The closure of border crossings between Thailand and Cambodia is inflicting heavy damage on six Northeastern provinces, with initial trade losses estimated at around 50 billion baht – and the bill could climb to 80 billion baht per year if the crisis drags on.
Sorathep Rojpotjanaruch, President of the Restaurant Business Club and Honorary Advisor to the Thai Hostel Association, told that seven months of border tension and prolonged closures have hit Thai exports to Cambodia, which are normally worth about 70 billion baht a year, while imports from Cambodia total only around 20 billion baht.
That means the border shutdown has wiped out roughly 50 billion baht in net trade.
While the impact on Thailand’s overall GDP may be limited – about 0.2% – the damage is highly concentrated in six Isaan border provinces, he said. The Commerce Ministry is now trying to find alternative markets to ease the pain for local businesses.
If the conflict lasts more than three months, estimated trade losses would rise from 50 billion to around 80 billion baht per year, Sorathep warned. If the situation ends within 10–20 days, the fallout should remain manageable, but any longer will sharply increase the risk that Cambodia turns to Vietnamese consumer goods instead. At present, about 80% of Cambodia’s consumer products in this category are imported from Thailand.
On the investment side, Thai businesses in Cambodia are mainly in consumer goods, agriculture and oil. PTT has already withdrawn entirely, so most of the effect is on the private sector, with limited impact on Thailand’s macroeconomy. However, uncertainty may push some foreign firms to relocate production back to Thailand, even though large players have yet to make firm decisions.