Following its December rate hike, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% on Friday. The markets will closely listen to Governor Ueda’s assessment of how recent weakness in the JPY might affect inflation. Also, the BoJ will release its latest quarterly outlook report. GDP forecasts for FY25 and FY26 are expected to rise due to fiscal stimulus and robust global chip demand. Regarding the inflation outlook, government subsidies could ease some pressure temporarily, but higher wages, combined with a weaker JPY, are likely to keep core inflation above 2% in FY26 and FY27. The BoJ remains open to further rate hikes. But it won’t rush its next move if we’re right that inflation will moderate at least by the first half of 2026. Export growth in December is expected to be driven by the semiconductor and automotive sectors. Driven by strong exports and a recovery in investment, 4Q25 GDP is projected to rebound. December inflation, meanwhile, is expected to moderate significantly due to energy subsidy initiatives.
