PROGRESS IN GREEN INNOVATION
Looking at the bigger picture, however, the Paris Agreement has put us in a far better position than we would have been without it.
In October 2015, Climate Action Tracker, an independent science-based project, calculated that policies and actions at the time put the world on track for 3.6°C of warming by 2100. Projected warming is now 2.6°C. Though that’s still too high for comfort, it signals huge amounts of progress.
By creating “a whole new idea of going to zero” emissions, as Niklas Hohne, co-founder of NewClimate Institute, explained to me, the Paris Agreement also sparked a flurry of innovation. If researchers didn’t believe that anyone would want green technologies, then why would they invest time and money in them? The accord sent a signal that appetite existed for net-zero materials and processes.
Ever since, research and money have been flowing toward green transition sectors and at an ever-increasing pace.
For example, the EU’s Innovation Fund, created to help the bloc meet its commitments under the treaty, has supported the development of batteries, carbon-negative cement and advanced recycling.
But what happens to fossil-fuel emissions will ultimately dictate the fate of the planet. Demand remains at an all-time high, and though the International Energy Agency forecasts that fossil-fuel use will peak before 2030, it also acknowledges that if governments abandon their stated intentions, oil and gas demand will continue to rise.
Still, everyone I spoke to was optimistic that emissions would likely peak by 2030, although that’s later than many climate scientists would like. Hohne believes that with renewables’ increasing availability and decreasing costs, we can reduce carbon dioxide pollution much faster than previously thought.