The Carolina Panthers‘ path to their first playoff berth in eight years is a relatively straightforward one. (Emphasis on the “relatively.”)
Entering Week 16 at 7-7, the Panthers can only punch their ticket to the postseason by way of a division title. The same goes for their upcoming opponent in the 7-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with whom they currently sit side-by-side atop the NFC South.
If they remain tied through the final three weeks of regular-season play, we’ll have to turn to their head-to-head records and then their divisional records—which are to be determined in their matchups on Sunday and in Week 18. And if those don’t suffice in that situation, then we stop with the common games tiebreaker—which Tampa has already clinched.
So, in essence, the lone playoff spot for the NFC South will come down to the games involving only Carolina and Tampa Bay. No outcomes outside of theirs will matter.
With that being established—here, even including the most outlandish ones, is every possible playoff-clinching scenario for the Panthers heading into this weekend’s massive showdown:
Simplest scenarios
No. 1
Win vs. Tampa Bay (Week 16)Win or tie at Tampa Bay (Week 18)
No. 2
Win or tie vs. Tampa Bay (Week 16)Win at Tampa Bay (Week 18)Not-as-simple scenarios
No. 3
Win vs. Tampa Bay (Week 16)Win vs. Seattle (Week 17)Tampa Bay loss or tie at Miami (Week 17)
No. 4
Win vs. Tampa Bay (Week 16)Win vs. Seattle (Week 17)Win or tie at Tampa Bay (Week 18)
No. 5
Win vs. Tampa Bay (Week 16)Win or tie vs. Seattle (Week 17)Win or tie at Tampa Bay (Week 18)
No. 6
Win or tie vs. Tampa Bay (Week 16)Win or tie vs. Seattle (Week 17)Win at Tampa Bay (Week 18)Complicated scenarios
No. 7
Win vs. Tampa Bay (Week 16)Win or tie vs. Seattle (Week 17)Tampa Bay loss or tie at Miami (Week 17)Win or tie at Tampa Bay (Week 18)
No. 8
Win or tie vs. Tampa Bay (Week 16)Win or tie vs. Seattle (Week 17)Tampa Bay loss or tie at Miami (Week 17)Win at Tampa Bay (Week 18)More complicated scenarios
No. 9
Loss or tie vs. Tampa Bay (Week 16)Win vs. Seattle (Week 17)Tampa Bay loss or tie at Miami (Week 17)Win at Tampa Bay (Week 18)
No. 10
Loss or tie vs. Tampa Bay (Week 16)Win or tie vs. Seattle (Week 17)Tampa Bay loss at Miami (Week 17)Win at Tampa Bay (Week 18)Most outlandish scenarios
No. 11
Tie vs. Tampa Bay (Week 16)Win vs. Seattle (Week 17)Tampa Bay loss or tie at Miami (Week 17)Tie at Tampa Bay (Week 18)
No. 12
Tie vs. Tampa Bay (Week 16)Win or tie vs. Seattle (Week 17)Tampa Bay loss at Miami (Week 17)Tie at Tampa Bay (Week 18)
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