A lot happened in a short time for the Chicago Blackhawks.
They were better than anyone could have imagined to start the season. The sample size grew to where it felt real, even if their PDO was high. Their youth then began to show. Inconsistencies popped up and the results followed. As the Blackhawks were working through it — they had one of their better all-around games on Dec. 10 — Connor Bedard suffered a severe shoulder injury on Dec. 12, and four games later, Frank Nazar was struck by a puck in the face and declared out for a month.
What had been a slowly descending boulder, which felt like it could possibly be stopped, picked up a ton of speed with Bedard’s injury and now feels unstoppable given Nazar’s. Not many teams can withstand having their top two centers injured for that amount of time, but the Blackhawks especially can’t given where they are in their rebuild.
The Blackhawks are left with such a small margin for error. Eight seconds went wrong in Toronto, and that cost them the game. On Tuesday, they played fine and could have won against the Philadelphia Flyers, but it’s not surprising they didn’t. That’s their reality. Other teams are more likely to cash in on their chances because they’re more skilled. There’s definitely a case to be made that there hasn’t been a more valuable player to his team this season than Bedard; the Blackhawks have scored a total of eight goals in five games without Bedard in the lineup, and four of those came in one game.
Which brings us to the harsh reality: The Blackhawks are in last place in the NHL. Thanksgiving is often a solid barometer of the NHL standings, and the Blackhawks were 2 points out of a wild-card spot then. A month later, the Blackhawks have gone 3-9-1. Getting back to a .500 points percentage isn’t impossible, but it’s going to get more challenging with each loss. The Blackhawks would have to win four straight to return there, and odds are against them. With a grueling schedule in terms of both competition and volume coming up after the holiday break and Bedard’s and Nazar’s returns still TBD, it’s likely to get much worse long before it gets better.
The Stanley Cup playoffs were always a long shot this season. There were so many “ifs” that had to go the Blackhawks’ way for that to happen. A lot of them, especially Bedard and Spencer Knight, did go in their favor early on. But with the Central Division being the class of the league, enough parity throughout the whole league and the Blackhawks being as young as they are, it always felt like they might divert down this path at some point. The slide has just accelerated over the last few weeks.
This season was never supposed to be only about this season, though. Since being hired, Jeff Blashill has spoken countless times about the process this team has to go through and the necessary steps to become the team it wants to be. Blashill is a believer of development and winning going hand in hand. He was marrying the two for a while there. His two best players were young, and he could slot the young players where they were best suited — sometimes, in the case of someone like Sam Rinzel, in Rockford to get back on track.
If Bedard and Nazar are in the lineup and they’re getting a ton of ice time and opportunity, it’s easy to see how development and winning can be tied together. But even in losses, it was easy to see how the Blackhawks were relying more and more on Kyle Davidson’s draft picks. That also trickled down to players like Ryan Greene, who got top-line opportunities because he could complement Bedard, and Oliver Moore, who was at times promoted to the top six. Greene and Moore weren’t the play-drivers, but they were holding their own, learning to play in the NHL and developing. You could connect the dots.
Add in Knight’s rise this season and all the young defensemen, and fans were no longer forced to imagine what the future could look like for the Blackhawks — it was starting to play out on the ice. Mark Lazerus was giving Davidson the chance to say “I told you so” just three weeks ago. The last few weeks don’t change what happened before.
But what the Blackhawks are going through makes Blashill’s process and overall player development more difficult. For them to play a simple game and remain competitive, Blashill (like most NHL coaches) has a tendency to lean on veteran forwards, which for the Blackhawks means Jason Dickinson, Tyler Bertuzzi, Ryan Donato, Ilya Mikheyev, André Burakovsky and Teuvo Teräväinen. They provide stability and give the Blackhawks a chance.
For example, the Blackhawks led 17-4 in shot attempts and 10-2 in scoring chances at five-on-five with Dickinson on the ice against the Flyers, according to Natural Stat Trick. The Blackhawks didn’t score on any of their chances, and the Flyers did on one of theirs, but you can understand why Dickinson’s presence feels like a safer bet for Blashill. The Blackhawks are trying to remain in games for as long as possible and give themselves a shot over 60 minutes. The veterans understand how to do that. There is more predictability to their games. That’s why they logged the top five-on-five ice time among forwards Tuesday.
Veterans like Connor Murphy and Ilya Mikheyev are playing key roles for the Blackhawks with two young stars out. (Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)
The downside is it comes at the cost of playing the young forwards. Nick Lardis played 7:03 at five-on-five Tuesday, Moore 7:25, Colton Dach 7:52 and Greene 10:25. (Greene was taking faceoffs for other lines, so he got a bit more.) Only Sam Lafferty and Dominic Toninato played less. Dach had some early promising shifts, but he was tied to the fourth line’s minutes. Although on paper putting Moore, Greene and Lardis together would seem like an exciting approach to the lineup, it can also work against them if that line isn’t consistently in the rotation, like Tuesday.
Blashill was asked specifically about Lardis and Moore on Tuesday, and he explained how both are feeling their way in the NHL. His specific observations made sense, but it goes back to debates of development. Do those players need to be playing more to work through that, or are they better off in Rockford playing consistently?
Coming out of the holiday break, there is a bigger-picture question Blashill and his staff have to consider: What do they want to achieve until Bedard and Nazar return?
They can prioritize the veteran forwards and hope some of those games go their way. That feels like a roll of the dice; the offense is what it is, and Knight has to be near perfect. Just putting all the young players together and playing them a ton probably isn’t the answer either. They’re not fully ready for that. Lardis’ offensive upside is probably higher than anyone in the lineup right now, but he could use veterans to help him along for the time being. Moore, Greene and Dach are the same. They have all played in top-six roles this season and just need the proper support and opportunity.
It’s no different than how the young defensemen have been handled this season. Blashill has done well putting them in positions to succeed, partnering them with logical choices and giving them more and more opportunities. Artyom Levshunov led the team in ice time again Tuesday and is far from a finished product, but Blashill is letting him figure it out with consistent ice time. Louis Crevier and Wyatt Kaiser have thrived with more opportunities, too.
The Blackhawks’ season may be unsalvageable from a playoff standpoint. But there is still plenty for them to gain with their remaining 46 games. Bedard and Nazar will return for some, and progress will be easier to gauge again. But until then, these games can still matter, even if it’s not in the standings. What approach the Blackhawks take Saturday against the Dallas Stars in their game out of the break could be revealing.