Jan. 2, 2026, 9:15 a.m. ET

Perhaps an unpopular pick, but Alexander Volkov did not do enough to beat Jailton Almeida at UFC 321.

Volkov (39-11 MMA, 13-6 UFC) picked up a split decision win over Almeida (22-4 MMA, 8-2 UFC) this past October at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. It was a pivotal heavyweight clash between two top contenders vying for a title shot.

You may not be a fan of Almeida’s lay and pray style, but having top position for 10 out of 15 minutes is the definition of controlling a fight. ‘But Volkov outstruck Almeida and did more damage from the bottom’ is the argument many are providing and the stats back that analogy up. Was the damage enough though? Let’s take a look at the fight round by round.

Round 1, Almeida immediately shoots for a takedown the second the fight starts and he gets it. The first two strikes Volkov threw were elbows to the back of Almeida’s head which resulted in warnings from referee Marc Goddard. Almeida worked hard for side control, but Volkov resisted. The fans started to boo. Almeida got a warning from Goddard to advance position as he grabbed Volkov’s wrist.

He continued the shoulder pressure with no strike attempts. Volkov swept Almeida with two minutes left in the round, and threw a few short elbows. He threw more punches. Almeida grabbed Volkov’s leg to try and work his way up, but Volkov denied him and threw more punches and elbows. Certainly more strikes and damage from Volkov to win him Round 1.

Round 2, Almeida was met with a combination, but he immediately landed the takedown 30 seconds into the round. Once again, Almeida gets a warning to advance position. There’s a punch thrown by Almeida. The Brazilian transitioned to Volkov’s back and Volkov used that as an opportunity to get back up.

However, Almeida was able to push him back to the mat and get top control. With 90 seconds left in the round, Goddard stood up both fighters for lack of activity on Almeida’s part. But, right back down they went! Almeida wasted no time to drive Volkov back down to the mat. Volkov grabbed Almeida’s arm for a kimura attempt to ride out the round. That round goes to Almeida and Volkov’s corner acknowledged it.

So far, all three judges have agreed that Round 1 went to Volkov, and Round 2 went to Almeida. Now lets go to Round 3 where the controversy lies. Almeida attempted a takedown right away once again, but as soon as he got Volkov down, Volkov reversed and grabbed his leg. Volkov threw numerous knees in the clinch, but Almeida broke free and landed a takedown.

With three minutes and 40 seconds remaining in the round, Almeida found himself in top position landing a few punches. Volkov landed a few short shots from bottom. Volkov threw up a triangle attempt, but Almeida was wise to it right away. Almeida separated for a second and landed a punch, before getting back on top of Volkov. Almeida transitioned to Volkov’s back and got the hooks in. He ended up back on top, but Goddard stood both fighters back up. Sorry ref, Almeida went right back to the takedown and got it. Fight ends with Almeida on top and Volkov with a bloody nose.

Two judges gave Volkov Round 3 and the other gave it to Almeida. Yes, the stats have Volkov heavily outstriking Almeida, but did he really inflict that much damage? A prime Tony Ferguson from bottom type of damage? The reality is no. The start of Round 3 looked promising for Volkov with the reversal and knees in the clinch, but like him or not, bored or not, Almeida was in control for the majority of the round, and Volkov provided no threat off his back.

This felt more like a punishment to Almeida than a reward to Volkov. Almeida had over two rounds of control time and went 7 of 9 in takedown attempts in what should have been a 29-28 decision win for him. One judge giving the fight to Volkov, maybe. But two? That was surprising. Oh well, perhaps this was justice for Volkov after a controversial decision loss to Ciryl Gane at UFC 310.