After 23 races, Lando Norris, Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri all remain within mathematical contention for the World Championship in Abu Dhabi this weekend.

It has been a season full of highs and lows for all three, but we can break down the results each driver will need to take the title for themselves come the end of Sunday’s race.

F1 2025 title permutations: How Lando Norris can win the World Championship

McLaren driver Norris remains hot favourite for the title, and he heads into the weekend knowing that a podium finish, no matter what his rivals manage, will be enough to secure a first Drivers’ crown.

Looking at where Norris could finish, here has the most breathing room in relation to his rivals in order to secure his first championship. Drivers listed ‘anywhere’ on the table below means those drivers could finish in any position, and it would not affect Norris’ title outcome if he takes one of those places.

With that, here is how Norris can become champion based on his finishing position:

Norris
Verstappen
Piastri

P1
Anywhere
Anywhere

P2
Anywhere
Anywhere

P3
Anywhere
Anywhere

P4
P2
Anywhere

P5
P2
Anywhere

P6
P2
P2

P7
P2
P2

P8
P3
P2

P9
P4
P2

P10
P4
P3

P11 or lower
P4
P3

More on F1 2025 as it reaches its conclusion

👉 F1 penalty points: Which driver is closest to receiving a one-race ban?

👉 F1 schedule: When is the next F1 race and where is it being held?

F1 2025 title permutations: How Max Verstappen can win the World Championship

Max Verstappen knows ahead of the weekend that anything less than a podium finish would not keep him in any kind of contention for the title, with Norris sitting 12 points ahead.

Should Verstappen score exactly 12 points more than Norris, the equivalent of a fourth place finish if Norris finishes outside the points, it would be the McLaren driver who would be ahead in the title race on countback, because the two share an equal number of race victories and Norris holds more second place finishes throughout the season.

In the unlikely event it comes down to a straight battle between Verstappen and Piastri, Verstappen can afford to finish second or third – provided Piastri does not go on to win the race, given their four-point gap heading into Abu Dhabi.

Keeping that in mind, here is a look at how Verstappen can overcome both Norris and Piastri this weekend:

Verstappen
Norris
Piastri

P1
P4
Anywhere

P2
P8
Non-victory

P3
P9
Non-victory

Max Verstappen cannot win the title without a podium finish.

F1 2025 title permutations: How Oscar Piastri can win the World Championship

Oscar Piastri has the slimmest chance of title glory heading into the weekend, knowing he needs a top-two finish to have any chance of winning his first World Championship.

Piastri
Norris
Verstappen

P1
P6
Anywhere

P2
P10
P4

Oscar Piastri cannot win the title without finishing in the top two places.

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