Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you’re torn between two similar players and simply don’t know which one to start, start the player with the superior matchup.

Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?

Editor’s Picks

2 Related

Our matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon season totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.

“Adj. FPA,” or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players’ weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it’s unfavorable. Also, remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover a team’s personnel at that position.

Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings’ formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my — and the ESPN fantasy staff’s — most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.

Quarterbacks

Matchups highlight: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (versus Tennessee Titans). While he has averaged only 14.6 fantasy points in his three starts since returning from a toe injury, Purdy has also had to tangle with tough matchups in two of those games: the No. 7 in quarterback Adjusted FPA Carolina Panthers and No. 11 Cleveland Browns in what were windy conditions. A matchup with the Titans is his softest yet, as in their four games since their Week 10 bye, they’ve surrendered 89.14 fantasy points combined (or 22.2 per game) to Davis Mills, Sam Darnold, Trevor Lawrence and Shedeur Sanders. Purdy has a greater Total QBR (69.1) than any of them and a better passer rating (87.7) than all but Darnold (103.8).

Others to like: Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (versus Atlanta Falcons, Thursday Night Football); Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (at New York Giants).

Matchup to avoid: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (versus Minnesota Vikings). He has done quite the job rallying his Cowboys back into the playoff hunt, placing fourth in fantasy points among quarterbacks (259.28), fifth in points per game (19.9) and first in Total QBR (73.4). Prescott’s task gets considerably tougher this week, however, facing a Vikings defense that has is third toughest against quarterbacks for the season. Over the past five weeks, they’ve held Lamar Jackson, Caleb Williams, Jordan Love, Darnold and Daniels to a combined 39.86 fantasy points (8.0 per game).

DEF to
avoidOpp.RkAdj.
FPA DEF to
exploitOpp.RkAdj.
FPA@DAL

1

-8.9 @SF

32

7.5ARI

2

-7.3 ATL

31

5.7@KC

3

-7.1 MIN

30

4.9@DEN

4

-5.7 @TB

29

4.7CAR

5

-5.3 WSH

28

3.3LV

6

-4.7 @LAR

27

3.1@PIT

7

-4.3 @NYG

26

2.5@NO

8

-3.5 BAL

25

1.3IND

9

-3.3 TEN

24

1.1@PHI

10

-3.2 @CIN

23

0.3@CHI

11

-3.0 DET

22

-0.6LAC

12

-2.5 CLE

21

-0.9NYJ

12

-2.5 GB

20

-1.0@SEA

14

-2.4 BUF

19

-1.0MIA

15

-1.9 @HOU

18

-1.1@NE

16

-1.9 @JAX

17

-1.2Running backsplay

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Matchups highlight: Woody Marks, Houston Texans (versus Arizona Cardinals). Though his fantasy production over the last five weeks hasn’t been eye popping (10.7 points per game), Marks has orchestrated a near takeover of the Texans’ backfield. During that time, he has played 72% of the offensive snaps while averaging 20 touches per game, whereas Nick Chubb has played 20% and averaged 5.2 touches. That suits Marks well for this plus matchup, against a Cardinals defense that has seen five different running backs exceed 16 fantasy points the past four weeks alone, including 43.8 to the Los Angeles Rams‘ Kyren Williams/Blake Corum dynamic duo in Week 14.

Others to like: Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (versus New York Jets); TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots (versus Buffalo Bills).

Matchup to avoid: Kyren Williams, Rams (versus Detroit Lions). He and Corum form a dynamic duo, indeed, but Corum’s emergence has detracted from Williams’ former top-shelf fantasy value and rendered the latter closer to a matchup play. Over the Rams’ past seven games, Williams has averaged 14.4 rushing attempts and 15.6 touches, and Corum has averaged 10.3 and 10.7, but Corum was the more productive fantasy running back over the past two weeks (40.2 points to Williams’ 30.9). That’s an issue when facing the Lions, who are second toughest against running backs for the season and held Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Javonte Williams to a combined 34.8 fantasy points (11.6 per game) over the past four weeks.

DEF to
avoidOpp.RkAdj.
FPA DEF to
exploitOpp.RkAdj.
FPA@PIT

1

-5.3 @HOU

32

8.8IND

2

-4.9 @CHI

31

7.5@LAR

3

-4.9 @NYG

30

7.3BUF

4

-4.6 @JAX

29

6.7NYJ

5

-4.6 WSH

28

6.1@SF

6

-3.4 @NO

27

5.4GB

7

-3.2 @NE

26

5.4LAC

8

-3.0 @PHI

25

4.3CAR

9

-2.9 ATL

24

3.0ARI

10

-2.0 @SEA

23

2.8CLE

11

-1.6 @TB

22

2.4DET

12

-1.6 TEN

21

2.1MIA

13

-1.2 BAL

20

1.6@DEN

14

-0.9 LV

19

1.1@DAL

15

-0.8 MIN

18

0.7@CIN

16

-0.4 @KC

17

0.5Wide receivers

Matchups highlight: Justin Jefferson, Vikings (at Cowboys). It wasn’t long ago that examining Jefferson’s matchups was a laughable exercise, as he was as automatic a starter as they come. In his past five games, however — as J.J. McCarthy has both struggled and missed time due to injury — Jefferson’s fantasy production has plummeted, as he has totaled 33.1 fantasy points with a 23.9% target share to rank outside the top 30 among wide receivers in either category. Consider this matchup a rebound opportunity for the onetime No. 1 overall fantasy football pick, with the Cowboys having been the worst schedule-adjusted defense against wide receivers for the season, not to mention third worst since the trade deadline when they made moves to bolster the unit.

Others to like: Emeka Egbuka, Buccaneers (versus Falcons, Thursday Night Football); Jauan Jennings, 49ers (versus Titans); Chimere Dike, Titans (at 49ers).

Matchup to avoid: Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos (versus Green Bay Packers). This game has the makings of a more defensive minded affair, with both teams ranked top-10 in points allowed, yards allowed and passing yards allowed for the season. Sutton has had his moments this year, six times exceeding 15 fantasy points, but he has been inconsistent and often subject to his matchups. The Packers represent one of his toughest this year, having allowed only seven different wide receivers exceed 15 fantasy points, and only two of them in the past five weeks.

DEF to
avoidOpp.RkAdj.
FPA DEF to
exploitOpp.RkAdj.
FPA@DAL

1

-14.9 @TB

32

11.5BAL

2

-12.9 @LAR

31

10.0LV

3

-12.3 MIN

30

7.4CAR

4

-8.9 CLE

29

5.3IND

5

-8.6 @PIT

28

4.5@DEN

6

-7.4 @SEA

27

3.7@CHI

7

-7.2 @SF

26

3.6ARI

8

-6.4 @CIN

25

3.3@HOU

9

-5.5 TEN

24

3.1@KC

10

-5.4 WSH

23

1.8@NE

11

-3.8 GB

22

0.9MIA

12

-3.4 DET

21

0.6NYJ

13

-2.6 @PHI

20

-0.1LAC

14

-1.7 ATL

19

-0.3@JAX

15

-1.6 BUF

18

-0.4@NO

16

-1.3 @NYG

17

-1.2Tight ends

Matchups highlight: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (at Cincinnati Bengals). There’s no more automatic matchup than tight ends against the Bengals. They have seen a tight end score 10-plus fantasy points against them in each of their past nine games and saw 11 total score that many in that time span; the Seattle Seahawks are the only other team to have seen 11 tight ends score 10-plus points for the entire season. Yes, Isaiah Likely was the Ravens tight end to do this to the Bengals in their Week 15 meeting, but this is — pardon the pun — likely to be a higher-scoring game in the rematch, and Andrews is the one with both the fantasy points per game (9.2-7.2) and target share (17.1%-16.5%) advantages between the two over the past five weeks.

Matchup to avoid: Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders (at Philadelphia Eagles). This isn’t to say that he’s a must-sit in a fantasy playoff week, as he’s second in fantasy points per game (18.3) and fourth in target share (23.7%) among tight ends in six games since returning from a knee injury. It is to point out that he has a lower ceiling than usual for this week, if that weighs in your lineup decision-making. The opposing Eagles have been the toughest defense against tight ends in terms of fantasy points per target (1.3o), the third best in fantasy points allowed per game (8.6) and fourth best in Adjusted FPA (minus-4.0) for the season.

DEF to
avoidOpp.RkAdj.
FPA DEF to
exploitOpp.RkAdj.
FPA@CIN

1

-6.7 BAL

32

11.3@PHI

2

-5.8 @NYG

31

5.7ARI

3

-4.8 GB

30

4.4ATL

4

-3.8 @SF

29

3.7WSH

5

-3.6 IND

28

3.6LV

6

-3.3 TEN

27

3.2@NE

7

-2.9 DET

26

1.6@DEN

8

-2.9 @PIT

25

1.6@DAL

9

-2.7 BUF

24

1.5@LAR

10

-2.6 @HOU

23

0.9MIN

11

-2.3 @TB

22

0.5@JAX

12

-2.2 @KC

21

0.1@CHI

13

-2.1 @NO

20

-0.6LAC

14

-1.8 @SEA

19

-0.7NYJ

15

-1.5 CAR

18

-0.8MIA

16

-1.3 CLE

17

-1.1