Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Kāinga Ora has changed most of its home loan rates. It cut its floating rate by -20 bps, a large move by industry standards. It also cut most of its fixed rates too.. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

A NEW WEEKLY QUIZ RELEASED
The latest quiz is now out. You can do it here.

CARD ACTIVITY TURNS UP
ANZ said the card transactions running through their system shows November retail activity firmer than October, and up +3.9% compared to the same time last year. They note that spending is clearly picking up. Durables spending is very cyclical, and has the strongest annual growth, at +8.0%. There are now no categories which are down versus a year earlier. The growing popularity of Black Friday sales likely boosted card spending over November, particularly for durables (even after adjusting for seasonality.

BUT BLACK FRIDAY MAY HAVE BEEN A FIZZER FOR RETAILERS
But dominant retail Big-Tech supplier Salesforce said their data wasn’t so positive in New Zealand. For the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales week, they reported 0% YoY sales growth, -1% YoY order growth, average 12% discount, +14% YoY discount growth, and -2% YoY online traffic growth. That makes rather grim reading for retailers in this supposedly critical retail window.

NO CRED, TONE DEAF
There are two mortgage broker industry lobbying groups in New Zealand. The smallest one (and by some margin) is for ‘hunter’ brokers and is run out of Australia. They put out a spruiking press release today (from Australia) that said: “FAMNZ managing director Peter White AM said the latest ABS Housing Confidence Survey should be welcome news to aspiring homeowners.” Perhaps Gold Coast-based White doesn’t actually know where New Zealand is. His “AM” accolade will be lost on any kiwi, and he confuses the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) with the ASB Bank. No wonder they are leaking membership. Most have switched to Financial Advice NZ as their trade group.

STILL VERY POSITIVE, BUT NOT BY QUITE AS MUCH
Farmer sentiment has dipped from near-record highs. Although dairy farmers are feeling more anxious about their outlook, the other sectors remain very positive, according to the latest Rabobank rural confidence survey.

NZX50 FIRMS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.4% so far on Monday. That puts it up +0.6% over the past five working days. It is up +3.6% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +5.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +1.1% so far today. Among the majors, Vital Healthcare has surged +7%, with Stride Property, Spark and Infratil edging higher as Kathmandu, SkyTV, Scales and Serko retreat.

STILL VERY HIGH
After hitting an all-time record high the prior week, turnover in the secondary NZ government bonds was very high again last week, the second highest weekly level ever.

LEAKING CONFIDENCE
BMI, a unit of Fitch, says confidence in the government has hit a record low, with Ipsos rating performance at 3.9/10 in early November, the weakest since tracking began in September 2017. This is reflected in a rise in the BMI Political Risk Index score from 16 in mid-2023 to 18.3 in November 2025. Their baseline view remains that the coalition government will serve its full term through to 2026, and they do not anticipate early elections. However, the coalition’s ability to maintain internal cohesion and deliver on its policy commitments will be critical to its survival, they conclude.

JAPAN WEAKER
Japan’s GDP contracted -0.6% in Q3 2025 from Q2, a larger fall than the flash estimate of a -0.4% decline and market forecasts for a -0.5% drop. The latest figure followed a downwardly revised -0.5% growth in Q2 and marked the first quarterly contraction since Q1 2024, with business spending slipping for the first time in three quarters.

SWAP RATES MUCH FIRMER
Wholesale swap rates are have probably turned up today, across the board. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.47% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps at 4.73%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.85%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +8 bps from this morning at 4.56%. The RBNZ data is now ‘prior day’ with Friday’s rate up +7 bps at 4.45%. The UST 10yr yield is unchanged at 4.14%.

EQUITIES LITTLE-CHANGED
The local equity market is up +0.4% in Monday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.2% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -0.5% and Shanghai is up +0.1%. Singapore is down -0.2% at its open. Wall Street looks like it will open tomorrow up +0.2% on the S&P500..

OIL HOLDS
The oil price in the US is unchanged at just under US$60/bbl and the international Brent price is now at just under US$64/bbl.

CARBON PRICE WEAKENS
Secondary market transactions are small and soft, now back down -$2 at $40/NZU where it was for most of last week. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$2/oz from yesterday, now at US$4199/oz.

NZD FIRMS MARGINALLY
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this morning, now just under 57.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are +10 bps firmer at 49.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is at just on 62 and up +10 bps.

BITCOIN FIRM
The bitcoin price is now at US$90,928 and up +1.6% from this morning. Volatility has been moderately at just over +/- 2.1%.

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