2h agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 9:13pmMarket snapshotASX 200 futures: -0.2% to 8,694 pointsAustralian dollar: +0.1% to 64,37US centsS&P 500: -0.1% to 6,362 pointsNasdaq: +0.1% to 21,129 pointsFTSE: flat at 9,136 pointsEuroStoxx 600: flat at 550 pointsSpot gold: -1.6% to $US3,374/ounceBrent crude: +1.3% to $US73.47/barrelIron ore: +0.1% to $US99.25/tonneBitcoin: flat at $US117,174

Prices current around 7:10am AEST

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

1m agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 11:56pm

What would RBA like to see from productivity roundtable?

Wavestone Capital portfolio manager Catherine Allfrey asks what the RBA would like to see from the upcoming productivity roundtable.

Andrew Hauser says it’s not for the RBA to weigh in on.

“We take the economy as it is and deliver our mandate,” Mr Hauser says.

“They are political choices… any central bank that plays in that space risks their credibility.”

7m agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 11:50pm

How does the RBA define full employment?

Even though unemployment recently jumped from 4.1 to 4.3%, RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser says the Australian economy remains near “full employment”.

Orthodox economists define “full employment” as the level of unemployment compatible with inflation remaining within the central bank’s target range, in Australia 2-3%.

Many economists have suggested that, for whatever reason, the unemployment rate compatible with “full employment” — the NAIRU, or non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment — has fallen, perhaps to 4 per cent or less.

It seems Hauser is sticking with the RBA’s previous estimates that full employment is somewhere around 4.25-4.5%.

9m agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 11:47pm

Consumer confidence weak but hasn’t got worse: Hauser

Barrenjoey chief economist Jo Masters turns the conversation to the consumer.

Andrew Hauser notes that consumer confidence remains weak, but hasn’t got worse (or better, for that matter).

“There are reasons for optimism,” he notes, including real income growth and a pick-up in consumption growth overseas.

“This is one of the areas of debate on the board, to be honest, how much momentum there is in the economy,” Mr Hauser says.

“On balance, we’re going to continue to hope and pray and forecast that consumption growth will pick up.”

12m agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 11:45pm

Pay attention to RBA forecasts: Hauser

RBA deputy Andrew Hauser, despite earlier saying that it was relative rare for economic forecasts to be completely right, says investors (and those interested in where interest rates are heading) should pay more attention to the bank’s forecasts.

Inflation figures out yesterday were broadly in line (maybe just a touch higher) than what the bank expected when it last updated those forecasts in May.

Based on what the RBA governor has previously said, it seems that should give a green light to lower interest rates on August 12.

But, after July’s surprise hold, no-one is prepared to express too much certainty!

15m agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 11:42pm

We don’t name names, says RBA deputy governor

Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser says the RBA won’t name names of who votes what way at its monetary policy board meetings, in order to keep the focus on the policy arguments.

He says it allows for a more open debate.

18m agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 11:38pm

Labour market close to full employment: RBA’s Hauser

Mr Hauser has reiterated what the RBA governor Michele Bullock has said in the wake of a rise in unemployment shown in figures released since the last central bank meeting.

While the rise in the unemployment rate had surprised the market and economists, Mr Hauser (echoing Ms Bullock) said it was in line with the RBA’s forecasts and consistent with the “broad coming into balance” of the economy.

He says there are different views on the RBA board about exactly how tight the labour market is, but that the “labour market is close to whatever full employment means”.

You can read more on the governor’s earlier speech on inflation and employment here:

22m agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 11:35pmRBA deputy Andrew Hauser says bank not getting carried away with forecast accuracy

I am sitting in a room full of investment bankers, analysts and economists, including former RBA governor Phil Lowe who is sitting one person over from me.

We’re all listening to RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser chatting with Barrenjoey’s chief economist Jo Masters.

We’ll get to some questions towards the end, including hopefully one from me…

For the time being, the discussion started with yesterday’s inflation data, which came in almost bang in-line with the Reserve Bank’s most recent May forecasts.

But Andrew Hauser says the bank’s economists are not getting carried away with that, because it’s quite rare, and usually a bit lucky, for actual data to land so close to the forecast.

I’ll have more analysis of Hauser’s speech and Q&A.

Jo Masters and Andrew Hauser (RBA)

26m agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 11:30pm

RBA’s Hauser says tariff impact better than feared so far

Barrenjoey’s Jo Masters asks the RBA’s Andrew Hauser about tariffs — he says so far the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs has been “substantially better than feared in the worst case”.

He says the worst of threatened tariffs hasn’t eventuated, particularly in terms of retaliatory measures.

“Maybe the system globally and in Australia too is more resilient” than expected, he notes, while saying that stockpiling has also cushioned the impact.

Mr Hauser says another reason the fallout so far hasn’t been so bad could be a negative one — “it’s coming but it just hasn’t come yet”, likening it to Brexit.

“Good news that it hasn’t been as severe yet as feared… but we’re paid to worry”, he notes, and says the concern it’s just a drawn out impact is on the RBA’s mind.

33m agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 11:24pmInflation easing welcome: RBA deputy governor

Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser has framed yesterday’s inflation number as “very welcome” during a “fireside chat” with Barrenjoey’s chief economist Jo Masters in Sydney.

Inflation eased further in the June quarter, with consumer prices rising at an annual pace of 2.1 per cent, down from 2.4 per cent in the March quarter.

The “trimmed mean” measure of inflation, which is the Reserve Bank’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, also declined.

It fell from 2.9 to 2.7 per cent between March and June, which broadly matches the Reserve Bank’s forecasts from May.

You can catch up with this piece from Gareth Hutchens:

37m agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 11:19pmSouth Korean president responds to US trade agreement

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung has commented on the country’s tariff deal with the US, which was announced a short time ago by US President Donald Trump, saying it would put South Korea on an equal or better footing compared with other countries.

President Lee said the countries had agreed to set up a $US350 billion investment fund, out of which $US150 billion was aimed at a shipbuilding partnership.

In his social media post announcing the deal, Mr Trump had said the fund would be “owned and controlled” by the US and he would select the investments as president.

However, the South Korea presidential office has said there are enough safeguards in place, when asked about Mr Trump’s claims.

The 15 per cent tariff on South Korean imports will also see the auto tariff lowered from 25 per cent, the office said — noting the South Korean president had pushed for a 12.5 per cent auto tariff but Mr Trump has insisted on 15 per cent.

Reporting with Reuters

53m agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 11:04pm

Flight Centre lowers earnings guidance

Travel group Flight Centre has released some preliminary results ahead of its official results for the last financial year on August 27.

It expects underlying profit before tax to come in between $285-295 million, below its previous guidance range, citing “short-term cyclical challenges encountered late in year”.

Those factors include underperformance and additional costs in its Asia business, the escalating tensions in the Middle East in recent months, and an ongoing, global downturn in bookings to the US.

“This volatility temporarily disrupted traditional travel and booking patterns during FLT’s peak trading period as some customers either booked closer-to-home overseas holdings (In Australia, examples include China, Japan, Fiji and New Zealand), or delayed finalising travel plans,” it said in a statement to the ASX.

Flight Centre expects to deliver record total transaction value of $24.5 billion.

1h agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 10:42pm’Less dovish’ Fed sees US dollar rise

The US dollar index rose more than 1 per cent overnight, and as a result the Aussie dollar continued to decline, adding to yesterday’s downward pressure on the currency after inflation data supported the case for an RBA cut in August.

AUDUSD over last 48 hours (LSEG Refinitiv)

“Solid US economic data and hawkish comments from FOMC Chair Powell helped push the USD higher,” Commonwealth Bank economist Kristina Clifton noted.

“The post [Federal Reserve] meeting statement noted that inflation remains somewhat elevated and uncertainty about the outlook is elevated.

“In the post meeting press conference Chair Powell said that most of the committee think moderately restrictive monetary policy is appropriate right now.

“Markets are now pricing around a 50% chance of a September cut compared to almost 70% yesterday.”

NAB’s head of market economics, Tapas Strickland, noted that “key to the less dovish interpretation was the provision of no guidance for September … a quip that the Fed is already taking it easier than it should with rates … and some notion that it is still too early to assess the inflation impact”.

Mr Strickland also observed that the US earnings season shows some evidence that America “may be still in the early stages of the inflation impact from tariffs”.

“Adidas noted it was awaiting confirmation on the duties and said it will adjust prices once the final rates are known, but noted that any price hikes would only apply in the US … Procter & Gamble also noted they were going to lift prices from next month, and also said consumers are using up their pantry inventory, delaying purchases and shopping at stores less frequently.”

1h agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 10:25pmTrump announced 15 per cent tariff on South Korea

The tariff announcements continue to roll in as we just pass less than 30 hours until the August 1 deadline.

On social media, US President Donald Trump announced a “full and complete trade deal” with South Korea, with a 15 per cent tariff on South Korean imports, and no tariff on US goods going into South Korea.

“The Deal is that South Korea will give to the United States $[US]350 Billion Dollars for Investments owned and controlled by the United States, and selected by myself, as President,” the post read.

“Additionally, South Korea will purchase $[US]100 Billion Dollars of LNG, or other Energy products and, further, South Korea has agreed to invest a large sum of money for their Investment purposes.

“This sum will be announced within the next two weeks when the President of South Korea, Lee Jae Myung, comes to the White House for a Bilateral Meeting.”

1h agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 10:18pmMicrosoft shares jump in extended trade as cloud revenue rises

Shares in Microsoft have risen more than 8 per cent in after-hours trade on Wall Street, adding to a modest gain in the main session.

The tech giant said its Azure cloud-computing business had surpassed $US75 billion ($116b) in annual earnings for the first time, coming in ahead of expectation, after the division’s revenue jumped 39 per cent in the June quarter.

Analysts say the figures justify Microsoft’s investments in AI.

Wedbush analysts described the result as “beats across the board”, showing Microsoft is “[capitalising] on the AI Revolution with greater momentum for the company’s AI and cloud capabilities”.

“This was a slam-dunk quarter for MSFT with cloud and AI driving significant business transformation across every sector and industry as the company continues to [capitalise] on the AI Revolution unfolding front and [centre] but we believe Microsoft is just hitting its next phase of [monetisation] on the AI front and more enterprises are accelerating their AI budgets and strategic footprint,” the typically bullish tech analysts wrote in a note.

1h agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 10:01pmDonald Trump stands by August 1 tariff deadline

US President Donald Trump has taken to social media this morning, saying the August 1 deadline for the imposition of higher, “reciprocal” tariffs stands.

Donald Trump social post (Truth Social)Donald Trump social post (Truth Social)

Mr Trump continues to negotiate with world leaders and announce tariff rates — overnight he said the US will impose a 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods from August 1, along with an unspecified “penalty” for buying Russian weapons and oil.

The US tariffs are due to return to the “liberation day” levels announced in April, after an extended pause, but that will mean executive orders need to be signed over the next 30 hours.

2h agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 9:47pmWe’ve made no decisions about September: US Fed chair

US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said the central bank’s monetary policy-setting committee has “made no decisions about September”, which is when it will next meet, after keeping interest rates on hold overnight.

Mr Powell said the Fed is focused on controlling inflation and added that the risk of rising price pressures from the Trump administration’s trade and other policies remains too high for the central bank to begin loosening its grip until more information is collected.

He said the Fed was still in the early stages of understanding how Trump’s rewrite of import taxes and other policy changes will unfold in terms of inflation, jobs and economic growth.

“You have to think of this as still quite early days,” Mr Powell said in a press conference after the release of the Fed’s latest policy statement.

“There’s quite a lot of data coming in before the next meeting. Will it be dispositive? … It is really hard to say.”

Jerome Powell speaking at press conference (Reuters: Jonathan Ernst)

The latest policy decision was made after a 9-2 vote by the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, with two Fed governors dissenting for the first time in more than 30 years.

Both vice-chairs for supervision — Michelle Bowman and governor Christopher Waller, who has been mentioned as a possible nominee to replace Mr Powell when his term expires next May — were appointed to the board by Trump and “preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by one-quarter of a percentage point at this meeting,” the Fed’s policy statement said.

Reporting with Reuters

2h agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 9:27pmUS interest rates on hold as tariff impact plays out

Good morning, I’ll be joining you through the morning for the latest on markets, and it’s the eve of the (current) deadline for Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff rates to come into effect.

But on Wall Street overnight, it was interest rates driving the action.

The S&P 500 closed in the red and the Dow lost 0.4 per cent, as the US Federal Reserve left rates unchanged.

Fed chair Jerome Powell didn’t bow to fairly constant pressure from the US president for steep rate cuts and his post-meeting comments instead dampened expectations for a cut in September — pointing to the potential economic fallout of the Trump administration’s trade policies.

ASX futures indicate the local share market is also set to fall at the open.

Locally, there’s also some central bank speak coming up, with RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser appearing at a “fireside chat” in Sydney at 9:20am AEST.

A few economic data points will be released later this morning, including retail sales and housing credit.

Standby!

Loading