may not be held until Thursday evening, according to government insiders. The government says a final decision must be made this year.
What then?
If it’s approved, the state-owned Macquarie Point Development Corporation needs to get busy with site excavations. The plan is for the stadium to be built in time for the men’s 2029 season.
The Tasmanian government and Cricket Australia have also struck a deal for top-level games to switch from Bellerive to the new stadium.
If the stadium is not approved, a government source, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said there was no other way for the build to go ahead.
The source expected the AFL to then turn its attention to expansion in the Northern Territory, because the state government would be in breach of its contract with the league for the 19th licence.
It will then be up to the league to determine whether it backflips and allows the Tasmanian team to proceed without a new stadium, delays the licence, or even torpedoes the whole plan.
The AFL was contacted for comment.
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