Goods-3K versus -19K last monthService +44K versus -13K last monthsmall business +9K vs -120K prior (6 of the last 7 months have been negative)medium businesses +34K vs +51K last monthlarge businesses +2K vs +39K last monthWages for job stayers +4.4% vs +4.5% last monthWages for job changers 6.6% vs 6.3% last month
The initial market reaction to the report has been mum but we’ve seen some small bids in bonds.
“Small establishments recovered from November job losses with positive end-of-year hiring, even as large
employers pulled back,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP
Sector changes.
Education and health +39K vs +30K priorLeisure hospitality +24K vs +13K priorTrade transportation and utilities +11K vs +1K priorFinancial activities +6K vs -9K priorProfessional business services -29K vs- 26K prior
AI is coming for the ‘professional business services’ jobs first. As for much of the year, it’s been government-related healthcare jobs holding up while private sector jobs struggle.
The next Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) non-farm payrolls report (Employment Situation) is scheduled for Friday, January 9 at 8:30 am ET as we slowly catch up on economic data after the US government shutdown. The bad news is that there is already talk of another shutdown.
ADP employment chart