What’s the future best case and worst case for Alexis Lafrenière and Owen Power?

It’s easy to get excited about rising stars. It’s also easy to let expectations spiral out of control. That’s especially true for No. 1 picks.

Alexis Lafrenière and Owen Power, who were drafted first in 2020 and 2021, were expected to develop into some of the best players in the world. It comes with the territory of being drafted in that position; players are selected there because they are thought to have 1) an elite ceiling and 2) the chops to hit impact status quickly.

Years after being drafted first, the reality is neither player has lived up to the (sometimes unrealistically high) hype surrounding them. But based on aging curves, Lafrenière and Power are only just approaching the primes of their careers. So what does the future hold? Looking at similar players can help forecast that.

No two NHLers are the same. Every player has their own set of attributes and skills, and it makes for a unique set of traits. Within all of that individuality, though, there are ways to reasonably spot similar traits. Playing styles can be alike, whether players are grouped as net-front threats, snipers, playmakers, play-drivers or defensive stalwarts. Shared traits can extend to a player’s physical attributes or their usage.

Those traits all build toward a player’s similarity score, and using Dom Lusczyszyn’s model, it can outline player comps that show the best- and worst-case scenarios for a player.

Alexis Lafrenière

Six seasons later, it’s clear that Lafrenière isn’t in the same stratosphere as other recent No. 1 picks.

His situation didn’t help; his playing time was limited in his first few seasons, and a lot of turnover behind the bench in six years likely complicated things further. The Rangers’ player development track record is as shaky as it gets, even with other top-10 picks. Some of it is because the team basically battled two philosophies in those critical early seasons for Lafrenière — developing the talent that was a part of their rebuild and trying to contend — even though those two ideas should have gone hand-in-hand to extend the window.

Expectations for Lafrenière have to be recalibrated. The best-case scenario sees Lafrenière becoming the next Dylan Strome or Pavel Buchnevich, and the worst-case scenario is following the footsteps of Tomas Fleischmann and Christian Dvorak.

In Strome, it’s the profile of another somewhat-late bloomer (based on his draft pedigree) who has turned into a capable top-six forward. With Buchnevich, it’s a winger who grew into a two-way threat who could be leaned on in all situations. Dvorak, on the other hand, dipped right into replacement-level territory shortly after that comparable season. And that path is extremely concerning, not just for a No. 1 pick but for a player signed to a $7.45 million AAV for the next six years.

The middle ground has him somewhere in the Alex Killorn-Reilly Smith territory, which is essentially a complementary middle-six forward. It’s not the worst position — championship-caliber rosters still need those types of players — but the Rangers need him to be more, especially if he is going to be a part of this retool.

Lafrenière has shown it’s possible — go back to 2023-24, when his comps put him on a similar path to Mika Zibanejad and Travis Konency. It’s just that he hasn’t backed it up; he is back to the 1.90 points per 60 range, which has become his sweet spot in three of the last four years. His shot volume, scoring chance generation and overall play-driving have also dipped since that breakout.

There is a path back to that caliber, though. To his credit, Lafrenière has made more offensive plays than the scoresheet reflects. With more emphasis on driving to the net at five-on-five, he is expected to be closer to 16 goals this season based on shot quality (which would bring his scoring rate up to about 2.33 points per 60). But it doesn’t help that he isn’t getting set up by as many high-danger passes this season, which was a key part of his success in 2023-24 thanks to passing from both Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck.

Lafrenière can’t control his teammates’ passing, but he can elevate his own. In 2023-24, Lafrenière’s high-danger passing stood out league-wide at five-on-five with a rate of 2.66 passes per 60 according to AllThreeZones tracking. That pace stacked up to Panarin and David Pastrnak. It wasn’t too far off from Jordan Kyrou, either, who was one of his player comps from that season. This season, to compare, AllThreeZones has him with 0.985 high-danger passes per 60.

That isn’t the only puck-moving element of his game that has eroded over the past couple of seasons, either. In 2023-24, Lafrenière transitioned into the offensive zone with control at a high rate and turned those entries into chances. This year, it’s changed somewhat by design, as the coaches have worked to build up the Rangers’ forechecking and dump-and-chase game. And to Lafrenière’s credit, he is recovering a lot of dump-ins this season, generating more off the cycle and getting more defensive-zone puck touches. Those are all good to have, but they can’t come at the expense of what made him so special two seasons ago. Finding that blend would take his game up a notch, but that has only been seen in glimpses.

Instead, the shift in playing style has suppressed both his scoring and the team’s on-ice production in his minutes compared to just two seasons ago. And that is part of what opens the door to that Dvorak path.

At this point, Lafrenière’s career can’t be defined by whether he lives up to the hype of a No. 1 pick. Those days have passed. It’s whether he can consistently be a top-six-caliber winger. As much as it’s his responsibility to become the best version of himself, the team shares the blame here. So the question isn’t just whether he can reach an adjusted high-end of the spectrum, it’s if the Rangers can get that level out of him.

Owen Power

Power is just one of five defensemen drafted at No. 1 this century, along with Erik Johnson (2006), Aaron Ekblad (2014), Rasmus Dahlin (2018) and Matthew Schaefer (2025). What also set him apart from most top draft picks was the decision to stay in the NCAA for his draft-plus-one season instead of jumping right to the NHL. And he absolutely thrived in his last year with Michigan, which helped boost him up to No. 1 in Scott Wheeler’s top NHL prospects under 23 in 2022.

That season helped solidify the projection that Power had the chops to become a true No. 1 defenseman at the NHL level. And that projection still seemed like a possibility after an impressive rookie year, where Power finished as a finalist for the Calder Trophy. He logged big minutes, with an average ice time of 23:48 in Year 1, and put his puck-moving ability on display with 35 points in 79 games.

He didn’t have the strongest list of matches that year as a 20-year-old, but names like Dahlin, Hampus Lindholm, Mikhail Sergachev and Zach Werenski all had above-average similarity scores, while Tyler Myers and Travis Hamonic represented the worst-case scenario.

The problem is, he hasn’t stayed on that elite path. He isn’t even thought of as an impactful enough No. 2, which held him outside of the top 150 in this year’s Player Tiers after making the cut in 2024. The range of outcomes, based on his play as a 23-year-old, now includes Sergachev and Brent Seabrook as the best-case, while Olli Maatta and Carl Gunarsson are the worst-case scenario. The middle ground is Cam Fowler / Erik Johnson / Alex Edler territory.

The Sergachev comp feels extremely fitting, since his road to becoming a No. 1 in Tampa Bay was blocked by Victor Hedman (while Power’s is by Dahlin). Power, like Sergachev earlier in his career, isn’t his team’s power-play quarterback, which has limited his scoring potential. But the one benefit of not being the team’s true No. 1 is not having to take on as hefty a workload. And in theory, that should free him up to play to his strengths.

There is just a lot of room for improvement on both sides of the puck.

Power’s surroundings obviously contribute to his current situation, considering some of the ups and downs in Buffalo over the years and who he has been partnered with at times. But there are also individual adjustments that would go a long way.

Power doesn’t play like a 6-foot-6 defenseman. It’s less about the fact that he isn’t super physical — because that really has never been a part of his game, anyway — and more that he doesn’t use his size to take control of play. Power should be using his size to close gaps and deny opponents entry over the blue line. He can use his body (and reach) to create more separation in the defensive zone, too. Finding ways to use his physical attributes would unlock another level of defense and put him in a position to play to his strengths: transitioning the puck out of the defensive end with control.

That defensive game can take time to develop — it did for Sergachev, even with Hedman and Ryan McDonagh ahead of him on the depth chart in the early goings of his career. But he eventually proved that he had more in the tank in Tampa Bay, and now in Utah, where he has become a true No. 1.

To Power’s credit, he has been improving on the fly this season. His defense has actually ticked up as the Sabres shot up the standings over the last month-plus of action. The key now is playing at that level more consistently.

As it stands, the Sabres are slightly worse defensively in Power’s five-on-five minutes. But there is just under half a season to change that. With more defensive breakups should come more opportunities to thread the needle offensively. That would ultimately elevate his scoring, which is on pace to be his lowest yet (26 points). That would likely lessen the similarity score between him and Maatta, which would brighten up his outlook tremendously.

Expectations are part of the package of being drafted first, and signing a seven-year contract with a $8.35 million cap hit in his second NHL season only amped up the pressure for Power. The raw skills and potential are still there; it’s just a matter of finally taking the leap — even if it comes later than anticipated.

Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones, Dom Luszczyszyn and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.