American boxing great Paulie Malignaggi says a “psychotic” Nikita Tszyu is set to finish Michael Zerafa tonight – with punters also now “hammering” bookies over the same prediction.
N. Tszyu vs Zerafa | Friday 16 Jan from 7pm AEDT | The trash talk and bitterness come to a head when Nikita Tszyu steps into the ring to face Michael Zerafa in one of the most anticipated fights in Australian boxing history. | Order Now with Main Event on Kayo Sports.
The revelation comes as a fighter famed for dropping Tszyu twice — and almost handing him the first loss of his hyped career — is also now backing ‘The Butcher’ to knock out Zerafa, and after recently being flown into Sydney as a key sparring partner.
Fresh off his WBC Grand Prix win in Saudi Arabia, Dylan Biggs has told Fox Sports Australia Zerafa is in danger of being “stopped real early” in what shapes as the greatest Australian grudge match this decade.
Aussie bookmakers have also confirmed a late plunge on the same result in tonight’s Brisbane Entertainment Centre showdown, with Sportsbet taking four times more money on a Tszyu KO than any other method of victory.
Elsewhere, Malignaggi has also explained why he is backing a Tszyu KO, hailing the “psychotic mindset” of a fighter who, he insists, is the type of guy who could one day walk away from a $20M purse.
SPARRING PARTNER’S KO WARNING
Back in 2023, Biggs almost earned one of the greatest upsets in Australian boxing after dropping Tszyu in the first round of their hyped Australian title fight – and after having also downed ‘The Butcher’ in a sparring session years earlier.
While Tszyu would eventually recover to win the belt by stoppage himself, the teams have stayed in close contact, with Biggs recently jetting into Sydney to help the 27-year-old with preparations for Zerafa.
The surprise union also comes with Biggs having gone undefeated in all eight fights since the Tszyu loss — including five straight this past year alone as he went and won the WBC Grand Prix middleweight tournament in Saudi Arabia.
READ MORE
Talking Pts: Awkward NRL question 133kg must answer; reality ‘broken’ Zerafa can’t escape
‘Are you serious?’: Tim Tszyu US ‘megafight’ rumour emerges; Zerafa ‘kryptonite’ exposed
‘Dumb, stupid’: US greats deliver wild take on ‘caveman’ Tszyu… with huge HOF call
‘Don’t know what he’s doing’: Zerafa grilled by Choc, Horn over ‘terrible’ bad boy move
BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA – JANUARY 15: Nikita Tszyu and Michael Zerafa face off during the weigh in at King George Square on January 15, 2026 in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images
So as for how different Tszyu is now compared to the guy he fought in 2023?
“He’s definitely a lot faster,” Biggs said. “And I think it’s that speed which will prove his advantage.
“When we sparred, I couldn’t have asked for better rounds.
“And it’s why I’m thinking Nikita not only wins, but has a good chance of stopping Zerafa early.
“I just think his youth and speed will prove his advantage.
“Nikita’s now putting [his punches] together that bit faster, which matters in a game of inches, or milliseconds.
“And while Zerafa has had some really good fights at world level, I think the youth, the speed gets Nikita through.
“With that younger body too, he recovers faster, can think quicker on his feet. So it may not matter that doesn’t have the ring IQ of Zerafa, or experience.
“But we’ll have to see on the night.”
Big NAS goes face-to-face with Latimore | 03:11
BETTING PLUNGE
The greatest Australian grudge match this decade is no longer a 50/50 fight.
Speaking with Fox Sports Australia on fight day, Sportsbet’s Joel Caine revealed a Tszyu KO/TKO has been wound into $3 after being “hammered” by punters, adding big money is also coming for the finish in rounds one, two and three.
The late Tszyu plunge has also seen him wound into the $1.76 betting favourite – with Zerafa now out to $2.20.
The lopsided takings are a surprise given a host of Australia’s biggest fight names are backing Zerafa – among them the likes of Jeff Fenech, Anthony Mundine, Billy Dib and Jeff Horn.
American great Shawn Porter is also backing Zerafa by decision.
Speaking at the start of fight week, and when both fighters were still $1.96 in betting, Fenech said he was going with Zerafa – albeit with a caveat.
“If we’re going on boxing ability – Michael Zerafa,” Fenech said. “That’s my pick.
“But it also depends on the real Michael showing up.
“Because that’s the scary thing.
“The greatest Michael Zerafa I’ve seen hasn’t turned up a lot of times.”
Elsewhere, Dib said: “I think Mick is going to do a job on him.
“I just think he’ll be too much.
“And look, Nikita could prove me wrong.
“If he does too, his career catapults.
“But right now, we don’t know if Nikita Tszyu is world class.
“He hasn’t proved himself at that level yet.
“He’s also very hittable.
“So I’m not going to sit here and tell you what a great fighter he is because he’s still unproven.”
Yet Aussie punters are siding with Malignaggi, and now loading up on ‘The Butcher’.
In head-to-head betting, the online bookmaker is also holding twice the cash on Tszyu.
HEATED Final Face-Off! Tszyu v Zerafa | 03:44
PSYCHO CLAIM
Speaking on Main Event this week, Malignaggi branded Tszyu a “psycho”, while also suggesting his lack of care around so much of the hype for this event also works heavily in his favour.
“Nikita was asked at the press conference about winning it for his family,” the American started, “and he said ‘what does that even mean?’.
“I’m telling you, that’s an advantage.
“We have a saying in Sicilian, and I’ll translate it for you: The water doesn’t wet him and the air doesn’t dry him.
“Nikita doesn’t care.
“Nothing affects him.
“He almost has a psychotic mindset.
“He seems too calm, but there’s a psycho behind it.
“And the way he fights? That’s not just an idea.
“He’s a psycho.
“You watch some of his fights, he gets up off the canvas and fights on ferociously.
“But then you ask him questions and you’re like ‘what?’.”
Soon after, Malignaggi continued: “You know what type of person he is? He’s so off in a lot of ways, and that makes him on.
Mundine breaks down Tszyu v Zerafa | 03:12
“He’s been away from the sport, comes back to the sport, I heard he randomly got married … he’s a very random, in the moment, free spirited person.
“This is the type of guy who may build up his career, have a $20 million fight on the table – and walk away.
“He’s that kind of guy.
“And in that way, he doesn’t feel the pressure.”
Asked by Main Event’s Ben Damon during the round table discussion if he ever wished he had been the guy Tszyu is now, Malignaggi continued: “Early on, I was that guy.
“Early on everyone is that guy.
“You have this self belief.
“I walked into a boxing gym, my mom thought I was crazy, my grandma thought I was crazy … I’d had one amateur fight and said ‘I’m going to be a world champion’.
“It’s that ignorance is bliss …”
ZERAFA REMATCH CLAIM
While Malignaggi is tipping a Tszyu victory, he also suggested Zerafa could potentially fight the Tszyu family up to three times should he go and cause what is now the betting upset.
“There are opportunities there for a Tim Tszyu fight,” he said this week. “Opportunities for a Nikita rematch, too.
“If Zerafa wins, he puts himself in position to fight both Tszyus.
“You beat Nikita, and fight Tim.
“Then even if you lose that fight, you can always do the rematch with Nikita.”
Follow all the action in our live blog below. If you can’t see it click HERE.